NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ADDRESSES PROCEDURAL ISSUES ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000106

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU AZ AM
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ADDRESSES PROCEDURAL ISSUES ON
ARMENIA-TURKEY, MULLS STATEMENT ON NK

Classified By: DCM Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The Armenian National Assembly (NA) overwhelmingly
approved on February 25 an amendment to the Law on
International Treaties articulating mechanisms for withdrawal
from agreements for which instruments of ratification have
not been exchanged. This week the body also received from
the executive the Armenia-Turkey normalization protocols for
possible ratification, and began to clarify procedures for
deliberation. The NA also took up, then shelved, a draft
parliamentary statement which condemns the war rhetoric of
Azeri officials, but which also contains problematic wording
that could be easily misinterpreted as a recognition of
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) independence. END SUMMARY.

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AMENDMENTS TO THE LAW ON INTERNATIONAL TREATIES
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2. (SBU) During its February 19 session, the Committee on
Foreign Affairs approved the draft amendment to the Law on
International Treaties initiated by the Government,
articulating the procedures through which Armenia could exit
from international agreements before they enter into force.
The Government had requested that Parliament discuss the
draft on an expedited basis, and on February 25 the National
Assembly overwhelmingly adopted the amendments.


3. (SBU) Most observers interpreted the amendments as a
simple signal to Turkey that Armenia will not wait
indefinitely for Turkish ratification of the protocols,
pointing out that the articulated mechanisms for withdrawal
are already available to the GOAM, if not explicit in
legislation. However, some local analysts noted with
interest that the amendments clarify procedures for
withdrawal from an agreement post-ratification but before the
agreement enters into force. Some observers suggested to us
that this could indicate that the GOAM is considering
ratifying the protocols before Turkey in order to maximize
pressure on the Turks to follow suit, while still allowing
itself an out should the Turkish parliament fail to take
action in a timely way. Moreover, the NA made one small
change to the Government's draft, adding language clarifying
that, even in the event of suspension, the process could be
subsequently resumed -- an unnecessary legislative provision,
but perhaps included as a softening signal that even closed
doors can be re-opened.


4. (SBU) In addition to the mixed messages within the
amendments, we have received mixed signals from Armenian
officials regarding the prospects for early Armenian
ratification. Before the amendments reached Parliament,
Deputy Speaker Samvel Nikoyan (a leader of the ruling party
faction) said during a media interview that he thought
Armenia should ratify first, only to clarify the following
day that he was only expressing a personal opinion.
Subsequently, a less prominent Republican, Rafik Petrosian,
echoed Nikoyan's forward-leaning rhetoric on early
ratification: "I think the protraction of the process is not
necessary. I believe Armenia should hold the initiative till
the end. It's my personal opinion and the opinion of the
majority of Republicans. The Republican faction is always
ready to consider the protocols in the National Assembly and
ratify those. The more we drag on the process, the worse."
Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian told DCM some time
ago that he personally was advocating early ratification
during MFA deliberations.


5. (C) On the margins of the Foreign Relations Committee
meeting on February 19, Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh
Kocharian, present to field questions from the MPs, offered
more evidence that early Armenian ratification might be under
consideration. During a break in the discussions and away
from the crowd, in response to our own questioning about the
purpose in pushing through amendments that really only
clarify options already available, Kocharian focused on the
language allowing for withdrawal after NA ratification but
before entry into force. "Why is that language included?" he
asked rhetorically, then answering his own question, saying
that President Sargsian "is considering early ratification."
Kocharian's, Kirakossian's, Nikoyan's, and Petrosian's
comments, however, remain at odds with the public and most of
the private statements from other officials that Turkey must
ratify first.


YEREVAN 00000106 002 OF 002


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PROTOCOLS
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6. (SBU) On February 19 the Foreign Affairs Committee made
two procedural decisions regarding the Armenia-Turkey
protocols. First, the Committee applied to the Speaker of
the National Assembly with a written request that he not
exercise his right to bring the protocols onto the NA agenda
before the Committee fully deliberates and reaches its
conclusion. Secondly, the Committee designated a working
group of its members to come up with suggestions on how to
proceed with Committee deliberations, to include
recommendations regarding possible public hearings. There
was no discussion of timing.

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STATEMENT ON NK
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7. (SBU) During the same session, the Committee on Foreign
Affairs gave a positive conclusion to a draft statement that
condemns threats of war by Azeri officials. In the
preambular language, there is wording that could be
misinterpreted to suggest Armenian recognition of NK
independence:

--"Underlining that the Nagorno-Karabakh's declaration of
independence and establishment process is completely in line
with international law and the USSR legislation of that
period,

--Stressing the establishment of two equally legal
independent states - Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan
Republic -on the territory of the former Soviet Republic of
Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union ..."


8. (SBU) Although the draft statement was initiated by the
nationalist ARF Dashnaktutiun, it was subsequently endorsed
by the Cabinet on December 3, 2009. Dashnak MPs Artsvik
Minasian and Armen Rustamian, as well as Deputy Speaker of
Parliament Samvel Nikoyan, separately confirmed to us that
the text of the draft statement was a result of a consensus
reached between the National Assembly and the Government.
With the positive conclusion from the Committee of Foreign
Affairs, the draft statement entered the agenda of the
February 22-25 session of the National Assembly.


9. (C) However, during a meeting with the Ambassador, the
President's Deputy Chief of Staff, Vigen Sargsian, expressed
surprise that the statement had made it onto the NA agenda
saying, "That wasn't supposed to go anywhere." He assured
the Ambassador that it would not proceed any further. After
one week, the statement has not resurfaced for further
consideration, as the Speaker did not use his prerogative to
introduce it for discussion, automatically postponing
consideration until the next four-day session starting on
March 15. Bills in the National Assembly can be postponed in
this manner indefinitely.
YOVANOVITCH