Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10WINDHOEK3
2010-01-14 16:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Windhoek
Cable title:  

Namibians Skeptical That Zimbabwe Will Cut Off Power

Tags:  ECON ENRG DOE ZI WA 
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R 141644Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
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INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000003 

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AF/S FOR B WALCH & P GWYN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/14
TAGS: ECON ENRG DOE ZI WA
SUBJECT: Namibians Skeptical That Zimbabwe Will Cut Off Power

CLASSIFIED BY: Dennise Mathieu, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000003

SIPDIS
AF/S FOR B WALCH & P GWYN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/14
TAGS: ECON ENRG DOE ZI WA
SUBJECT: Namibians Skeptical That Zimbabwe Will Cut Off Power

CLASSIFIED BY: Dennise Mathieu, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B)


1. (SBU) Summary: Despite recent news reports that Zimbabwe's
Energy Minister had ordered his country's utility ZESA to stop
exports of electricity to Namibia except from Hwange, ZESA
continues "business as usual" in providing Namibia power.
Namibia's national power utility NamPower and ZESA signed
agreements in February 2007 in which NamPower agreed to lend USD
$40 million to ZESA to refurbish its Hwange power plant. In
exchange, ZESA promised to pay back the loan by supplying 150MW of
power for five years. Since the initial news reports, Zimbabwean
officials have distanced themselves from the Energy Minister's
statements. High level NamPower officials have told emboffs they
are very skeptical that ZESA will renege on the deal, a commercial
arrangement that helped bail out ZESA when it had no access to hard
currency. Our understanding of the NamPower ZESA arrangement is
that ZESA could not simply choose to stop or restrict power exports
without violating the 2007 contract. End Summary.




2. (U) In February 2007, Namibia's state-owned power utility
NamPower and ZESA entered into a power purchase agreement to
provide Namibia with 150 MW of power. In addition, NamPower agreed
to loan ZESA USD $40 million to help refurbish ZESA's Hwange
coal-fired plant. In exchange, ZESA promised to repay the loan by
supplying NamPower with 150MW per year for five years.




3. (U) On January 13, Namibian newspapers, including the
state-owned New Era newspaper, reported that Zimbabwean Energy
Minister Elias Mudzuri had ordered the power utility Zimbabwe
Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) to stop exporting power to
Namibia due to power shortages within Zimbabwe. According to the
news reports, the Hwange plant has been producing well below its
480MW capacity in recent months. Mudzuri reportedly stated he
ordered the halt of electricity exports because ZESA had been
forced to import power and then re-export it to Namibia to meet its
contractual obligations. In a telephone interview with The
Namibian, Energy Minister Mudzuri allegedly explained that he had
ordered ZESA only supply power from Hwange.





4. (U) Early on January 13, NamPower spokesperson John Kaimu told
the Namibian Broadcasting Company (NBC) that his company had not
received any official communication from ZESA on the matter. Later
he told the Namibian newspaper that the power purchase agreement
(PPA) was between ZESA and NamPower and not between Hwange and
NamPower. By midday on January 13, Zimbabwean authorities seemed
to be distancing themselves from Mudzuri's comments. Zimbabwe's
Ambassador to Namibia Chipo Zindoga told the Namibian media that
ZESA "always supplied Namibia even when Hwange was facing
operational challenges. "




5. (C) On July 14, Ambassador Mathieu met with NamPower Managing
Director (CEO) Paulinus Shilamba and General Manager for Power
Generation Kahenge Simson Haulofu, with econoff in attendance.
Shilamba explained that the NamPower -ZESA deal consisted of two
separate commercial agreements, the USD $40 million loan and a
separate power purchase power agreement. The PPA, he explained,
committed ZESA (and not the Hwange plant exclusively) to supply 150
MW of power for five years. Shilamba emphasized that ZESA choosing
not to supply power would be a violation of the contract.




6. (C) The CEO expressed skepticism that ZESA would renege on the
agreement. He speculated that GOZ officials would not easily
forget that in 2007, when the deal was struck, Zimbabwe and ZESA
could not get access to foreign currency and NamPower was the only
organization that came to ZESA's aid. Haulofu stressed that he did
not believe ZESA would "dishonor" the agreement and that the
Zimbabwean cabinet would not let one minister (Mudzuri) abrogate an
international agreement.




7. (C) In a follow-up meeting with econoff, Shilamba and Haulofu
elaborated on the NamPower -ZESA arrangement. The two explained
that the USD $40 million loan had been put into a Botswana bank to
prevent Zimbabwean officials from diverting the funds. They
explained that the USD $40 million had been almost fully disbursed
(with the remaining monies already committed). The agreement
established that all disbursements were paid directly to the
contractors refurbishing the Hwange plant and not to ZESA.

WINDHOEK 00000003 002 OF 002


NamPower had the right to review the progress on the refurbishment
of the plant. According to Haulofu, three of four generation units
at Hwange have been refurbished; the fourth is awaiting on
long-lead parts in order to complete refurbishment. The problems
at Hwange, Haulofu stressed, are due to coal shortages and not
because the plant was not refurbished. Shilamba added that even if
there were problems at Hwange, ZESA still has an obligation to
deliver power.




8. (C) Haulofu speculated that Energy Minister Elias Mudzuri's
comments that power for Namibia should only come from Hwange may
have stemmed from ZESA's recent Bulawayo deal. Under that deal,
according to news sources, Botswana Power Company (BPC) loaned USD
$8 million to help refurbish and provide coal to a power plant in
Zimbabwe's second city of Bulawayo. In exchange, BPC will get 40
MW of power from the Bulawayo plant exclusively. Haulofu noted
Mudzuri probably wanted to make the Namibian deal (which was
negotiated prior to Mudzuri's tenure) similar to the Bulawayo deal.





9. (C) Comment: NamPower generates less than half the power that
Namibia demands for domestic consumption. ZESA's supply of 150 MW
represents approximately a third of Namibia's energy consumption.
While NamPower has other PPAs in place, Namibia would face serious
challenges and potential power outages if ZESA cut its exports
abruptly. At a minimum, energy costs for NamPower would increase
substantially. Shilamba acknowledged that Mudzuri's statements had
created panic amongst some of NamPower's larger customers. He added
that he and his management team have had to reassure many of
NamPower's clients that they are not facing imminent power
shortages/outages. Shilamba and Haulufo appeared genuinely
confident that ZESA would not violate the terms of the 2007
agreements. More recent public statements by Zimbabwean officials
both in Harare and Windhoek seem to support their position. End
Comment
MATHIEU