ITALY-YEMEN: SENIOR MFA OFFICIALS OUTLINE APPROACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ROME 000089

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KISL IT YE
SUBJECT: ITALY-YEMEN: SENIOR MFA OFFICIALS OUTLINE APPROACH
ON FRIENDS OF YEMEN, EU FAC ISSUES

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Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Barbara A. Leaf for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) FM Frattini's Chief of Staff Alain Economides and
Acting Director General of the MFA Middle East Bureau Luigi
Marras told us the international community needed to take an
inclusive and regional approach to stabilizing Yemen in the
aftermath of the attempted bombing of NWA Flight 253. Marras
stressed that Yemeni ownership of the effort and tailoring
the approach to local sensitivities was critical to success.
Commenting on the Department's Yemen demarche points for the
upcoming EU Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) ministerial, Marras
said the GOI fully shared U.S. concerns and that an inclusive
"Friends of Yemen" (FOY) format would be most effective.
Economides provided the PolMin Counselor an advance copy of
the GOI position paper on Yemen that FM Frattini will present
in London detailing the GOI's concept of the FOY initiative
(text below). End summary.


GOI APPROACH TO FOY
--------------


2. (C) On January 20, Poloffs conveyed the Yemen demarche
points for the January 25 EU FAC ministerial to Acting
Director General of the MFA's Middle East Bureau Luigi
Marras. In response, Marras said that Yemen has been a top
GOI concern for the past two years and that Italy shares the
USG analysis of the security problem Yemen represents.
Marras emphasized Yemen's links with Somalia and other East
African countries and that the FOY initiative must address
social and economic development in that region too, in order
to preempt al-Qaida's recruiting attempts. Italy has also
pushed for a more pro-active EU commitment toward combating
terrorism and addressing the sources of instability in Yemen,
he noted.


3. (C) Marras said that to be effective the FOY should
ensure Yemeni "ownership" of the initiative and FOY countries
should not be perceived as too intrusive. Specifically, the
ROYG should not be pressured to accept reforms that could
play into the hands of "negative forces" and further weaken
the central government. While democracy is one instrument to
achieve "stability and happiness" in Yemen, Marras said our
(western) notion of democratic reform cannot be imposed on
Yemeni society in a short period of time. Acknowledging that
he did not yet know the organizational details of the January
27 London FOY meeting, Marras said the Arab League should
have been invited as well as all countries and organizations
presently working in Yemen.


4. (C) Marras quoted A/S Gordon that Yemen should not be
perceived as "an Anglo-Saxon concern," a perspective Italy
shares. Commenting that London has been "very secretive"
about its organizing of the FOY, Marras offered his view the
FCO must have been caught by surprise at having to host the
meeting at such short notice. As for Italian assistance,
Marras said the GOI is currently helping Yemen fight high
seas piracy and to regain partial control of its coast by
providing training, radars and refitted Italian patrol boats
to the Yemeni coast guard. Italy plans to increase
assistance to Yemen which, according to Marras, would help in
monitoring arms smuggling to Gaza.

GREATER ENGAGEMENT -- ESPECIALLY U.S. -- ON SOMALIA NEEDED
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In a separate meeting with PolMin Counselor, FM
Frattini CoS Economides underlined the sense of urgency
Frattini has about Somalia following his Africa swing last
week. (Note: Frattini announced from Kenya GOI plans to
fund the Somali MFA, Ministry of National Security and other
GOS entities. End note.) Economides said that every head of
state and foreign minister Frattini met during the trip urged
the Italians to elicit greater USG engagement on Somalia.
Economides said the GOI viewed Somalia and Yemen as two sides
of the same (bad) coin, in terms of spawing trans-national
security threats, thus it was critical that we collectively
addressed problems in both countries in a coordinated,
cohesive fashion. He mused that while hitherto Somalia's
neighbors had taken a stance of hoping to keep the problems

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there contained within, it was now clear that this was a
non-starter. "We have no choice" but to engage directly and
assertively in Somalia, thus the GOI commitment to fund
ministries and police and coast guard training. As an
indication of how some neighbors still longed for old
solutions, Economides said Kenyan officials told Frattini
they aimed to build a kind of "cordon sanitaire" 60
kilometres deep along the Kenyan-Somali border, an idea he
dismissed as pointless in terms of addressing the security
threats emanating from Somalia.

Following is the text of the GOI position paper on Yemen:


ITALIAN POSITION PAPER ON YEMEN
--------------

(C) Begin Text: Under embargo until after the intervention
of FM Frattini at the January 27 London FOY meeting.

January 18, 2010.

(C) Analysis: Yemen has long been facing serious
destabilizing factors, which find fertile ground in the
socio-economic difficulties affecting the country, such as
poverty, shortages in resources, rise of extremism, flux of
refugees, illegal immigration and trafficking. The main
reasons for concern are currently represented by the
terrorist groups in the northeast of Yemen (allegedly
benefiting from Iranian support),the separatist movements in
southeast , and the complex tribal system of the country, as
well as the proximity to Somalia. These elements altogether
create an environment where al-Qaida and other terrorist
organizations have shown to be able to increase their
destabilizing activities.

(C) Strategy: The national Yemeni ownership of the process,
as well as the regional ownership of the process (all of the
Gulf Cooperation Council countries should be included),are
of the utmost importance (also at the media level). The
sovereignty of Yemen should be fully respected, and all the
national and regional instruments put to work. For these
reasons, the Arab League should be invited. The perception
of an intrusive foreign presence shoud be avoided in order to
foster support from all the components of the country. It is
necessary to effectively support the process of
re-stabilization of Yemen through a coordinated effort of the
international community.

(C) Steps to be taken: Yemen, together with the GCC
countries, should work out a strategy for restabilization
which could be shared by a group of countries and
organizations (that are) "Friends of Yemen." At the 27
January London meeting the main lines of the strategy could
be discussed and a working plan agreed upon.

(C) The plan could include the following main areas of
intervention:

a) Social and economic measures;
b) Institution building;
c) Security;
d) Coastal monitoring and patrolling;
e) Smuggling and trafficking.

To each of these areas of intervention could correspond a
Working Group under the lead of Yemen with the assistance of
a country or of an international organization. Italy could
could consider assisting Yemen in one of the Groups. The
coastal monitoring and patrolling Group could be a
possibility. (Italy participates both in Ocean Shield and
Atalanta operations, is implementing VTMS system in Yemen, is
engaged significantly in Somalia, and is ready to host in
Rome one of the next meetings of the Gaza Counter Arms
Smuggling Initiative.)

(C) In order to be consistent with the strategy of national
ownership, the coordination of such Working Groups should be
loose and informal, although effective. In the weeks
following the London conference, Friends of Yemen could meet
in the region to start its activities. Alternatively, Rome
could be a possible venue. End text.



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Following is the text of the paper on Frattini's discussions
on Somalia with Kenyan, Ethiopian and Somali leaders,
provided by Economides:

Updated Italian position on Somalia

Begin text:

Somalia is a priority in Italy's foreign policy. In this
light, the Somali crisis was the main topic of discussion
during meetings of Foreign Minister Franco Frattini with
Somali, Kenyan and Ethiopian Authorities, held during his
recent visit to these countries. In line with the "Italian
Position Paper on Somalia", presented to the extraordinary
ICG meeting held in New York on the 23rd of September 2009,
Italy has the pleasure of forwarding the following updated
position, which considers views expressed by the leaders of
the three mentioned countries, which Italy fully endorses.

Discussions with Ethiopia and Kenya

Somalia was major topic of discussion in the meetings the
Italian Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini, held in Ethiopia
with Prime Minister Meles and Foreign Minister Seyoum (13
January) as well as in Kenya with President Kibaki, Prime
Minister Odinga and Foreign Minister Wetangula (14 January).

Ethiopia and Kenya had very similar messages: The crisis in
Somalia has a dangerous spill-over effect throughout the
wider region, as well as for Europe. It represents a clear
and present threat to international security, due mainly to
terrorism as well as piracy. In the region there is a
widespread feeling - backed up by anecdotal evidence - that
the upper layers of Shabaab leadership are predominantly
constituted by foreign fighters, with strong ties to Al Qaeda.

According to both leaders, the Somali Transitional Federal
Institutions must be urgently and effectively assisted, as
their failure would be a disaster firstly for the region, but
also for the International Community. If Shabaab take
control over Mogadishu, the effects will be dramatic in the
neighboring countries (Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia) but also at
the international level through a surge of fundamental
Islamic terrorism (seveal Somalis - some of them with double
passports - have already been protagonists of terrorists
acts). This view is also shared by the Special
Representative of the UNSG, Ambassador Ould Abdallah.

The African Union peacekeeping mission needs to be futher
strengthened, to allow it to become a more effective
instrument of defence of the TFG and its Institutions.

According to the leaders of both countries, the crisis should
be tackled by the International Community with more
effectiveness and coordination. Among other considerations,
the humanitarian situation in Somalia and the plague of
Somali refugees abroad call for a strong international
response (reactivating the World Food Programme activities in
Somalia was specifically mentioned).

As concerns the internal situation the leaders of both
countries, while stressing their full support to the TFG,
pointed out some inconsistencies in its action which need to
be addressed and overcome: the incapacity to create better
living conditions for their people (security, health,
education, jobs) at least in the Shabaab-free areas; requests
not in line with clear priorities presented by the TFIs to
donors (e.g.: rehabilitation of the Ministry of Tourism in
Mogadishu).

Particularly serious is the inability of the TFG to pay
regularly their Security Forces (due also to the insufficient
and inadequate assistance by the International Community)
while the Shabaab seem much better at acquiring the necessary
financial resources to ensure regular payment of their
forces. The International Community has a crucial role to
play in this respect, as financial assistance is badly needed
to cover these vital expenses.

Both countries acknowledged the key role Italy can play in
the Somali crisis and in the region, and encouraged Rome to
continue to pursue its action, also as a stimulus to the rest
of the International Community.


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Positon of Somalia

Foreign Minister Frattini met with President Sheikh Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed in Nairobi. The President was accompanied by
Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister
of Finance and by Foreign Minister Jengheli. The President
confirmed that the first and foremost priority of Somalia is
security. In addition, the Somali President stressed that
the Transitional Federal Institutions need targeted foreign
support to work more efficiently.

The first budget ever since 1991, just released for 2010, is
an important step to such an effect. The amount involved is
110 million dollars, well within the reach of the
International Community. The Government will continue its
policy of national reconciliation and outreach towards Somali
civil society. Economic reconstruction must start in safe
areas, controlled by Government forces. The International
Community must respect the pledges made at the April 2009
Brussels' Conference as well as re-activiate its presence in
Somalia (The President explicitly mentioned the need for a UN
presence on the ground).

The President also dwelt upon the linkages between Somalia
and Yemen in the fight against terrorism. Focusing on
security, the President insisted strongly on the need to
ensure regular and adequate payment for his Security Forces,
in order to prevent defections and strengthen the TFG.
President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed also stressed that urgent
priorities in this field are military equipment, logistics
and transport, medical supplies and healthcare.

The President asked Italy to host a pledging Conference for
the Reconstruction of Somalia.

Italy's Engagement

In 2009 Italy disbursed 13 million Euros in favour of
security in Somalia as well as for capacity-building in
favour of its institutions, namely 5 million euros to AMISOM
and almost 8 million euros to Somalia Security Forces
(managed together with the AU through the Italian Africa
Peace Facility) and to key Somali Ministries (Foreign Afairs,
National Security, Finance, Interior, through a program
managed by UNOPS). Moreover, 6 million euros were disbursed
by Italian Aid, providing humanitarian assistance to the
Somali population (mostly through International Agencies, as
Italy presently doesn't send expatriates on the ground).

Italy will pursue its engagement through projects aimed a
training Somali 'robust' Police Forces, border and custom
police officers (the first such course took place in Italy
recently),and possibly through a pilot project to train
Coast Guard officers.

Targeted support to the Ministry of Information, specifically
for Radio Mogadishu, is also foreseen, with a main purpose of
reinforcing Somali Government capabilities to reach out to
civil society and public opinion. Until now, information and
propaganda has been monopolised by Shabaab.

Italy confirms the intention of re-opening its Embassy in
Mogadishu as well as to deepen its recognition of the Somali
Government by formally accepting the new Somali passports.

Political priorities

Italy will further its comprehensive approach towards
Somalia, also by envisaging targeted advocacy actions in
order to make sure that partners in the International
Community live up to their promises regarding supporting
concretely the Transitional Federal Institutions' and Somali
Security Foreces (e.g. disbursing pledges at the Brussels'
Conferences). Similar efforts may be required in
strengthening AMISOM as a pre-condition to allow the TFIs to
establish a more secure environment, starting with the
capital Mogadishu.

The initiative of re-opening the Embassy of Italy in
Mogadishu should be matched by parallel steps by the most
important international organizations, such as the UN, the EU
and the AU, in order to materialize on the ground the resolve
of the International Community in supporting the TFIs. Italy
will continue to cooperate with countries within the region,

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also in its capacity as Chair of the IGAD Partners' Forum
(IPF). IGAD itself has decided to send a Ministerial Troika
-- Kenya, Djibouti and the IGAD Secretariat -- to some
countries.

On the EU front, Italy deems it necessary to appoint a EU
Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, to better focus and
streamline the Union's activity in the region, with a
particular focus on Somalia.






THORNE