Former President Lagos Discusses Honduras, Latin America

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTIAGO 000017

SIPDIS
DEPT OF LABOR FOR SECRETARY SOLIS
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC
AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/15
TAGS: PREL PGOV OAS HO CI
SUBJECT: Former President Lagos Discusses Honduras, Latin America
with A/S Valenzuela

REF: A) 09 SANTIAGO 831; B) 09 SANTIAGO 935

CLASSIFIED BY: Simons, Paul, AMB, State; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: During a January 11 meeting with A/S Valenzuela,
former President Ricardo Lagos offered any help he can provide in
persuading de facto Honduran leader Roberto Micheletti to step down
prior to the inauguration of president-elect Porfirio Lobo on
January 27. Lagos also discussed plans to put together a working
group of center-left progressive regional leaders and predicted
that Chile's policies will change little even if opposition
candidate Sebastian Pinera wins the January 17 presidential run-off
election. End summary.



Honduras

--------------




2. (C) Former President Ricardo Lagos (1994 - 2000) discussed
Honduras with A/S Valenzuela in a January 11 meeting in Santiago.
(Note: Lagos co-chairs the Tegucigalpa-San Jose Accord
implementation committee together with U.S. Secretary of Labor
Hilda Solis. See Refs A and B. End note). Valenzuela was
accompanied by the Ambassador, Poloff, and Pol Specialist
(notetaker). Echoing his previous remarks to the Ambassador, Lagos
commented that he had called Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez
several weeks ago to insist that it would be completely
unacceptable for the de-facto president, Roberto Micheletti, to
hand over the presidential sash to President-elect Porfirio Lobo on
January 27. He urged the Cardinal to help persuade Micheletti to
step down. The Cardinal told Lagos that he could try to convince
Micheletti to hand-over the sash to the President of the Congress
during the day of the ceremony in private, so as to not appear at
the ceremony, an idea Lagos characterized as "absurd." He lamented
that the Cardinal had not played the role he could have at the
right moment. Lagos told A/S Valenzuela that he would be
"delighted to be of service, if you believe it could be helpful."




3. (C) Lagos agreed with A/S Valenzuela that a refusal by
Micheletti to step down prior to Lobo's inauguration represents a
starting handicap for Lobo. Lobo will need to find an exit
solution for deposed President Zelaya and generate legitimacy for
his new administration in the eyes of the international community.
A/S Valenzuela expressed that it might be helpful, after a period
of time, for the OAS to issue a report on mechanisms to improve
democratic governance.




4. (C) Regarding the implementation of a truth commission, as
stipulated in the San Jose Accord, Lagos confirmed that it has not
yet been announced. He said that the Implementation Commission
decided that announcing it in the context of current tensions would
throw more fuel on the fire. He explained that the commission had
discussed a timeframe for beginning its work in March.



Latin America is Not Just Chavez and Micheletti

-------------- --------------




5. (C) When turning to other concerns in the region, former
President Lagos lamented what he considers a common
over-simplification of Latin American political trends. While
acknowledging that many countries in the neighborhood face serious
problems -- he mentioned Venezuela and Argentina in particular --
Lagos posited that the prevalent view that Latin America countries
are either in the hands of the extreme left or the extreme right is
an unhelpful generalization. For example, Lagos suggested that the
election of Jose Mujica in Uruguay, despite his revolutionary past,
does not represent significant political change. Lagos also

SANTIAGO 00000017 002 OF 003


expressed his view that "Chavez's influence in the region is in
decline." He predicted that a loss for Chile's center-left
governing coalition in the January 17 presidential runoff may
generate speculation about a shift of political power to the right
in Latin America, which would also be an incomplete view of
regional politics. Similarly, potential victories of Jose Serra in
Brazil and Argentine opposition candidates would not reflect any
fundamental shift to the right.




6. (C) In order to "breakdown the idea that there are only
Chavezes and Michelettis in Latin America" Lagos discussed the
possibility of developing a progressive leaders' working group for
the region that would include U.S. members. Potential participants
could include Presidents Michelle Bachelet (Chile) and Tabare
Vazquez (Uruguay) after their terms end. Lagos mentioned that he
had already discussed the idea with former President Felipe
Gonzalez (Spain),who liked the idea. He insisted that it is
important to demonstrate that Latin America has a "center-left that
is modern, sensible, and lucid" and that efforts to do so would be
worth the time invested. The Ambassador expressed that the
Progressive Summit held in March 2009, attended by Vice-President
Biden, was a successful event along those lines.



Chilean-Peruvian Relations: Arms Issues and the Maritime Border
Dispute

-------------- --------------
--------------




7. (C) Lagos discussed Chile-Peru tensions, explaining that
Peruvians are concerned that Chile's relations with the U.S. "are
too close," adding that Peru is especially sensitive to the issue
of arms purchases. He explained that, under his mandate, Chile had
tried to develop an agreement with Peru and the United Nations for
making both countries' arms purchases transparent, along the lines
of Chile's agreement with Argentina where both countries inform the
UN of their arms procurement. Despite his efforts, they were never
able to establish such an agreement with Peru.




8. (C) Lagos also related how the Chile-Peru maritime border
dispute, currently in the International Court of Justice at the
Hague, began to heat up during his term in office (1994- 2000). He
explained that the center of the dispute really has to do with
Peruvian concerns that Bolivia will secure a marine access corridor
via an agreement with Chile, something was under discussion during
Lagos' time and is part of Chile's 13-point agenda with Bolivia
today.



Chile's Domestic Politics: Chile Won't Change Much If Conservative
Pinera Wins

-------------- --------------
--------------




9. (C) When asked by A/S Valenzuela if Chile would change if
opposition conservative candidate Sebastian Pinera wins the
upcoming presidential runoff on January 17, Lagos responded with a
very confident, "No, I don't think so." He predicted that, if
elected, Pinera will take a Sarkozy-like approach and try to create
an image of broad inclusiveness in his government, "which would be
good." He also predicted that Pinera will not change Chile's
social policies if elected, as there are resources to maintain them
and Chile will most likely be entering a new period of economic
growth. (Note: Chile's current social protection policies are
considered a hallmark of highly popular outgoing President Michelle
Bachelet. End note.) When comparing notes with A/S Valenzuela
about the voter registration drive in the late 1980s, prior to the

SANTIAGO 00000017 003 OF 003


end of Chile's dictatorship, Lagos described the country as being
"at a different stage now."




10. (U) The Assistant Secretary cleared this cable.
SIMONS