Scenesetter for Ex-IM Chairman Fred Hochberg

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 000690

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE/TREASURY PASS TO EX-IM BANK

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD MX OVIP
SUBJECT: Scenesetter for Ex-IM Chairman Fred Hochberg


1. (SBU) Summary. Your visit comes at a crucial moment in our
efforts to deepen our bilateral relationship with Mexico, our third
largest trading partner after Canada and China. As we
institutionalize our security agenda we will also need to give more
attention to the economic and social agendas in a country whose
economic and social well-being affects ours directly. The United
States' global competitiveness depends increasingly on a more
competitive Mexico. Efforts to strengthen our mutually beneficial
competitiveness in 2010 will focus on spurring innovation, creating
jobs on both sides of the border, building a modern 21st century
border, encouraging the requisite regulations and infrastructure,
and supporting a sustainable energy and environment agenda. All
these are top priorities for the Calderon administration and offer
huge potential for future U.S. investment and economic development.
Mexico's and our economic recovery go hand in hand, and U.S.
export-led successes depend increasingly on partnering with
Mexico's lower-cost manufacturing capability. President Calderon
is personally devoted to the issue of climate change and renewable
energy, opening the possibility for trade and investment
opportunities that benefit both countries. End Summary.



Political Context

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2. (SBU) Present Calderon enters the last three years of his
six-year term facing a complicated political and economic
environment. His PAN party emerged seriously weakened from a
dramatic 2009 mid-term election in which the opposition (PRI)
gained control of the Mexican Congress. His popularity numbers
have dropped 10-points since the beginning of last year, yet they
still hover solidly over 50 percent. He is by no means a lame
duck. Still, the opposition PRI party is in the ascendancy,
cautiously managing its illusory unity in an effort to dominate the
ten gubernatorial contests that are up in the coming year, and to
avoid any missteps that could jeopardize its front-runner status in
the run-up to the 2012 presidential elections. In addition, the
public's deepening economic worries have begun to counterbalance
their concern about security.



Economic Context

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3. (SBU) Following the 2009 electoral setback, Calderon made
creating jobs and eradicating poverty his top two priorities for
2010, sharing the agenda with security issues that have become
acutely sensitive in the past weeks due to the persistent violence
in Ciudad Juarez. It is important that Calderon succeed in making
real progress on the economy and security in the last three years
of his term. The economic and security agendas are time-sensitive
and volatile, and the more momentum that can be achieved now, the
greater the prospect for continuity into a new administration.
However, the complexities of pushing viable economic reforms
through an opposition Congress complicate advancing such an agenda.
If Calderon is unable to strengthen Mexico's competitiveness in
order to promote jobs and eradicate poverty, the United States will
also feel the impact through immigration pressures and greater
volatility in high-violence cities that have been the battleground
for narco-traffickers. A stable and growing Mexico is in both our
security and economic interests.




4. (SBU) The oil sector is a crucial component of Mexico's economy
and is the largest source of export earnings for the country,
accounting for 10 percent of all export earnings. However,
Mexico's oil production has declined rapidly from a peak of 3.4
million barrels per day in 2004 to a projected 2.5 million barrels
per day in 2010. Despite some optimistic GOM forecasts, there are
no realistic options for reversing this decline in the short to
medium term. Mexico has relied heavily on the Cantarell oil field,
one of the largest in the world. Despite nitrogen injection and
other enhanced oil recovery techniques, the Cantarell field has
entered a stage of long-term decline with production falling by
more than 70% from its peak of over 2 million barrels a day in 2004

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to less than 650,000 barrels per day in 2009.




5. (SBU) The Mexican government's reliance on oil revenue to
finance over one third of the federal budget has deprived Mexico's
state owned oil company, Pemex, of much needed capital for
exploration, production, and infrastructure projects. As a result
of decades of underinvestment, Pemex today finds itself without
alternative oil fields which could compensate for Cantarell's
decline. Pemex accelerated the development of the giant
Chicontepec oil basin in 2009, investing $2 billion with the goal
of increasing production from 29,000 to 90,000 barrels in 2009.
With 750 new wells drilled over the past year, overall production
remains stagnant and production per well has fallen dramatically.
Although the Chicontepec fields are estimated to contain almost 9
billion barrels of reserves, Chicontepec is a complex reservoir
which involves technical challenges and significant operational
costs. Exploiting Chicontepec will require high-risk investments
and the drilling of a large number of wells for relatively small
returns. Many experts believe that even with substantial
investments, Pemex will have a difficult time reaching its 600,000
barrel a day production goal by 2021. Other fields Mexico is
currently exploiting include Ku Maloob Zaap, which has reached peak
production levels; Crudo Ligero Marino and other smaller fields in
the south which are largely enhanced oil recovery projects will do
little to reverse Mexico's production decline.



U.S. Exports to Mexico

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6. (SBU) Mexico is the U.S.'s 3rd largest trade partner and 2nd
largest export market for U.S. products. U.S-Mexico bilateral
trade increased from USD 88 billion in 1993 to USD 301.87
(projected) in 2009. Mexico depends heavily on trade with the U.S.
with the U.S. supplying as much as 60% of total Mexican imports.



National Infrastructure Plan (NIP)

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7. (SBU) The National Infrastructure Program (NIP) was launched by
Mexican President Calderon in July 2007 to dramatically increase
infrastructure investment, in energy, transportation and the
environment. The NIP is being financed using public-private
partnerships, with significant Mexican public sector investment.
The NIP aims to increase infrastructure investment by 50 percent
that, if sustained, according to Mexican government officials could
place Mexico in the world's top 20 countries for infrastructure
competitiveness by 2030. Mexico currently ranks of 68 out of 125
countries worldwide in infrastructure.




8. (SBU) However, the economic crisis has impacted availability of
financing and many projects have been delayed. In an effort to
invigorate the program and generate interest among U.S. investors
and exporters in key NIP projects, Mexico's Secretary of Finance,
Agustin Carstens, (he is now President of the Central Bank) led a
group of Mexican government officials including, BANOBRAS Director,
Alonso Garcia, to New York in November 2009. The group made a
formal presentation that included distribution of a list of
priority infrastructure projects that Mexico is pursuing.



BANOBRAS

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9. (SBU) BANOBRAS, Mexico's public works bank, provides financing
and technical assistance for infrastructure projects or public
services directly or through concessions, permits or operating

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contracts with private companies. BANOBRAS financing reached
approximately USD 5 billion in 2009. In 2010, it will be over USD
3 billion. FONADIN (Fond Nacional de Infraestructura) was
established in February 2008, by the decree of President Calderon,
for infrastructure development in communications, transportation,
water, natural resources and tourism. FONADIN is attached to
BANOBRAS, which in turn reports ultimately to the Secretariat of
Finance.



Pension Funds and Capital Development Certificates

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10. (SBU) Institutional investors such as pension funds have
recently entered the infrastructure project finance game with eased
restrictions and the development of Capital Development
Certificates (Cecades). In October 2009, President Calderon
announced that this new debt instrument will make a total of USD 10
billion available for infrastructure projects by the end of his
presidency in 2012. Soon after the announcement, Goldman Sachs
Infrastructure Partners sold a 6.55 billion peso (USD 477.3
million) stake in a toll road concession to Mexican pension funds.
The purchase made institutional investors a 32% stakeholder in Red
de Carreteras de Occidente, or RCO, which operates four toll roads
in central Mexico.




11. (SBU) Australian investment bank, Macquarie, followed with the
creation of the Macquarie Mexican Infrastructure Fund with
approximately USD 408 million in initial commitments from Mexican
pension funds, FONADIN and Macquarie. This fund is the first
peso-denominated fund solely focused on investment opportunities in
Mexican infrastructure projects. FONADIN's current commitment to
the fund is USD 80 million of the total.




12. (SBU) The involvement of pension funds (with USD 100 billion
under management),is an important attempt by the Mexican
government to stimulate investment in infrastructure given the
shortfall in international financial markets. Ex-Im Bank's
proposed Memorandum of Understanding comes as the Mexican
government is aggressively pursuing financing sources.



USG support of the NIP

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13. (SBU) Since the announcement of the NIP the U.S. Embassy in
Mexico has coordinated USG resources including USTDA, EX-IM Bank,
USDOC to name a few in support of NIP projects. Specifically, the
U.S. Embassy has facilitated on-going discussions between Ex-Im
Bank and FONADIN toward the establishment of a closer working
relationship. The MOU that you will sign with BANOBRAS during your
visit is a significant statement of USG support for Mexico's
Infrastructure development.




14. (SBU) Overall, your visit comes at a critical time as project
and export financing is needed to support the development and
completion of the projects identified in the NIP. It is also
important to keep in mind that increased investment in Mexico's
infrastructure supports regional competitiveness and furthers
economic development of both the United States and Mexico.



Renewable Energy

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15. (SBU) Advancing bilateral cooperation on renewable energy,

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energy efficiency and the environmental agenda has been a top
priority for both President Obama and President Calderon since
their first meeting January 2009. This agenda was formalized when
the Bilateral Clean Energy and Climate Change Framework was
announced during President Obama's April 2009 visit to Mexico. On
January 25-26 a senior level working group met in Washington to
discuss pragmatic steps to advance this collaboration. The working
group agreed to establish a bilateral task force which will work to
create a renewable energy market between Baja California and
California. The task force will consider standards, transmission
capacity, regulatory issues and financing. This pilot project
could be able more broadly across the border, creating significant
opportunities for U.S. companies to export green technology to
Mexico. The January 25-26 meeting also helped advance cooperation
on the Framework Convention on Climate Change 16th Conference of
the parties (COP-16) which Mexico is hosting in late 2010.




16. (SBU) You could also stress President Obama's personal
commitment to advancing a joint agenda on climate change and
renewable energy. As well, your interlocutors would benefit from
hearing the administration's commitment to use all available policy
and financial tools, drawing on DOE, EPA, State, TDA, USAID, OPIC,
Ex-Im, and USTR to create a viable renewable energy market between
both countries.
FEELEY