LITHUANIA SKEPTICAL ON FURTHER ENGAGEMENT WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000059

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020
TAGS: PREL XH RU BO LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA SKEPTICAL ON FURTHER ENGAGEMENT WITH
BELARUS AND RUSSIA

REF: VILNIUS 55

Classified By: DCM Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of
Eastern Neighborhood Policy, Jonas Grinevicius, discussed
current Lithuanian policy toward both Belarus and Russia with
Embassy officers January 25. He stressed that President
Grybauskaite and the GOL are "very much on the same page."
They view relations with Belarus and Russia as functional and
necessary but that there is not a lot of energy to push
relations further than where they are now. Despite this
skepticism, however, Grinevicius stressed that there is no
need to be "loudly negative" either. End Summary.

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BELARUS
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2. (C) According to Grinevicius, both President Grybauskaite
and the GOL are "disappointed" in Belarus -- in particular
with the potential Lithuania-Belarus border treaty agreement.
He said Lithuania "broke spears and twisted arms" to bring
an agreement to the table only to see it whither because of
Belarusian inaction on earlier promises of openness.


3. (C) Grinevicius said there is no energy in the President's
office or the GOL to push the agreement further at this time
for several reasons. One, the requirement that Lithuanians
register with local police authorities once they get across
the border is too onerous; and two, there is concern that
once a Lithuanian gets a successful business or business
relationship up and running, the Government of Belarus will
step in and drive it out. He also said he suspects the
Belarusian KGB had a hand in vetoing any movement toward an
agreement fearing Lithuanian influence, business or
otherwise, inside its borders.


4. (C) In addition, Grinevicius revealed the Lithuanian MFA's
own concern about increased business ties with Belarus. He
said there is a worry that Lithuanian businessmen might bring
back from Belarus the old Soviet mentality or method of
conducting business, i.e. bribes and corruption as common
practice.


5. (C) Grinevicius said another obstacle to improved
bilateral ties is the lack of cooperation on the case of
Vladimir Uskhopchik, whom the Lithuanians want to extradite
from Belarus for his involvement in the attempted January 13,
1991 overthrow of the new Lithuanian independent government.
Legally, Grinevicius admitted, Lithuania does not have a
case, but he said the extradition of Uskhopchik is the "right
thing to do."

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RUSSIA
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6. (C) Grinevicius also discussed the current state of
Lithuania-Russia relations, again stressing that President
Grybauskaite and the GOL are in agreement. Lithuania is not
"loudly negative" about the relationship but neither is there
much enthusiasm to push it further. He said the Lithuanians
do not appreciate Russian media attempts to portray the
Baltic states as "hysterical" and a burden to both the EU and
NATO.


7. (C) Grinevicius characterized Prime Minister Putin and
President Medvedev not as leaders of separate "camps" but
instead as spokesmen to different facets of Russian society.
Putin speaks to 80% of the Russian people -- the older, less
sophisticated mass that still view the Soviet days fondly.
Medvedev speaks to the other 20% -- educated, perhaps English
speaking, younger -- who want to engage with the West. It's
not a mixed message, just a different audience. Putin is
still firmly in command and still driving toward Russian
dominance of its neighbors.


8. (C) Comment: Grinevicius commented several times on the
close alignment of the President's office and the MFA
regarding Lithuanian foreign policy. When discussing
possible replacements for FM Usackas, he made clear that
whoever it is will be the "President's man." (Note: MP
Audronius Azubalis was nominated to the Foreign Minister
position on January 26 (reftel)).
DERSE