CHIVUKUVUKU: UNITA STALWART CHARTS OWN PATH TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000012

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AO
SUBJECT: CHIVUKUVUKU: UNITA STALWART CHARTS OWN PATH TO
PRESIDENCY AND POSSIBLE PARTY SPLIT

(U) Classified by Ambassador Dan Mozena, Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(D)


1. (C) In a January 12 meeting with Ambassador, UNITA
stalwart Abel Chivukuvuku said he envisions himself as the
future president of Angola. As a first step, he intends to
win the presidency of his party at its next congress, in

2011. If this fails, he will leave UNITA to form his own
party. UNITA has become a "meaningless actor" in Angolan
politics; it has lost its vision, and its leadership has
likewise "lost faith in the possibility of victory."
Chivukuvuku saw two possibilities for the future: one in
which UNITA changes course, regains its earlier popularity,
and offers a real alternative to the MPLA; or, alternatively,
a more "dangerous" future in which the MPLA further
consolidates power and rules unchecked until the death of
President Dos Santos, which will precipitate a period of
chaos.


2. (C) Chivukuvuku maintained he is the man to lead UNITA's
renovation and said he will challenge party president Isaias
Samakuva at the 2011 congress. Given his efforts to motivate
his party base, Chivukuvuku said the MPLA sees his candidacy
as a much greater threat than that of Samakuva and might well
try to stymie it, as he believed it had at the 2007 UNITA
party congress. If prevented from winning the party
presidency, he said he would severe ties with UNITA and form
his own party. He has already been in contact with a number
of smaller parties as well as other disaffected UNITA leaders
and members on the possibility of crafting a new party, if
necessary. In any case, he intends to be engaged in the 2012
election, either as head of UNITA or of some yet to be
created party.


3. (C) Chivukuvuku laid out a simple electoral strategy.
There was little chance that UNITA would win elections in
2012, he said. Rather, the party should focus on generating
a sense of upward movement and dynamism, sorely lacking in
UNITA's last electoral campaign. Even a vote tally of 18 or
20 percent, as opposed to UNITA's 2008 ten percent showing,
would create buzz. Chivukuvuku would then focus on winning
elections in 2017. "UNITA," he said, "has got to be in the
game."


4. (C) When Ambassador pressed Chivukuvuku on the specific
points of his electoral platform, Chivukuvuku focused first
on tactics, then cited key issues. UNITA, he said, had
essentially failed in its role as opposition. He proposed
that the party undertake active criticism of MPLA policies
and advocated the formation of a shadow government, which
would issue a critique each Thursday after the announcement
of policy decisions from the regular Wednesday cabinet
meeting. UNITA would call a press conference, which he
conceded would likely be boycotted by the official media, nd
would distribute tracts by hand in areas where the
independent media do not reach. He insisted that UNITA had
the organizational ability to conduct such a campaign in
population centers around the country. Chivukuvuku said that
his campaign would focus on reconciliation and inclusion of
MPLA figures in a new government and would call for an
amnesty for past corruption coupled with a crackdown on
future corruption. He advocated for direct election of the
president. Chivukuvuku spoke at length about his plans for
developing Angola's interior, especially the country's
agricultural potential. He insisted that UNITA could no
longer cling to its Savimbi cult of personality and stressed
that the party has to eschew tribal politics to reach the
largest possible electorate.


5. (C) Comment. Chivukuvuku is an impressive leader with
significant name recognition. In his early 50s, Chivukuvuku
was UNITA's parliamentary leader in the late 1990s. He said
he had avoided UNITA factional disputes and distanced himself
from Savimbi prior to Savimbi's death. He challenged
Samakuva for the party leadership in 2007 and enjoys
considerable support within the party. His dynamism stands
in marked contrast to Samakuva, whose pedantic, professorial
style has failed to motivate UNITA. Should Chivukuvuku move
forward as outlined to Ambassador, his play for UNITA
leadership promises to energize the party, or break it
asunder. End Comment.
MOZENA