Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10TASHKENT100
2010-01-25 09:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

UZBEK PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: FINAL WRAP-UP

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM UZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNT #0100/01 0250927
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250926Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1779
INFO RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
UNCLAS TASHKENT 000100 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEK PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: FINAL WRAP-UP

REF: 09 TASHKENT 1651

UNCLAS TASHKENT 000100

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEK PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: FINAL WRAP-UP

REF: 09 TASHKENT 1651


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After the second round of parliamentary
elections took place in 39 constituencies on January 10,
Uzbekistan's Liberal-Democratic Party emerged with over 35% of the
seats in the Lower House of Parliament, the Oliy Majlis. Relative
party percentages remain almost unchanged from the previous
parliament, and Dilorom Toshmuhammadova was reelected as the
Speaker of the Lower House on January 22. Analysis of the
candidate list indicates that Uzbeks from a broad range of
occupations and backgrounds ran for office, and the newly elected
members of parliament (MPs) reflect some of the diversity of Uzbek
society. Parties approached the election campaign with a novel
spirit of competitiveness, but only time will tell whether that
spirit will live on in parliament. All in all, the elections can
best be interpreted as a tightly managed political exercise, with
some elements of "choice" at the margins. END SUMMARY.

SECOND ROUND VOTING


2. (U) In the first round of elections on December 27, 96
candidates received the required number of votes to claim their
seats without a run-off election. A second round of voting was
held on January 10 for the remaining 39 seats. In each of these 39
constituencies, voters chose between the two candidates who
received the most votes on December 27. According to the GOU's
statistics, there was 79.7% voter turn-out in the second round of
the elections, but it is likely that these numbers were inflated by
the widespread practice of proxy or "family" voting (see reftel).
Almost one third of the run-offs took place in the Ferghana
District. According to a contact from that region, many residents
of Ferghana crossed off all of the candidates on the ballot in the
first round of voting, a possible sign of disgruntlement and
frustration.

DEBUNKING THE CONSPIRACY THEORIES


3. (SBU) Conspiracy theories about the elections abound, but
(as is often the case with conspiracy theories) lack proof, and
require giant leaps of logic. No international observers witnessed
the second round of voting, and therefore the local independent
media has speculated that the run-offs were engineered precisely so
that any irregularities would take place away from prying
international eyes. However, the available evidence suggests that

the run-off elections were probably just what they seemed. By
examining candidate lists, listening to the parties, and observing
the voting at the polls, our conclusion is that the elections,
though flawed, were not just a sham, totally orchestrated by the
central government. The candidate list was restricted by the
government, but the people running for office were the usual
suspects for a parliamentary election-local politicians and
community organizers, heads of agricultural collectives, and
general pillars of the community, including doctors, lawyers,
businessmen, and school directors. In fact, one of the Embassy's
Democracy Commission grantees, the chairwoman of the Water Users'
Association in the Ferghana Valley, is one of the newly elected
MPs.


4. (SBU) Based on what we do know, the following scenario
seems to be the best explanation of how the electoral process works
in Uzbekistan: First, the parties identify citizens whom they see
as good parliamentary candidates. (NOTE: The parties are made up
of those politically active citizens who have "bought in" to the
GOU's political message-e.g. the idea that Uzbekistan needs a
strong central government and "evolutionary" progress towards
democracy. Opposition candidates need not apply.) Second, the
parties likely submit their lists of potential candidates to the
GOU security apparatus for vetting. Again, any signs of opposition
or dissent would be deal-breakers. And finally, the government
conducts the elections themselves as correctly as possible, secure
in the knowledge that no opposition candidates are even on the
ballot. Following the theory that the simplest explanation is
usually the best, this scenario makes far more sense than the idea
that the entire elections process is a fa????ade masking a process
that was engineered from the outset.

LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY DOMINATES


5. (U) The Liberal-Democratic Party, considered the party of
entrepreneurs and businessmen and the party most closely associated
with Islom Karimov, will dominate the Oliy Majlis with 53 seats
(about 35% of the total). Since 10% of the seats in the Lower
House were reserved for representatives from the Ecological
Movement-chosen separately at an Environmental Movement convention-
the Liberal-Democratic Party actually won more than 39% of
contested seats. The People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan
earned 32 seats (about 21% of the total),the "Milliy Tiklanish"
(National Revival) Democratic Party took 31 seats (about 20.6%),
and the "Adolat" (Justice) Social Democratic Party took 19 seats

(about 12.6%). This breakdown of seats is virtually unchanged from
the previous parliament-the main differences are the addition of
Ecological Movement MPs, the absence of independent MPs, and the
slight gain in the standings of the People's Democratic Party of
Uzbekistan (PDP). (In the previous parliament, the PDP trailed
Milliy Tiklanish by one seat; now they have taken second place by a
margin of one seat.) Interestingly, we learned that although
independent nominees were not allowed on the ballot this year, at
least one party (Adolat) nominated several candidates that are not
party members-so, in a sense, independent candidates could run, as
long as they were nominated by an official party. On January 22,
the new parliament was convened and Dilorom Tashmuhammedova was
reelected to her post as Speaker of the Lower House. Five vice
speakers-the heads of each of the four political parties and the
Ecological Movement-were also chosen during the first session of
parliament.


6. (SBU) A spirit of competitiveness among the parties
reared its head for the first time during this parliamentary
election campaign. The local U.S. representative of the National
Democratic Institute commented that he thought party members had
really taken his campaign pointers to heart. He suggested that
candidates visit voters and leave campaign literature with the
candidate's name and picture, and a clear, pithy slogan-and many
candidates definitely did distribute campaign literature meeting
those specifications. Each of the parties vaguely follows an
international party model (e.g. the Social Democratic Party sees
itself as a sister organization to Social Democratic parties in
Europe),which theoretically gives them a great deal of latitude
for debate. However, in practice the parties do not engage in
dissent with the executive branch. Party representatives claim
that they are learning to exercise influence on legislation and
policy, as part of Uzbekistan's "evolutionary" transition to
democracy, and they certainly have been more vocal in their
inter-party disagreements. It will be interesting to see whether
their newfound sense of power and competitiveness will influence
their actions and interactions when parliament is convened.

MANY LAWYERS, MORE WOMEN, FEW INCUMBENTS


7. (U) The new line-up of deputies will include 37
economists and 34 lawyers (24.7% and 22.7% percent of the total
number of deputies, respectively),although Central Election
Commission Chairman Mirza-Ulugbek Abdusalomov emphasized that "the
lower house represents nearly all segments of society." The number
of female deputies in the Oliy Majlis increased from 21 (about
17.5% of the 120 member parliament) to 33 (22% of the 150 member
parliament). Only 31.3% of the elected members of parliament are
incumbents, but local political experts believe that they will
provide sufficient institutional knowledge to ensure a smooth
transition. This seemingly low number of incumbents should not be
interpreted as a popular rebuke of the previous parliament; in
fact, only 53 incumbent parliamentarians were on the ballot. Of
the 53 that ran for reelection, 47 won. The big question (for
which we have no answer) is whether those 67 former deputies chose
not to run for reelection for personal reasons, or whether their
parties chose not to nominate them for political reasons.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: The elections were neither free nor fair,
but perhaps they were not wholly worthless. The GOU kept
opposition candidates off the ballot and controlled the media, as
they always do. Ironically, though, our sense is that the election
outcome would probably not change very much in a fully free and
fair election. Although many ordinary Uzbek citizens are unhappy
with the state of affairs in the country-especially when it affects
their pocketbooks-few of them actually oppose the government at
this point. Whether this reflects the placid political culture or
deeper fear of repression, or both, is the subject of constant
analysis. We can only hope that "democratic exercises" like these
parliamentary elections will be small building blocks for real
democracy in the future. END COMMENT.
NORLAND