Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10MOSCOW144
2010-01-22 08:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Moscow
Cable title:  

U/S BURNS' MOSCOW MEETINGS

Tags:  PREL PGOV RS 
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P 220840Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5996
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 000144 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' MOSCOW MEETINGS

Classified By: DCM Eric S. Rubin for reasons 1.4(b, d)

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 000144

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' MOSCOW MEETINGS

Classified By: DCM Eric S. Rubin for reasons 1.4(b, d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In meetings with DFM Ryabkov, Presidential Advisor
Prikhodko and Putin advisor Ushakov January 13-14, U/S Burns
reiterated the U.S. desire to conclude the START follow-on
treaty quickly and pursue an aggressive arms control program
in 2010 including the NPT revcon and the Nuclear Security
Summit. GOR officials voiced support for the U.S. agenda,
but cautioned that the Russian military remains resistant, so
the treaty must clearly reflect mutual interests. Medvedev
will visit Canada for the Olympics and the G8/G20 and could
schedule a Washington visit around the latter; Putin is also
interested in visiting the U.S. Ryabkov indicated Russia's
willingness to move to the pressure track, notwithstanding
Moscow's conviction that sanctions will not change Iran's
behavior. Ushakov chronicled Russia's souring relations with
Iran and voiced no hope that the dynamics inside Iran will
allow for more flexibility on the nuclear issue anytime soon.
FM Lavrov will participate in the London conference on
Afghanistan and Russia is seeking opportunities to raise its
profile in the MEPP including by welcoming Abbas and
Netanyahu in the coming weeks and offering to host a Quartet
ministerial in the near future. On the Caucasus, Ryabkov
repeated accusations that Georgia is rearming and threatening
Russian forces in the region while the prospects for progress
on Nagorno-Karabakh have improved slightly in the last year.
Both sides expressed satisfaction with early results of the
Bilateral Presidential Commission, but agreed delivering
visible results will be critical in the coming months. End
summary.

ARMS CONTROL/PRESIDENTIAL MEETINGS
--------------


2. (C) U/S Burns and DFM Ryabkov reaffirmed the high-level
political will on both sides to conclude the START follow-on
treaty as soon as possible, though Ryabkov suggested they
avoid committing publicly to a deadline since three target
dates have already been missed. U/S Burns previewed the
upcoming visits by CJCS Mullen and NSA Jones as indications
of the USG's interest in hammering out remaining differences
quickly and expressed confidence that the treaty could be
completed by the end of February.



3. (C) U/S Burns also voiced satisfaction with U.S.-Russian
preparatory work on other elements of the arms-control
agenda, including the upcoming Nuclear Security Summit and
the NPT Review conference. He said the U.S. shares the
Canadian goal of extending and expanding the Global
Partnership. Ryabkov pledged continued close coordination
with the U.S. on these issues and, on the NPT Revcon, said
Russia wants a new P5 statement, but urged the U.S. to
continue a bilateral dialogue with Cairo to overcome
Egyptian opposition. He added that, although he is not a
proponent of artificial linkages, he believes progress on the
MEPP would positively influence Egypt's attitude on the NPT.


4. (C) Ryabkov said the GOR was pleased with the December
discussions on a Joint Threat Assessment on Missile Defense
in Washington. He predicted both sides could conclude a joint
paper by the end of the year and promised a Russian response
to the U.S. draft soon. He added that both formal and
informal contacts (as took place during the Washington visit)
augment the level of trust and are important to reach this
goal. Ryabkov stressed that Russia's position remains based
on then-president Putin's 2007 proposals and that the GOR
continues to support the Phased Adaptive Approach. Burns
suggested, and Ryabkov concurred, also restarting MD
discussions in the NATO-Russia Council.


5. (C) National Security Advisor Prikhodko told U/S Burns
that convincing the Russian military to support our ambitious
mutual non-proliferation objectives remains a challenge. He
noted that Russia understands that the Administration has to
be able to sell a new treaty to Congress to obtain
ratification, but added that "you need to remember we have
domestic politics here too." Prikhodko said Russia will
participate enthusiastically in the Nuclear Security Summit.
He noted that President Medvedev will be crossing the
Atlantic frequently in the first half of this year, first to
the Olympic closing ceremonies next month in Vancouver, then
to the Washington summit, and then again to the G8/G20
meetings in Canada. He indicated that Medvedev would be

MOSCOW 00000144 002 OF 004


prepared to consider a working visit to Washington in
connection with the latter, if the timing were mutually
agreeable.


6. (C) Deputy Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister, Yuriy
Ushakov, told U/S Burns that a June-July summit before or
after the G8/G20 meetings was worth exploring. On START, he
said the Russian side would need some time after the
Jones/Mullen visit to prepare for formal negotiations in
Geneva. He emphasized that "there are opponents of this
treaty here in this capital" and said it was important for
both sides to be able to convince their domestic
constituencies that the treaty was in both countries'
national interests.


7. (C) Ushakov also said that Putin continues to look for a
good "hook" to justify a visit to the U.S., and would be very
interested in any suggestions the USG might have. He noted
that Putin could not visit the U.S. too close to any
Obama-Medvedev meetings, so schedule coordination is
challenging, but "he is eager to visit if the appropriate
opportunity can be found." Ushakov also said he hoped the
Administration would submit the 123 Agreement to Congress for
approval soon.

IRAN/AFGHANISTAN
--------------


8. (C) Discussing Iran, Burns praised the genuine
partnership between Russia and the U.S. as highlighted by
Russia's role in developing the TRR proposal. The U.S.
remains committed to a dual-track approach using both
pressure and diplomacy. Since Iran is refusing to engage
seriously on the TRR proposal and other offers it is
important to send a signal on the pressure track, for the
sake of reinforcing the credibility of the P5 1 process and
sending a broader message to nuclear aspirant states. He
stressed that pressure is not an end in itself, but a way to
encourage Tehran to engage diplomatically. Ryabkov accepted
this reasoning and said that Russia would cooperate within
the P5 1 framework to pursue a new UN Security Council
resolution containing sanctions measures to put pressure on
Iran. But he said Russia remains skeptical that sanctions
will prove effective based on the historic record. He
expressed appreciation for the low-profile manner in which
the U.S. is pursuing this effort. Ryabkov also said that,
for the dual-track approach to work, the P5 1 should also
consider offering additional incentives to encourage Iranian
cooperation.


9. (C) Prihkodko told U/S Burns that the GOR was "fed up"
with Iranian behavior, in particular the "consistent lack of
transparency on decision-making." He commented that Russia
believes the Iranian hard-liners have a vested interest in
not making progress toward a diplomatic solution: "conflict
and hostility are their life-blood." In response to U/S
Burns' call for continued Russian restraint on S-300
transfers, Ushakov said that Russia believes Tehran is angry
at the GOR for not shipping the S-300s and for supporting
consideration of sanctions in the P5 1 negotiations. He said
Russia was committed to working with the US and other
partners to achieve resolution of the Iranian nuclear
problem, but "can't be seen as always following the
U.S.-please let us be seen as leading sometimes."


10. (C) U/S Burns noted positive U.S.-Russian cooperation on
Afghanistan with the Lethal Transit agreement, expressed hope
for additional joint work on counter-narcotics, and welcomed
Russian interest in economic reconstruction projects.
Ryabkov said Russia wants to increase cooperation in 2010 and
expressed interest in the idea of Afghan neutrality suggested
in the discussion paper for the London Conference. He
confirmed FM Lavrov will lead the GOR delegation. Ryabkov
welcomed stepped-up cooperation on CN, Russia's top priority
in Afghanistan, and also urged the U.S. to consider a UNSC
resolution calling for markers on precursor chemicals to help
limit their in-flow into Afghanistan. Ryabkov characterized
the remaining issues on the Lethal Transit agreement as
"peanuts" which will be resolved quickly. Prikhodko said
Russia "well understood the serious responsibility that
President Obama has taken on himself and his Administration
to improve the situation in Afghanistan," adding that "Russia
will do the maximum possible to help and coordinate there."

MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS/YEMEN
--------------

MOSCOW 00000144 003 OF 004




11. (C) On the MEPP, U/S Burns said we were looking at FM
Lavrov's proposal for a Quartet Ministerial in Mosocw and
said Special Envoy Mitchell will follow up with DFM Sultanov.
Ryabkov signaled Moscow will step up its activity in the
region, including by hosting separate visits in the coming
weeks by Abbas and Netanyahu. Burns also said the U.S. wants
to strengthen the Syria-Israel track, either independently or
through Turkey, notwithstanding the current friction between
Tel Aviv and Ankara. Ushakov told U/S Burns that PM
Netanyahu will be in Moscow in late February - "this time his
visit won't be such a secret" - and said that both Medvedev
and Putin would engage with him intensively on both Iran and
MEPP.


12. (C) Ryabkov queried Burns on Yemen, noting that, in
contrast to Somalia, Sanaa does have some institutional
capacity to address pressing issues, such as military
capabilities against piracy. Burns summarized the daunting
resource and political challenges, the most pressing of which
is Al Qaeda, facing the Yemeni government. He stressed the
need for Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to work with the
international community to help Yemen, noting the
international meeting on Yemen before the London Afghanistan
conference.

CAUCASUS/UKRAINE
--------------


13. (C) Ryabkov rehashed familiar Russian complaints that
Georgia is engaged in a military build-up and acquiring
heavy weapons, some of which are positioned close to the
Russian border. He said Russia favors the adoption of a "non
use of force" agreement through the Geneva process. He also
asked that the U.S. issue visas to representatives from South
Ossetia and Abkhazia so they can attend meetings in New York,
claiming there is precedent for representatives of entities
not recognized by the U.S. to receive visas.


14. (C) Burns thanked Russia for its active and constructive
engagement on the Nagorno Karabakh issue and on
Turkey-Armenia reconciliation. Ryabkov said Russia was using
PM Erdogan's concurrent Moscow visit to push Turkey to ratify
the protocols with Armenia even absent progress on Nagorno
Karabakh and that Lavrov was doing the same in Yerevan.
Overall on Nagorno-Karabakh, Ryabkov was guarded, saying the
chances for success are "somewhat higher" than a year ago.
Ushakov said that Putin's meeting with Erdogan the day before
had been focused on energy issues. Prikhodko said that
Medvedev had pushed Erdogan on ratification of the protocols
during their meeting. He also confirmed that Medvedev would
invite Presidents Sargisian and Aliyev to Sochi on January 23
to push the two sides to make progress under the framework
established by the Minsk Group.


15. (C) Prikhodko told U/S Burns that the GOR is not
supporting any candidate in the Ukrainian elections. He said
the Russian leadership was impressed by Serhiy Thipko, but
was not picking favorites, except to say that "any of the
candidates would be better than Yushchenko," adding that "we
will work cooperatively with whomever wins."

VENEZUELA
--------------


16. (C) Burns called on Russia to exercise restraint in
selling Manpads to Venezuela, which has transferred such
weapons to the FARC, which in turn targets Americans.
Ryabkov claimed the GOV has been cooperative on end-use
inspections of weapons and there has been "no cases of
abuse." He added that border tension between Venezuela and
Colombia has decreased and Russia is not contributing to
instability there.

AIR MARSHALS MOU
--------------


17. (C) In light of the Christmas Day terrorist attempt,
Burns requested Russia again consider a U.S.-proposed MOU
permitting, on a reciprocal basis, air marshals on U.S.- and
Russia-flagged commercial air carriers. Ryabkov said the
proposal is with the Ministry of Transport and he will follow
up and provide an answer.

MEAT TRADE/SANCTIONS
--------------

MOSCOW 00000144 004 OF 004




18. (C) In his meeting with Prikhodko, U/S Burns raised our
concerns that a substantial volume of trade in chicken and
pork was being disrupted by protectionist measures in the
guise of health and safety controls. He noted that a senior
USDA delegation would be arriving in Moscow the following
week. Prikhodko said he understood our concerns but noted
that Russia was simply seeking to harmonize its regulations
with the EU. He also said that Russia would welcome the
lifting of U.S. export control violation sanctions on Russian
companies as a "positive gesture." Ushakov told U/S Burns
that in Turkish PM Erdogan's recent visit to Moscow, Putin
had told him that there might be new opportunities for
Turkish chicken producers to enter the Russian market if
American exporters failed to comply with new Russian safety
regulations. (Trade issues were also discussed in U/S Burns'
meeting with DPM Shuvalov, septel.)

BILATERAL PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION
--------------


19. (C) During a discussion on the Bilateral Presidential
Commission, EUR DAS Russell and Ryabkov agreed the Commission
is one tool to diversify the relationship beyond arms control
and to achieve concrete results. Ryabkov noted that the
Commission and the relationship as a whole have accomplished
a great deal given the state of the relationship one year
ago. He added that the key now in the BPC is to produce
deliverables and that we use the Commission for discussions
on issues such as the poultry dispute to ensure such problems
do not become "politicized" (Note: notwithstanding PM Putin's
pointedly political statements on the issue the previous day).


20. (C) Edward Malayan, the MFA BPC coordinator, said the
recent joint statement on the Commission was a positive
signal to the public and to those participating in the work
that the process is moving forward, but he added that "we
sugar-coated" the statement because not much has been
accomplished. He urged both sides to think creatively about
big projects that could spotlight positive cooperation
between our countries such as Apollo-Soyuz or work on the
super-collider. Russell agreed the BPC needs to transition
from a focus on process to results and noted the urgency of
this task since the one-year anniversary of the BPC is fast
approaching.


21. (C) The subject of the Commission was also raised in U/S
Burns' meeting with Prikhodko. Prikhodko said Russia agreed
that we need to show concrete progress on multiple fronts in
our relationship this year, and the Commission would be a key
vehicle for making things happen. Ushakov told U/S Burns
that he was glad that Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff
Surkov would be in Washington later this month for the first
Civil Society Working Group session and other meetings. "He
is an important guy, and this is an important channel to
develop," Ushakov said.


22. (U) U/S Burns cleared this message.
Beyrle