Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10TEGUCIGALPA97
2010-01-29 23:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Cable title:  

HONDURAS' VISION OF THE COUNTRY 2038

Tags:  ECON EFIN EAID PGOV SOCI HO 
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INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR JTF-BRAVO PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000097 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PGOV SOCI HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAS' VISION OF THE COUNTRY 2038

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 b and d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000097

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PGOV SOCI HO
SUBJECT: HONDURAS' VISION OF THE COUNTRY 2038

Classified By: Ambassador Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Before his election, President Porfirio
"Pepe" Lobo circulated a long-term plan called Vision of the
Country 2038 and National Plan 2022. It was submitted to and
passed by the outgoing Congress and signed into law by
President Lobo during his inauguration. The document
includes a draft law creating a super ministry, the Technical
Secretariat of Planning and International Cooperation, which
will manage all planning processes. The Vision establishes
22 goals of where Honduras should be in the year 2038 whereas
the National Plan focuses on the strategic guidelines for
eleven planning areas that will be the heart of the planning
process. The implementation of specific policies to achieve
the goals of the Vision and National Plan are not discussed
in the document and little insight as to the future policies
of the Lobo administration can be discerned from the
document. The current situation confronting Honduras makes
it difficult to predict events in the coming weeks let alone
28 years into the future and the document does not discuss
how it will afford all these programs. The international
community, which was not party to the process of creating
this document, may have reservations about being asked to
fund its implementation. Nevertheless, the document may
provide strategic parameters prepared by the Hondurans
themselves that may be helpful to donor agencies that seek to
reengage in the future. End Summary.


2. (U) Before his election, President Lobo circulated a
long-term plan called Vision of the Country 2038 and National
Plan 2022. The Vision is a 28 year picture of where the
country should be as defined by a wide range of tangible
indicators. The 28-year Vision is composed of two 12-year
National Plans and a four year transition to a new Vision.
Each 12-year National Plan will be made up of three 4-year
Government Plans which are timed to coincide with the cycle
of presidential elections and which will outline how each
administration will try and achieve the goals of the Vision

and National Plan. The document also includes a draft law
creating a super ministry, the Technical Secretariat of
Planning and International Cooperation, which will manage all
the planning processes. The original formulation of the
document began during the administration of Jose Manuel
Zelaya and continued during the de facto regime. (Note: One
of the principal authors is thought to be Zelaya's Minister
of Governance Victor Meza. End Note.) The final document is
thought to have been a cut and paste of several other
planning documents created over the past few years.

--------------
The Vision of the Country - 2038
--------------


3. (U) The Vision establishes 22 goals of where Honduras
should be in the year 2038 covering the concepts of: an
educated and healthy Honduras without extreme poverty, a
Honduras that is developing democracy in security and without
violence, a productive Honduras that generates dignified
employment while taking advantage of natural resources in a
sustainable manner and reducing environmental vulnerability,
and envisioning a modern state that is transparent,
responsible, efficient and competitive. The Vision also
delineates the principles on which the planning process will
be based.

--------------
The National Plan - 2022
--------------


4. (U) The National Plan focuses on the strategic
guidelines for eleven planning areas that will be the heart
of the planning process. The eleven planning areas are: 1)
sustainable development of the population, 2) democracy,
citizenship and governance, 3) reduction of poverty, 4)
education and culture, 5) health 6) security, 7) regional
development, natural resources and the environment, 8)
infrastructure, 9) macroeconomic stability, 10)
competitiveness, national image and development, and 11)
mitigation of climate change. An annex to the document
includes 58 tangible indicators mostly developed by various
international organizations (such as the Rate of Demographic
Dependence) to track progress in achieving goals. These
indicators show the current base rate and the hoped for
progress for each measurement during the next three plans of
government (2013, 2017, and 2022) and at the end of the

vision period (2038).


5. (U) Each planning area of the National Plan has its own
chapter in the document outlining the background behind the
current situation, the biggest challenges faced by planners
and the goals to be achieved during the period of the plan.
These chapters appear to have been drafted by different
authors as they vary in length, style and content. The
chapter on natural resources and the environment goes into
great detail on the legal basis for environmental agreements
(international treaties and the Honduran Constitution),
description of the various river basins in Honduras, etc. for
12 pages before getting to the biggest challenges while the
chapter on security has only three paragraphs of background.
Some chapters contradict others.


6. (U) Very few specific policies to achieve the goals
contained in the National Plan are discussed and little
insight as to the future policies of the Lobo administration
can be discerned from the document. The language of the
document is often vague and oddly structured such that a wide
range of interpretations could be made. Apparently, the
specific policies and implementation tools will be part of
the Government Plans to be prepared by each administration.

--------------
Plan to be Incorporated into Law
--------------


7. (U) The vision document includes a draft of a new law
(Law for the Establishment of a Country Vision and the
Adoption of a National Plan for Honduras). The law would
include the basics of the Vision and Plan including the 2038
goals to be achieved and charge the Presidency of the
Republic with responsibility for strategic planning. The
Presidency would be supported by the National Plan Council,
the National Council of Competition and Innovation, the
Sectoral Cabinets and the Councils of Regional development.
These councils will be made up of a wide range of government
ministers, heads of private organizations, union leaders,
academics and other representatives of Civil Society.


8. (U) The law also includes a total reorganization of the
government planning process and the creation of a new
Planning Ministry (Technical Secretariat for Planning and
International Cooperation) which will replace the Technical
Secretariat for International Cooperation (SETCO) and other
diverse planning functions in government. There will also be
a Technical Sub-secretariat of Development Planning that will
take over planning responsibilities from UNAT and other
departments. Although included in the Economic Cabinet, the
Finance Ministry appears to play a minor role in the planning
function.


9. (U) The Councils of Regional Development will be
structured among the various river basins of the country and
not along political lines, crossing the boundaries of some
departments and municipalities. These councils are designed
to bring a wide range of citizens and local groups into the
planning process but how these development planning regions
will interact with local and departmental governments is
unclear.


10. (U) The Vision document was presented on January 11 to
the outgoing National Congress, which approved the bill at
its last session on January 13. President Lobo signed the
new legislation at his inauguration on January 27.

--------------
Implementation
--------------


11. (U) The implementation of specific policies to achieve
the goals of the Vision and National Plan are not discussed
in the document. Other than the very detailed creation of
the new Technical Secretariat, the document is very vague and
sometimes contradictory about implementation. There are
rumors that the document is a cut and paste of several other
documents which could account for these inconsistencies.
Implementation will apparently be left to the various
government plans. The Government Plan of the Lobo
administration (the first of seven under this 28-year Vision)
has not yet been presented.

--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (C) The document is bold in scope but its lack of
specifics and the amount of time it covers raise questions
about its utility. It is a long range plan to eliminate
persistent poverty (and the health and security problems
derived from poverty) that has afflicted Honduras despite
decades of foreign assistance. It counts on a wide range of
citizen participation touching all sectors of society and
forms an integral part of President Lobo's plans to unify the
country and create a government of national unity.


13. (C) At the same time, the current situation confronting
Honduras - a result of economic mismanagement, the coup
d'etat and the international financial crisis - make it
difficult to predict events in the coming weeks let alone 28
years into the future. The document does not discuss how
programs it recommends will be funded. The international
community, which was not party to the process of creating
this document, may have reservations about being asked to
fund its implementation. Nevertheless, the document may
provide strategic parameters prepared by the Hondurans
themselves that may be helpful to donor agencies that seek to
reengage in the future.
LLORENS