TRINDIDAD'S OPPOSITION PARTY CHANGES GUARD

UNCLAS PORT OF SPAIN 000062

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TD
SUBJECT: TRINDIDAD'S OPPOSITION PARTY CHANGES GUARD


1. (SBU) Summary: Trinidad and Tobago's (TT) leading opposition
party dramatically changed leadership January 24 when United
National Congress (UNC) members overwhelmingly elected Kamla
Persad-Bissessar as political leader, making her the first woman to
head a major political party in the country's history. The
election marked a significant blow to UNC founder and former Prime
Minister Basdeo Panday, whose ongoing legal battles may have
contributed to his stunning loss by a 10-to-1 margin. Panday
supporters are crying foul over claimed irregularities in the
internal party elections as speculation turns to whether
Persad-Bissessar -- now reaching out to the smaller COP party to
widen her base -- will gather enough support among opposition
parliamentarians to give the country's president cause to replace
Panday as parliamentary opposition leader. Some observers also
speculate that Prime Minister Manning's ruling PNM party will call
snap elections this year, but our sources (and we agree) judge this
unlikely. Manning will, however, shortly undertake a minor cabinet
reshuffling. End Summary.



CHANGING OF THE OPPOSITION GUARD

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2. (U) After a rigorous and very public campaign to win the hearts
and minds of the party faithful, parliamentarian Kamla
Persad-Bissessar won the United National Congress party elections
January 24 to take the helm as political leader, and businessman
and longtime politico Jack Warner was elected party chair.
Persad-Bissessar's election makes her the first woman to lead a
major political party in Trinidad and Tobago.



BUT WILL THE OLD GUARD STEP ASIDE?

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3. (U) UNC founder and sitting parliamentary Opposition Leader
Basdeo Panday lost by a landslide 10-to-1 margin, but his
supporters are challenging the results claiming that thousands of
ballots went uncounted. Panday himself said he would leave it to
others to mount a legal challenge to the election results, but it
is widely reported that he has no intention of stepping down
quietly as opposition leader in the parliament, a position that is
appointed by the president upon a request of a majority of
opposition MPs.




4. (SBU) It was Panday's refusal to step aside as opposition
leader under somewhat similar circumstances in 2006 that led
Winston Dookeran to split from the UNC to form a new political
party, the Congress of the People (COP). Persad-Bissessar is said
to be reaching out to the COP to form a coalition that could
effectively reunite UNC-COP members and strengthen the opposition.
A well-placed COP leader told us that he and others favor unity,
but that Dookeran might be an obstacle. Several opposition leaders
and members of parliament we spoke with said the new UNC political
leader should be able to garner the eight votes she needs among
opposition party members of parliament in order to call for the
appointment of a new opposition leader by the president in the
coming days, though Panday is furiously working against this.



MANNING'S REACTIONS

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5. (SBU) Meanwhile, commentators have speculated that Prime
Minister Patrick Manning's ruling People's National Movement (PNM)
party will call a snap elections later this year, although party
sources told us such a move would be unlikely (we agree). Local
elections, though, which have been delayed for nearly four years,
might take place in May in a bid to hold them before the opposition
has time to fully reorganize. In addition, Manning is said to be
planning a minor cabinet shuffle this week to better position
stronger MPs in his government; a cabinet member told us last
October that the PM would do so in January because it roughly marks

the mid-point of Manning's five-year term.




6. (SBU) COMMENT: The UNC leadership change is widely regarded
as a sea change for the party founded by Panday in 1989, and also
as a repudiation of what some have characterized as a cantankerous
leadership style and the ongoing criminal case involving a London
bank account he allegedly failed to declare to the public integrity
commission. It also reflects the view among many -- including
those who respect Panday and consider him a figure of historic
importance -- that the only way to challenge the PNM is for
opposition forces to unite, something widely viewed as impossible
as long as Panday remained in charge of the UNC. UNC and COP
officials tell us they are confident that Persad-Bissessar's
charisma and Warner's business sense (and deep pockets) will
revitalize those opposed to the PNM, especially if Panday can be
moved aside as official opposition leader in the parliament.
Persad-Bissessar has made clear she has already set her sights on
Manning and the PNM for the parliamentary elections that must be
held by late 2012.
Kusnitz