'KHAMENEI: NOW MORE THAN EVER' SAYS IRAN'S EXPERTS ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000051

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/25
TAGS: PGOV IR
SUBJECT: 'KHAMENEI: NOW MORE THAN EVER' SAYS IRAN'S EXPERTS ASSEMBLY

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Eyre, Director, DOS, IRPO; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The February 23-24 biannual meeting of the Assembly
of Experts ended without incident, and despite the pre-meeting
agitations of pro-Ahmadinejad elements, without any appreciable
diminution of the political standing of its head, former President
Hashemi Rafsanjani . The dominant theme of the two-day meeting was
support for the Supreme Leader, confirming that for the time being,
as a body the AoE remains pubically fully behind Khamenei. It also
indicates that while there is a significant and influential
anti-Rafsanjani/pro-Ahmadinejad minority within the AoE, it is
currently incapable of inflicting significant political damage on
AoE President Rafsanjani. END SUMMARY.




2. (C) On February 23-24 Iran's Assembly of Experts (AoE),charged
with electing, supervising and if necessary removing the Supreme
Leader, had its second biannual meeting since the tumultuous June
12 Presidential elections. This 86-member body, headed by composed
exclusively of popularly elected senior clerics, is head by former
President Hashemi Rafsanjani, and its two meetings since the
election have been studied as an indication of his political
standing. Noticeably absent in this meeting was Rafsanjani
arch-nemesis Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, whose stayed away but who
sent his son to take his seat.




3. (U) In the lead-up to this latest AoE meeting elements
associated with President Ahmadinejad's political faction increased
their anti-Rafsanjani public rhetoric. Pro-Ahmadinejad press and
politicians issued calls that per Khamenei guidance Rafsanjani must
'clarify his position,' 'i.e. express fealty to the Supreme Leader
and explicitly condemn the Green Movement and its leaders Khatami,
Mousavi and Karrubi. In this vein:



- the pro-Ahmadinejad 'Vatan-e Emruz' newspaper wrote of the
possibility of removing Rafsanjani as AoE head (despite the fact
that leadership elections were not scheduled);



- an unofficial group in Qom called 'Popular Staff for Discernment
Meetings' published statements in some Qom seminaries seeking
Rafsanjani's removal, implying it was Khamenei's wishes;



- a Kayhan Editorial by Hossein Shariatmadari on Feb 20 accused
Rafsanjani of cooperating with Hassan Ruhani and Mohsen Rezai in
seeking to reform the election law to weaken the Guardian Council,
in order to 'open the path of the influence of the enemy.'



- in recently released remarks, hardline conservative cleric
Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi said that "after Ashura (December 27
demonstrations) ... there were no doubts remaining" about
Rafsanjani's sympathies with the 'insurrectionists.'



RAF SPEECH: SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE




4. (U) Rafsanjani's opening AoE speech on February 23 was a
perfunctory tour d 'horizon, filled with the usual talking points
on regional and domestic issues, to include praising the popular
turnout on February 11, which "showed the wisdom of the Iranian
people." In the non-boilerplate part of his speech, picked up by
reformist media, he said, "during the interval between the two
meetings of the Assembly of Experts [September 2009-March 2010],
some distressing incidents happened in the country that were
unprecedented [i.e. demonstrations on November 4, December 7 and
December 27]. These incidents led to disputes and probably created
grudges... the families of both protesters and [security] forces
were hurt too, which is regrettable and requires investigation."

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5. (C) Much of both this speech and his subsequent February 24
speech at the grave of Grand Ayatollah Khomeini (another AoE
meeting ritual) was filled with references to the popular nature of
the Islamic Revolution, with Rafsanjani saying that it was the
Iranian people who brought about the Revolution and have sustained
it, a not-to-subtle warning about the dangers of losing popular
support. Rafsanjani in this latter speech also referred to his own
long Revolutionary credentials while disparaging ''those people who
didn't have anything to say during the time of struggle," (and who
now) are professing to be champions of the Revolution, an implicit
reference to a wide range of Rafsanjani's recent enemies, to
include Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi.




6. (C) Rafsanjani's AoE speeches were of course rife with the
requisite expressions of fealty to the Supreme Leader, with his
saying at one point that "I don't know anyone better than the
Leader to be the basis of unity." However in his comments he also
made a subtle distinction between the person and the position
itself, calling the latter 'the most important capital from the
Islamic Revolution.' He also implied that Khamenei should remove
himself from partisan battles, at one point praising Khamenei's
capabilities and familiarity with religious, scientific, economic,
management, and military matters, while adding "we must not allow
ourselves to abuse such an important resource for trivial matters."




7. (C) Perhaps in response for demands for clarification,
Rafsanjani spoke of the need to preserve the 'border between those
faithful to the Revolution and those foundation-breakers who have a
problem with the Constitution and the Supreme Leader." However,
this statement, and Rafsanjani's protestations of loyalty to the
Supreme Leader, were insufficient for his detractors within the
AoE, with some of the 16 speakers allotted 15 minutes for comments
voicing dissatisfaction with his stance. For example, Mazandaran
province representative Hojjatoleslam Moallemi complained that
considering his position Rafsanjani should have 'spoken more
clearly' and 'taken a position, ' while Golestan Province
Representative Hojjatoleslami Shahroudi requested that Rafsanjani
'prove for all' his devotion to the Supreme Leader by taking a
clear and transparent position.



NOW MORE THAN EVER




8. (C) As per custom, select government officials were summoned to
the AoE to brief on their portfolios. This time both Foreign
Minister Mottaki and IRGC Commander Jaafari gave reports, the
former on Iran's foreign affairs and the latter on domestic
security. The latter's reported comments were interesting insofar
as he included 'technocrats' [possibly a reference to Rafsanjani
and his supporters] along with "anti-revolutionaries and
revisionists" as being among those opposing the Revolution and the
Velayat-e Faqih (i.e. Supreme Leader Khamenei).




9. (C) The two-day AoE session also featured the reading of the
monthly report of its Article 111 Commission, which meets monthly
to monitor the performance of the Supreme Leader in light of his
Constitutional duties. The Committee's fawning findings were
perhaps best summarized in its gushing statement that 'as we
progress forward, the Leader's essential qualities shine brighter
and brighter, especially his wisdom and management.'



FINAL AoE STATEMENT: 'KHAMENEI-FEST'




10. (C) The AoE's final statement was likewise a paean to the
Supreme Leader and an exhortation to all to continue to follow his
guidance. It said (inter alia):

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- It is essential to bring about quiet and unity by following the
guidance of the Supreme Leader



- the post-election events, although inflicting significant
material and spiritual damage, was also a blessing as it helped
identify impurities and to separate the forces of good and evil,
and to test Iran's people and elites. The results of this historic
trial showed the people's wisdom and also unfortunately also the
forlorn nature of some elites.



- The 'Revolutionary patience' of the people ended on December 30
[the day of the pro-government demonstration]. But even though "the
insurrection is over," the people's responsibilities, and the need
to make one's positions clear and to follow the Supreme Leader, has
not ended. Reflection on what had transpired would convince any
reasonable person of the need for full support the position of the
Supreme Leader.



- Iran's intelligence and security forces would continue to deal
'decisively' with any type of suspicious or incendiary acts.




11. (C) COMMENT: Popular participation in AoE elections is minimal
by Iranian standards, and the Guardian Council has been especially
virulent in its ideological screening for candidates for this body.
This, plus the natural conservative nature of Iran's clerical
class, means that the AoE as a whole is the most inertial of
Iranian institutions. This AoE meeting confirms that, despite
Rafsanjani's leadership, as a body the AoE remains publically fully
behind the Supreme Leader. It also indicates that while there is a
significant and influential anti-Rafsanjani/pro-Ahmadinejad
minority within the AoE, it is currently incapable of inflicting
significant political damage on AoE President Rafsanjani. END
COMMENT.
EYRE