LIBERIA - LEGISLATURE SLOW TO CONFRONT HOT BUTTON ISSUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONROVIA 000198

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ECON SOCI LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA - LEGISLATURE SLOW TO CONFRONT HOT BUTTON ISSUES

REF: (A.) 09 MONROVIA 763; (B.) 09 MONROVIA 695; (C.) 10 MONROVIA 164
(D.) 10 MONROVIA 196


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Since the January 11 opening of the 2010
legislative session, Liberia's lawmakers have confronted, but not
resolved controversial, high-profile political items, including
electoral reforms and an official response to the Truth and
Reconciliation Commission (TRC) report's recommendations.
Resolution of these issues is required before the 2011 elections
can go ahead. However, a focus on questions meant to attract voter
attention in the run-up to the 2011 vote means that unpopular
legislation, such as a legislative code of conduct or measures
needed to help Liberia reach Completion Point under the Highly
Indebted Poor Countries' Initiative (HIPC),will lose traction if
legislators are not urged to confront these latter issues. END
SUMMARY.



OPENING CEREMONY DRAWS HEAVY ATTENDANCE FROM GOL OFFICIALS

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2. (U) The National Legislature opened its 5th session in a January
11 joint ceremony that drew heavy attendance from all branches of
government, including President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Chief
Justice Johnnie Lewis. In a precursor to her January 25 annual
message (Ref C),Sirleaf's keynote speech highlighted the
challenges presented by the country's budgetary crisis and stressed
the importance of passing an Electoral Threshold Bill. In
follow-on remarks, House Speaker J. Alex Tyler promised the passage
of a legislative code of conduct and the Freedom of Information Act
(FOIA),as well as to work with the Liberian Anti-Corruption and
Governance Commissions on legal reforms. Three hundred peaceful
demonstrators who were prevented from entering the Capitol grounds
by security called for passage of the FOIA, threshold bill, a
legislative code of conduct, and confirmation of the Independent
National Human Rights Commission's (INHRC) members.



PREPARATIONS FOR 2011 ELECTIONS

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3. (U) One of the Senate's first actions was its January 12
concurrence on the Electoral Threshold Bill passed by the House of
Representatives in 2009 after Sirleaf line-item vetoed the bill's
earlier provision guaranteeing each county two seats in the House
(Ref B). The measure was re-submitted to Sirleaf, but retained the
population threshold of 40,000 residents per electoral district.
[NOTE. This threshold would add 23 seats to the House at an
estimated annual cost up to USD 6 million per year. END NOTE.]




4. (U) Sirleaf vetoed the latest threshold measure on February 10.
In a letter to House Speaker Tyler, she cited the "grave financial
implications" of expanding the legislature and emphasized the
increasing cost of the institution's budget, which has grown by 135
percent since 2007. Sirleaf recommended a threshold of 48,000,
equaling an increase of only six representatives.




5. (SBU) Many legislators remain committed to a threshold level
which will ensure at least two seats for some of the less populous
counties, but they lack the votes needed to surmount Sirleaf's
veto. In a February 22 meeting with Ambassador, Sirleaf said she
told Speaker Tyler and Senate President Pro Tempore Cletus Wotorson
that a threshold resulting in an 8-10 seat expansion was
acceptable. Any further augmentation would be too costly.




6. (U) A joint resolution proposing election-related constitutional
amendments was put forward for senators' consideration on February

16. The recommended constitutional modifications in the measure
are similar to those passed by the legislature in last year's
"Electoral Reform Law" (Ref A). The earlier measure was forwarded

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to President Sirleaf for signature, but she passed it back to
lawmakers for reconsideration.




7. (U) The new proposal requires presidential and vice presidential
candidates to be "domiciled" in Liberia 10 years immediately prior
to an election rather than physically "resident," meaning that
President Sirleaf and other prospective electoral candidates who
left Liberia during the civil war could participate. Unlike its
predecessor, it does not attempt to reduce the president's term
from six to five years. As in the 2009 measure, the constitution
will be changed to:



--mandate local elections of mayors and city councils;

--remove the president's power to dismiss local chiefs;

--raise the minimum size of a political party from 500 voters

in at least six counties to 10,000 voters in ten counties;

--move national elections from the second Tuesday in October

of an election year to the first Tuesday in November and

--require only a simple majority to win any election with

the exception of the presidency and vice presidency.




8. (SBU) If the joint resolution is passed and signed by the
president, a constitutional referendum will be required in early

2011. Public approval means the amendments will apply in the 2011
general election. During the Senate debate, some lawmakers
contended that Liberia's constitution should be reviewed by a
constitutional commission and all recommended amendments be put to
a public vote in a single referendum, rather than a series of
costly public polls.



TRC REPORT STILL BEING DIGESTED, INHRC STALLED

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9. (SBU) At the close of last year's session, legislators were
asked by their leaders to elicit constituent views on the
recommendations in the TRC final report over the course of the fall
agricultural break. Senators discussed citizen responses on
January 12. Many reported calls for a path of reconciliation that
disregards the report's calls for prosecution or other punishment.
Other senators said that constituents want a total shelving of the
report. [NOTE. Several legislators are recommended for
prosecution or sanction in the TRC report. END NOTE.]




10. (SBU) In a related action, senators rejected the nominees for
the INHRC, the TRC's successor body, in a January 28 vote.
However, after a successful February 4 motion to reconsider,
senators held a public cross-examination of the INHRC candidates in
open session. The nominees were pressed on what emphasis they
intended to place on the TRC report if confirmed. Senator Prince
Johnson, a former warlord recommended for prosecution in the TRC
report, was especially insistent on learning the nominees' views on
how the TRC's recommendations should be executed. The respondents
successfully skirted a controversial discussion by emphasizing
their intent to focus on promoting human rights in Liberia if
confirmed.




11. (SBU) Legislators have asked Sirleaf for a formal report on the
"implementation of the [TRC's] recommendations" by March 1, as
required by the TRC Act. Sirleaf recommended empowering the
Ministry of Justice to work with the INHRC to determine whether the
TRC's recommendations are constitutional in her January 22 annual
message (Ref C). No further legislative action on either the TRC
or INHRC is expected until after Sirleaf forwards the
aforementioned items to lawmakers.

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KEY LEGISLATION FOR HIPC

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12. (U) Chris Lane, team leader of the IMF's mission to Liberia,
shared IMF concerns regarding legislative inaction on key
legislation required for Liberia to reach Completion Point under
the HIPC Initiative in a February 12 discussion with Econoff.
President Sirleaf declared in her annual message that Liberia would
achieve CP this spring. Although the legislature passed a Public
Financial Management Act in August 2009, the IMF requires further
amendments to the law after President Sirleaf inadvertently signed
an early draft of the act that differed from the one passed by the
legislature. Furthermore, the Investment Code continues to
languish in committee, delayed by the contentious debate between
free market reformers who wish to encourage foreign investment and
those who wish to reserve particular industries for Liberians only.




COMMENT

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13. (SBU) A focus on electoral preparations and taking politically
calculated actions in the run-up to the 2011 campaign means that
passage of important, but unpopular legislation, such as HIPC
completion measures or a code of conduct, will require pressure
from the Executive Mansion with the support of international
partners. There will also be public pressure for the GOL to
respond to the TRC's recommendations in a manner that attracts
broad public support. So far, we find the senators' reports from
their constituent consultations rather disingenuous; it is unlikely
that there was no sentiment for punishment for war crimes among the
Liberian public.
THOMAS-GREENFIELD