LIBERIA - PRESIDENT SIRLEAF WILL SEEK SECOND TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000095

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV KDEM LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA - PRESIDENT SIRLEAF WILL SEEK SECOND TERM

REF: 09 MONROVIA 487; 09 MONROVIA 549

CLASSIFIED BY: Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Ambassador, State, AF;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf announced her
intention to run for re-election at the conclusion of her annual
message to the National Legislature. Sirleaf was widely criticized
for making a campaign announcement at a governmental event and her
high-profile announcement is a direct challenge to the
recommendations of the Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Commission
that she be banned from politics for thirty years and proof that
she sees herself as the people's candidate. In her speech, Sirleaf
recommended a way forward for dealing with the controversial TRC
proposals by ensuring that they are in line with Liberia's laws and
constitutions, and moving forward on less controversial
recommendations. Former warlord Prince Johnson, listed in the TRC
report for prosecution, announced his presidential candidacy on the
same day, but was overshadowed by Sirleaf. These announcements,
well in advance of the October 2011 election, leave presidential
contenders plenty of time to reconcile their candidacy with the
TRC's proposals. END SUMMARY.



SIRLEAF ANNOUNCES INTENT TO SEEK RE-ELECTION IN LEGISLATIVE ADDRESS




2. (C) Referring to herself as a "formidable candidate," Liberian
President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf announced her intention to run for
re-election in 2011 at the conclusion of her January 25 annual
message to the National Legislature. The announcement comes
despite Sirleaf's promise during the 2005 electoral campaign not to
seek a second term. The timing of the president's announcement was
unexpected and Sirleaf confidants told Ambassador after the speech
that the re-election plan was not part of her speech's final text
and they were unaware of the president's intention to make the
announcement now. Regardless, the announcement was the high point
of the president's speech and she received a standing ovation from
the majority of legislators present.



WHAT PROMPTED THE ANNOUNCEMENT AT SUCH A HIGH-PROFILE EVENT?




3. (C) After the June 2009 publication of the Liberian Truth and
Reconciliation Commission's draft report listing Sirleaf among
those to be excluded from holding public office for 30 years (Ref
A),the president has backpedaled from her 2005 one-term pledge and
engaged in campaign-like stumping at public events. She also
refuted the TRC's alleged version of her relationship with former
President Charles Taylor during the 1990s in her July 26
Independence Day speech (Ref B). Sirleaf has privately intimated
to her advisors and Ambassador that the TRC's decision to list her
was a politicized decision meant to hold her to her one-term
pledge. This challenge from the TRC steeled her decision to run
for re-election.




4. (U) There is no constitutional restraint to Sirleaf seeking
re-election and Sirleaf stressed to legislators that Liberians must
"make a conscious national determination to move ahead cautiously
and strategically in the implementation of the [TRC's]
recommendations." In her speech, the president suggested that
parts of the TRC's recommendations be put forward to the still
unconfirmed members of the Independent National Human Rights
Commission (INHRC),who are tasked with ensuring implementation of
the report's proposals. She also recommended that the act creating
the INHRC be amended to allow the Ministry of Justice to work with
the INHRC in determining which TRC recommendations are enforceable
under Liberia's laws and constitution.



CRITICISM OF ANNOUNCEMENT VENUE




5. (SBU) Sirleaf was later publicly criticized by opposition party
leaders for using the occasion of an annual governmental address to
announce her re-election run rather than at an event coordinated
with her Unity Party. Press reports quoted Liberty Party leader
Charles Brumskine as troubled by Sirleaf's inability to discern a
constitutionally required address from a "campaign affair."

MONROVIA 00000095 002 OF 002


FORMER WARLORD ENTERS THE FRAY




6. (C) Also on January 25, former Independent National Patriotic
Front of Liberia faction leader Prince Johnson, who now serves as
an independent senator from Nimba County, announced his candidacy
for the presidency with Grand Cape Mount County Senator Abel
Massallay as his running mate. Johnson is one of eight major
combatant leaders recommended for prosecution for gross human
rights violations in the TRC report; he has consistently professed
his innocence. Massallay is a former confidant of Charles Taylor
and a member of Taylor's National Patriotic Party. The duo has
little chance of success given their questionable activities during
Liberia's civil war, but their decision to run is likely aimed at
gaining early support among Taylor's remaining supporters.



COMMENT:




7. (C) Sirleaf's announcement fully overshadowed the contents of
her annual address and preempted any criticisms of her recited list
of accomplishments and governmental plan of action in the near
term. Advanced warning of her candidacy, well in advance of the
presidential election scheduled for October 2011, plus the call for
the involvement of the Ministry of Justice (led by many Sirleaf
devotees) in the INHRC's affairs gives Sirleaf's supporters plenty
of time to ensure that her candidacy is legal and constitutional no
matter what the TRC recommends. Further Embassy reporting will
follow on public reaction to Sirleaf's announcement and other
details of her annual message.
THOMAS-GREENFIELD