Validation Study: Bahamian F1 visa holders

UNCLAS NASSAU 000110

SIPDIS
STATE FOR CA/FPP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS KFRD BF
SUBJECT: Validation Study: Bahamian F1 visa holders


1. SUMMARY: Due to limited choices in post-secondary
educational institutions in the Bahamas, each year many Bahamians
choose to study in the United States. In November and December,
2009, Post completed a validation study examining overstay rates
for Bahamian nationals studying on F-1 visas. The sample of 680
students was pulled from applicants between April 1, 2002 and March
31, 2003. The results indicate that while more than 90% of visa
holders from the survey were found to be in legal status, many
adjusted to a status other than student after arriving in the
United States.


2. METHODOLOGY: Post conducted a study of 680 F-1 Bahamian
visa recipients. Due to the duration of F-1 visas, the sample had
to be pulled from April 1, 2002-March 31, 2003. Because the
applications available were at least six years old, many phone
numbers were either not available or inaccurate. The majority of
the data collection was conducted through ADIS and SEVIS queries
with phone calls playing a minor roll. The validation study covered
a 365-day period from April 1, 2002 until March 31, 2003. This data
range was chosen to allow for students to complete college with any
addition OPT/internships that may follow. Using CA/FPP guideline, a
random sample was used to select 680 F-1 visa holders.


3. DATA COLLECTION: Due to the unreliability of phone
numbers, Post found that it was impossible in most cases to contact
visa holders by phone. The initial data collection was done with a
batch ADIS and SEVIS search performed by FPP. The results of this
search were integrated into the main spreadsheet and were cross
checked by doing individual ADIS searches. Applicants were then
placed into the categories listed below.


4. THE FOUR STATUS CATEGORIES:

a. Confirmed Return: Of the 680 issuances, 450 are confirmed
returns.

b. In Legal Status other than F1: Of the 680 issuances, 97
were found to be in legal status in the United States, most
commonly as LPRs or with H1Bs.

c. Active Student: Of the 680 issuances, 42 are still
actively students per SEVIS.

d. Inconclusive/Possible overstay: Of the 680 issuances, 73
are inconclusive as to their current status. Because phone numbers
were not available, Post was unable to confirm that these 73
issuants were overstays although it is likely many of them are.


5. RESULTS: Although Post was unable to confirm any
overstays, 10.7% of F-1 holders are inconclusive/possible
overstays.

Category

Total Number

Percentage

Confirmed Return

466

68.50%

In Legal Status

98

14.40%

Active SEVIS Status

43

6.30%

Inconclusive/Possible overstay

73

10.70%


6. Post further analyzed the results based on gender. The
following tables show a break-down of each of the categories based
on gender. It can be noted that there isn't a significant
difference between men and women.

Women

Category

Total Number

Percentage

Confirmed Return

269

69.10%

In Legal Status

56

14.40%

Active SEVIS Status

27

6.90%

Inconclusive/Possible overstay

37

9.50%


Men


Category

Total Number

Percentage

Confirmed Return

197

67.70%

In Legal Status

42

14.40%

Active SEVIS Status

16

5.50%

Inconclusive/Possible overstay

36

12.40%




7. Although 93% of F-1 issuants are between the ages of 20
and 39, there are issuants from 14 to 59 years old. The following
tables show a more in-depth look at the trends based on age. A few
trends can be noted: older students are more likely to finish their
studies and return home, the 30-39 year age group had the highest
rate of adjusting status after finishing schooling, and the 20-29
year age group has the longest duration of status.

Age

Confirmed Return

In Legal Status

Active SEVIS

Inconclusive/Possible overstay

0-19

50%

0%

0%

50%

20-29

69.80%

10.70%

7.90%

11.60%

30-39

64.40%

24.90%

3.40%

7.30%

40-49

72.70%

12.10%

3.00%

12.10%

50-59

75.00%

8.30%

0.00%

16.70%


8. Of the 98 in a current legal status other than their
original F1 status, about two-thirds of these were in an immigrant
status with the remaining one-third in a non-immigrant status,
primarily on H1B work visas. Comparing the date the original F1
visa was printed to the final completion or termination date of
their SEVIS status, it appears that most changed their status only
after four to five years in the U.S. This lengthy period of active
SEVIS status indicates that while many F1 visa holders did change
to another status, it does not appear that was the primary,
immediate purpose for traveling to the U.S.


9. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 90% of F1 visa holders were found to
be a current legal status with the remaining 10% being inconclusive
due to old telephone information. Although it seems more than 90%
of F1 issuances are in a legal status, a significant percentage
adjusted to another upon arriving in the United States, often
through work or family relationships. While it is understandable
that applicants' lives will change over lengthy educational
careers, particularly for those in the 20-39 age range,
adjudicating officers should continue to assess the intent of
student visa applicants in order to minimize potential fraud.
AVANT