A/S BLAKE'S MEETING WITH NORWEGIAN SPECIAL ENVOY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 012081

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020
TAGS: CN IN NP PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: A/S BLAKE'S MEETING WITH NORWEGIAN SPECIAL ENVOY
TO THE NEPAL PEACE PROCESS AMBASSADOR TORENG

Classified By: ROBLAKE


1. (C) SUMMARY: Norway's Special Envoy to the Nepal peace
process, Ambassador Tore Toreng, met with Assistant Secretary
for South and Central Asian Affairs (SCA) Robert Blake on
February 3 to discuss his mission and prospects for
coordination among members of the international community.
Toreng emphasized the need for contingency planning among
like-minded countries in the event that the Constituent
Assembly fails to meet the May 28 deadline to draft the
constitution. Blake and Toreng agreed on the need to offer
the Maoists a way forward, as well as the importance of
beginning discussions within the international community on
appropriate benchmarks for UNMIN's departure. Blake
instructed SCA/INSB to work with Embassy Kathmandu on a draft
that could be shared with Norway, the UN and others. END
SUMMARY.

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Toreng Calls for Coordination and Contingency Planning
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2. (C) In a February 3 meeting with SCA Assistant Secretary
Blake, Ambassador Tore Toreng, Norway's Special Envoy to the
Nepal peace process, stressed the need for international
coordination on Nepal, including the preparation of
contingency plans in the event that the peace process is not
completed on schedule. (As an example, Toreng raised the
hypothetical scenario of the Government of Nepal (GON)
resorting to presidential rule with the support of the Nepal
Army, if the constitution is not completed by the May 28
deadline.) Noting that he perceives a new commitment among
the main political leaders in Nepal, Toreng suggested that
the drafting process had recently progressed far enough that
a stripped-down version of the constitution might be finished
by the May 28 deadline, with some key issues, such as the
federal structure of the state, left for further discussion.


3. (C) Toreng noted that Norwegian Minister of the
Environment and International Development Erik Solheim wants
to work with like-minded countries to play a supportive role
in the peace process without taking over the agenda.
According to Toreng, Solheim, who plans to visit Kathmandu on
March 22, wants to adopt in Nepal the approach he used in Sri
Lanka of regular high-level visits to Nepal to maintain
momentum in the peace process and strengthen the
international community's "disaster preparedness" and
contingency planning in the event progress falters. Blake
told Toreng that he will stop in Nepal on his way to the
SAARC summit in late April, and agreed that periodic
telephone consultations among key headquarters officials
regarding Nepal is a good idea. Blake stressed the
importance of keeping the United Nations involved in the
peace process, as the Nepalis listen to the UN headquarters
in particular, and noted that the upcoming visit by Under
Secretary for Political Affairs Lynn Pascoe would be helpful
in that regard.


4. (C) Toreng further emphasized that there is a need for
contingency planning regarding the closure of UN Mission in
Nepal (UNMIN). Toreng commented that the UN's Tamrat Samuel
envisions 5,000 - 6,000 Maoist combatants being integrated
into the security forces. If that benchmark is reached,
Toreng suggested, then that could be the signal that UNMIN is
complete. Toreng proposed that the U.S. and like-minded
countries begin to coordinate on framing clear benchmarks for
the closure of UNMIN. A/S Blake agreed with Toreng's call
for contingency planning regarding UNMIN and instructed
SCA/INSB to work with Post on this issue.

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Working with India and China
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5. (C) Toreng reported that Solheim and others see a change
in political climate in New Delhi regarding Nepal, which may
allow for better coordination with India on the peace

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process. A key issue, he noted, is how to get India "playing
the same tune" as the rest of the international community on
Nepal. Toreng emphasized that the Maoists need assurances -
enshrined in the constitution - before they will be willing
to empty the cantonments completely. By offering messages of
support, the international community can bolster those Nepali
political actors including moderates in the Maoists who are
working for consensus, he noted. Toreng said that he had
recently met with the Indian Ambassador to Nepal in
Kathmandu, and with the Indian Permanent Representative to
the United Nations, and found them both supportive of a
common approach to the Nepal peace process. He reported that
he plans to travel to New Delhi the week of February 8 for
consultations with National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar
Menon, who, Toreng commented, seems cooperative on Nepal.


6. (C) A/S Blake agreed with Toreng's assessment of progress
in Nepal's peace process in the last month or two. Blake
emphasized that the Indians welcome our coordinating with
them - but want it done quietly. He noted that the Indian
views of Nepal are shaped in part by having to keep one eye
on China; for example, Indian officials have expressed
concerns to us over Maoist leader Prachanda's recent trips to
China. Toreng reported that he had recently spoken with the
Chinese Permanent Representative to the United Nations, and
observed that the Chinese, while still circumspect in their
public pronouncements on Nepali politics, have recently begun
to issue statements in support of the peace process. A/S
Blake assured Toreng that he plans to raise the Nepal peace
process with Chinese officials during his planned visit to
Beijing in March.

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Showing the Maoists a Way Forward
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7. (C) Toreng attributed recent progress to a shift in power
toward the democratic faction of the Maoist party. He
opined that the 2006 "understanding" between G.P. Koirala and
Prachanda has probably played a positive role, as well, and
that the recent momentum in the peace process is rooted in
these two figures' motivation to achieve results. The ailing
G.P. Koirala sees the completion of Nepal's peace process as
his legacy, Toreng stated, and Prachanda needs to deliver
results in order to keep the Maoist party from fracturing.
The need to show progress in advance of the United Nations
discussion on UNMIN, Toreng added, may have also played a
role in the recent progress. He cautioned, however, that
some forces in Nepal do not want a successful outcome to the
peace process. In particular, he pointed to splits within
the Maoist party, noting rumors that Prachanda was concerned
that hardliners among the Maoists may target him for
assassination. Toreng emphasized the need for the
international community to support work toward consensus in
order to bolster more moderate forces, such as Prachanda.


8. (C) Blake emphasized that the U.S. is trying to show the
Maoists a way forward, adding that we have offered them a
clear path - including a set of written benchmarks - for
removal from our terrorism lists. Toreng agreed that the
international community should clearly articulate its
concerns and expectations, especially regarding the Young
Communist League (YCL),to the Maoists. He noted that the
Norwegians have a long history of contact with the Maoists
and can thus communicate clearly and directly with the Maoist
leadership. Toreng added that Norway had previously
succeeded in working with youth groups to sign a "common
platform", and that there were opportunities - through
similar efforts - to move the YCL toward a more positive role.
CLINTON