BAVARIA/GERMAN POLITICS: CSU STRUGGLES TO REGAIN ITS

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SUBJECT: BAVARIA/GERMAN POLITICS: CSU STRUGGLES TO REGAIN ITS
FOOTING

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) A sobering opinion poll has given the Bavarian Christian
Social Union (CSU) only 41 percent, a clear sign that the party's
crisis continues, although at 41 percent the CSU was still twice as
popular as any other party in Bavaria. Minister President Seehofer
remains optimistic about the CSU's future. Predictions that the
wounded CSU lion would turn on itself in recent party caucuses
proved wrong. Fortunately, the CSU has no major elections before
2013, which gives CSU leaders a unique opportunity to regain their
credibility and rebuild confidence. Many party faithful still place
their hopes for the future on Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg, whose star power continues despite serious challenges
related to Afghanistan. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Bavarian Minister President and CSU chairman Horst
Seehofer told CG Tribble at Seehofer's January 15 New Year's
reception that despite negative polls, which currently see the CSU
at 41 percent, he remained optimistic. While the past year had been
extremely difficult, especially due to the ongoing BayernLB bank
disaster, the CSU was still in far better shape than any other
Bavarian political party, none of which comes even close to 20
percent. After the Kreuth meetings of the Bundestag and then
Landtag CSU caucuses, there were no major personnel changes, as had
been rumored, and the party remained focused on strengthening its
position in Bavaria. Seehofer was afraid, however, that the
time-delayed effects of the economic crisis would strike Bavarians
in 2010 and he emphasized that international cooperation to restore
economic growth was a prerequisite for success.


3. (SBU) There were no real fireworks considering what was on the
agendas at the two traditional New Year CSU Caucus meetings at Bad
Kreuth. The 45 CSU Bundestag members met from January 6-8. Feeling
like their backs are against the wall and looking for scapegoats,
CSU politicians seem more inclined than ever not to fight their
political opponents but rather attack their own coalition partners,
mainly the FDP. The CSU was angry about the refusal of FM
Westerwelle to support Erika Steinbach, a CDU Bundestag member and
President of the Federation of Expellees (Germans expelled from
Poland after WWII),in her bid to get a seat on the board of the
Museum of the Foundation on Expulsion. Then, after Westerwelle
promised Turkey that EU accession negotiations would proceed as
planned, CSU Secretary General Dobrindt attacked Westerwelle's
"secret diplomacy with countries such as Turkey and Poland" in no
uncertain terms. Complaints about Chancellor Merkel's (CDU) alleged
leadership deficiencies rounded out the agenda. The most noteworthy
event was the CSU's backing away from its previous call for speedy
tax relief measures, now deemed "unrealistic."


4. (SBU) The ten-billion Euro BayernLB disaster and the emerging
four-billion Euro Hypo Alpe Adria scandal overshadowed the agenda of
the 92 CSU Landtag deputies, who followed the federal politicians in
Kreuth January 12-14. Media was wrong to have predicted that
Environment Minister Markus Soeder would have enough support to lead
a successful putsch against Landtag caucus leader Georg Schmid, tied
to the BayernLB bank scandal; he did not. In the end, the Landtag
members left Kreuth in ostentatious good harmony. Their
self-confidence was comfortably boosted by the surprising fact that
despite the overall disheartening poll result, the same poll
revealed that a majority of 51 percent of the people continued to
believe that the CSU was best able to mind Bavarian interests and an
even more comfortable 64 percent believed that the CSU remained the
party with the greatest competence in economic matters.


5. (SBU) The positive aspects of the poll result were even more
surprising in view of the fact that media had run a series of
scathing reports concluding that Bavarian voters both in the city
and in the countryside had lost faith in the home team after decades
when the CSU was seen as the only party that could identify Bavarian
interests and supposedly take care of them. With the BayernLB
disaster compounding problems, the financial crisis has hit Bavaria
even harder than other German states, and many former CSU leaders,
such as Edmund Stoiber and Erwin Huber, have lost much of their
reputation as visionary and progressive politicians because of the
bank.

COMMENT
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6. (SBU) With no Landtag election until 2013, there is plenty of
time for the party to engineer a rise from the ashes. Rank and file
CSUers need to overcome party despondency and rebuild public
confidence. In private, strategists from the CSU headquarters admit
that party solidarity is fading, compounded by an ebbing trend of
the once-large "people's" parties. Smaller parties like the FDP,
and in Bavaria the Freie Waehler (Independents),are waxing

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stronger. The CSU lost more votes in the 2009 Bundestag elections
than the CDU in other parts of Germany, and it is by far the
smallest of the three coalition partners in Berlin. MP Seehofer
continues to create some of his own problems, too, with rash changes
of heart, populist statements, and attacks on the coalition partner
that created dissention within the party. Longer term, many of the
CSU rank-and-file believe that Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg has the best potential to become their future leader if
he wants it. For example, at a public meeting on January 18 at the
Bavarian office in Berlin, Bavarian Minister of State Emilia Mueller
warmly praised him and singled him out among politicians because he
"calls things by their true names." We agree that his signature
plain speaking, combined with his stage presence and intellect, seem
to predestine him for CSU leadership if he wants it and possibly
even greater prizes for himself on the national stage.


8. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with
Embassy Berlin

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