SOUTH AFRICA DIVIDED INTERNALLY ON IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000383

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR P, NEA/IR, DRL/NESCA, AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KNUC PARM NPT SA
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA DIVIDED INTERNALLY ON IRAN

REF: A. SECSTATE 12108

B. PRETORIA 00325

Classified By: Ambassador Donald H. Gips for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In conversations and meetings in Cape Town on
the margins of the opening of Parliament, the Ambassador
heard repeatedly that the SAG is conflicted on how to deal
with Iran with respect to human rights and nuclear
non-proliferation. While they are mindful of South Africa's
dependence on the Islamic Republic for oil and of other
commercial interests, South African decision-makers are
concerned about the Government of Iran's (GOI) severe human
rights violations. Deputy Minister in the Department of
International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) Ebrahim
Ismail Ebrahim put it plainly, "We haven't sorted this out
yet." End summary.

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CONFLICTING PRIORITIES
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2. (C) In a conversation with the Ambassador, Ebrahim
acknowledged that South Africa is very divided internally
about Iran. When the Ambassador pushed for clarity on the
nature of the division, Ebrahim did not elaborate and said
simply, "We haven't sorted this out yet."


3. (C) During a separate meeting, Speaker of the National
Assembly Max Sisulu asserted that his visit to Iran was
simply a Parliamentary visit. He dodged the Ambassador's
questions about the GOI's human rights violations. On the
nuclear issue, Sisulu said that South Africa told the GOI it
would support its peaceful nuclear ambitions. When the
Ambassador expressed the USG's incredulity that the GOI's
pursuit of nuclear capability is for peaceful purposes,
Sisulu avoided further discussion of the issue. He did point
out that cellular network operator MTN and the South African
Coal, Oil and Gas Corporation (Sasol) are huge players in the
Iranian marketplace.


4. (C) Former Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool, who was
part of the delegation that traveled to Tehran in early
February, shared more details during a hallway conversation.
Rasool confirmed that the GOI was furious with South Africa
for the SAG's abstention on the Iran vote in the Third
Committee session of UNGA, and for not at least alerting the
GOI that the RSA was changing its vote. He also insisted that
the USG's pressure is backfiring because President
Ahmadinejad simply uses it to unite his citizens against the
West, adding that international pressure does not matter
since the government is effectively crushing the internal
opposition. Rasool claims that the Chairman of the Iranian
Parliament, Ali Larijani, would have been president except
that he comes from the wrong tribe. He feels that Larijani
and two of his brothers are the best hope for a more stable
Iran. While in Tehran, Rasool tried to arrange meetings with
the opposition, but claims he could not secure any because
everyone is too afraid to talk.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) During the Mbeki Presidency, SAG officials tended to
emphasize both South Africa's economic relations with Iran
and a view of the Islamic Republic which portrayed it as part
of the anti-Western forces with which Mbeki sought to
identify his foreign policy. While President Zuma has begun
to distance his administration from this latter tendency, the
SAG still appears to bend over backwards to portray Iranian
actions in a favorable light. That, and the continuing
importance of South African-Iranian trade relations continue
to be weighed in the balance against Iran's appalling human
Qto be weighed in the balance against Iran's appalling human
rights record. Given these competing pressures, the SAG is,
at least for now, unlikely to denounce Iranian human rights
violations publicly, or challenge Iran on non-proliferation
issues. We, nonetheless, intend to continue pushing SAG
officials on these issues. End comment.
GIPS