Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10MONTEVIDEO98
2010-02-11 19:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Montevideo
Cable title:  

Uruguay: Race to Lead Montevideo Bruises Ruling Coalition

Tags:  PGOV UY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0098/01 0421957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111956Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0219
INFO MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000098 

SIPDIS
FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay: Race to Lead Montevideo Bruises Ruling Coalition

REF: 09 MONTEVIDEO 758 AND PREVIOUS

Summary

------------



UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000098

SIPDIS
FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay: Race to Lead Montevideo Bruises Ruling Coalition

REF: 09 MONTEVIDEO 758 AND PREVIOUS

Summary

--------------




1. (SBU) Of all the offices to be contested in Uruguay's May 9
municipal elections, the position of intendente (a combination of
governor and mayor) of Montevideo carries by far the greatest
political weight. Montevideo's status as a bastion of ruling
Frente Amplio (FA) coalition support, however, means that the
governorship is decided less by the May 9 vote itself then by the
preceding struggle to win the FA candidacy. That contest just
concluded, offering a surprising result that saw the front runner,
Socialist Daniel Martinez, fail to capitalize on his early
advantage. He eventually lost the nomination to a compromise
candidate, Communist Ana Olivera. Getting to that result resulted
in some significant intra-FA dust-ups, which appear to have
strengthened the small Communist Party at the expense of the
Socialist Party. End Summary.



A Shoe-in, but which foot?

--------------




2. (U) After last year's primary, general and run-off elections,
the May 9 municipal vote marks the fourth and final stage of
Uruguay's five-year electoral cycle. Although the intendencia and
departmental parliament of each of Uruguay's 19 departments are in
contention, the greatest interest surrounds the question of who
will become Montevideo's intendente, by far the most powerful and
high profile of the departmental posts due to size and location.
With high FA popularity levels, most observers believe that the
FA's 20-year dominance of the post will continue after May.
Attention has therefore been focused not on which party will win
the post, but rather on whom the FA will nominate.




3. (U) Under Uruguayan law, each party contesting an intendencia is
allowed to field up to three candidates, although in practice,
strategy and resources determine the number of candidates that the
political parties nominate. The district parliamentary seats are
then allocated in proportion to the sum of votes each party gathers
from its candidates, with the party attracting the most votes not
only gaining the governorship, but a guaranteed 16 of the
parliament's 30 seats. In the case of the FA's Montevideo
campaign, a common assumption was that Daniel Martinez, a senator
elect from the Socialist Party, would be the FA's principal
candidate. Although Martinez failed in his bid for the FA's

presidential nomination last year, he nevertheless commands wide
support that the Socialist faction believed would easily translate
into a candidacy and consequently, the intendencia.




4. (U) On 25 January, the FA Montevideo Assembly (the 111 person
body charged with selecting candidates) convened and announced that
only one candidate would stand, a decision publically supported by
both president elect Jose Mujica and vice president elect Danilo
Astori. The expressed intent of this move was to avoid feeding the
fierce factionalism that marred last year's battle for the
presidential nomination. Problematically, neither Martinez (backed
mainly by the Socialists and the Communists) nor Carlos Varela
(backed by Mujica's Popular Participation Movement (MPP) and
Astori's Asemblia Uruguay (AU) faction) seemed disposed to step
aside. The mood of disunity deepened when some Socialists declared
that they would continue to support Martinez even in the event that
he failed to be selected. The situation did not improve when
neither candidate secured the requisite 4/5 majority from the
assembly; Varela gleaned a paltry 37 votes while Martinez fell
short with a total of 60 votes.



Plan B?

--------------


5. (U) At this stage, unwilling to countenance Martinez as a
candidate, but with Varela's campaign effectively dead in the
water, leaders of the MPP and AU hustled to put Communist Party
member and present Vice Minister of Social development Ana Olivera
forward as a compromise candidate. The idea gained traction within
the FA as the week progressed, although public support was less
readily apparent; many viewed Olivera's emergence as the result of
a backroom deal between the MPP and the Communist party. Still,
it grew clear to delegates that Olivera represented the FA's best
way forward, and on January 28 the committee reconvened and Olivera
duly crossed the 90 vote threshold she needed to become the
official candidate and probable intendente.



Pride before a fall?

--------------




6. (U) The fallout from Martinez's thwarted bid has left the
internal structure of the FA somewhat bruised. The most immediate
causalities are the Socialist party, many members of which were
left angry at their failure to better position their candidate and
asking themselves how they were so easily bested. Martinez had
been promised the backing of the Socialist party, the Communists,
and the important Vertiente Artiguista faction of the FA, and he
also had the majority of the party base. A recent poll of FA
supporters had given his candidacy 66 percent approval while Verela
and Olivera had pulled in just 12 percent and 7 percent
respectively. Others in the FA were swift to offer explanations
for Martinez's implosion, most of which reflected the shift of
power over the last two years within the FA from the Socialists to
the further-left MPP and Communist parties. The mildest such
explanation was that Martinez and his ilk had "already had their
turn" governing Montevideo and that Martinez "doesn't really know"
the city. Others cited the Socialist's "pride," alleged
unwillingness to compromise, and apparent "distain" for the
leadership of other factions as the source of their disappointment.
Mujica's wife, Senator Lucia Topolansky, criticized the Socialists
for having trumpeted Martinez as the FA candidate before the
convention had even had a chance to discuss it.



Whodunnit?

--------------




7. (SBU) A broader view of the dust up, however, offers additional
explanations that reflect lines of division generated by last
year's fight for the presidential candidacy. Early on in the
process of preparing for his campaign, Mujica tried to strike a
deal with the Socialists, and is even rumored to have offered the
role of vice president to Martinez as part of the bargain. The
Socialists, however, went on to back Astori, and many suspect that
as a consequence, Martinez's bid for the intendencia may have
simply been vetoed by Mujica. By contrast, it has been noted that
the Communist Party, which, while not always natural allies of the
MPP, was the first to throw its weight behind Mujica's candidacy.




8. (SBU) Interestingly, Mujica may not have been the only player to
favor a veto. Some feel Astori, despite the Socialists' support for
his own candidacy, could have had a hand in Martinez's undoing. In
Astori's case, however, the move could be preemptive as he is
expected to make a presidential bid in the 2014 elections and may
have been uneasy with a potential rival such as Martinez elevated
to the very public platform of Montevideo's intendencia. In any
case, Astori's failure to support Martinez will sour his relations
with the Socialists, further reducing his less-than-robust support
within the FA.



A Positive Spin

--------------




9. (U) There is little doubt that the Socialists have been given a
very public knock. Some party members argue, however, that while

their standing within the coalition has been negatively impacted,
their standing with electorate remains unscathed. Even more
optimistic individuals, buoyed by the 60 percent support Martinez
pulled in from the party base, assert that Martinez's "vetoing"
actually places him and the socialist party in a stronger position
for 2014. In contrast, the less sanguine elements of the party
feel that it is difficult to frame the loss of Martinez's
nomination as anything other than wasted opportunity. Many
Socialists have concluded the party pushed Martinez's candidacy too
hard and that it is suffering politically as a consequence.



Ana Olivera: Biographic information

-------------- ---




10. (U) Fifty-six year old Ana Olivera is currently the Vice
Minister for Social Affairs (MIDES),but she has worked steadily,
albeit relatively anonymously, for the FA in various capacities
(including, in 1995, as Director of the western division of the
Montevideo municipality) over a period of 15 years. Originally
trained as a teacher, Olivera joined the Tupamaro guerilla movement
and consequently spent several years in self-exile in Cuba, where
she joined the Communist Party. Returning to Uruguay in 1985 she
affiliated herself with the Communist Party in Montevideo and began
her political career. In her position in MIDES, Olivera has played
an integral part in implementing many of the FA's social policies,
often in a hands-on manner that has made her popular in many of
Montevideo's neighborhoods. Additionally, as at least one of the
papers noted approvingly, she travels to work by bus and continues
to teach high school French in order to "keep her feet on the
ground."



Comment

--------------




11. (SBU) The FA's internal organization is complicated, and
coalition leaders often mention the need to revamp it. It is
possible that the goings-on detailed above will provide additional
impetus. Much will depend on how well Olivera does in the
election. In the meantime, FA leaders are cautioning Martinez to
be patient, noting that there will likely be a cabinet posting for
him in the coming years. End Comment.
Nelson