UK ELECTION: HUNG PARLIAMENT LOOKING MORE LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000313

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV UK
SUBJECT: UK ELECTION: HUNG PARLIAMENT LOOKING MORE LIKELY

REF: A. LONDON 150 (NOTAL)

B. 09 LONDON 2425

C. 09 LONDON 2745 (NOTAL)

D. 09 LONDON 2844 (NOTAL)

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Classified By: Ambassador Louis B. Susman, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C/NF) Summary. Narrowing polling data suggests the
increased likelihood of a hung parliament in the UK's next
general election, expected May 6. Despite small but
sustained leads in the polls, the Conservative Party has not
managed to seal the deal with the British electorate and
faces the prospect of winning enough seats to make it the
largest party in the House of Commons while failing to
achieve a workable majority. Key battlegrounds will, as
ever, be marginal constituencies and the ability of the
parties (particularly the Conservatives) to court
all-important swing voters. As the parties struggle to
distinguish themselves from one another on the key election
issues of housing, education, health care, the economy, and
job creation, additional factors affecting swing votes will
likely include voter turnout, traditional class voting, the
party leaders' popularity, and how the leaders fare in the
first televised debates in UK election history. The
Conservatives need high turnout of their core voters PLUS a
strong swing vote in order to gain a majority. Without this,
a hung parliament is a strong possibility. End summary.


Polls Suggest Hung Parliament
--------------


2. (C/NF) With the UK's next general election expected within
90 days (May 6 is the likely date),polls that have been
broadly static for several months are beginning to suggest
the increased possibility of a hung parliament in which no
party wins an outright majority. Polls by YouGov and ComRes
at the end of January put the Conservatives at 38 percent,
down two points from December, while Labour rose one point to
31 percent, and the Liberal Democrats were up two at 19
percent. The new numbers are roughly in line with the
40-30-20 split that the Conservatives, Labour, and the Lib
Dems have respectively seen in voting intentions for their
parties since 2007, but the slim and fluctuating margins
indicate that, despite heavy campaign spending in marginal
constituencies and slick advertising, the Conservatives have
yet to convince the British electorate to trust them to
govern.


3. (C/NF) The results are far from definitive: political
polling in the UK has long been used as more of a short-term
snapshot rather than a long-term prediction of voting
intentions. The Conservatives have told us that they ideally
need a 42 percent poll lead with a ten-point spread over
Labour come election day in order to secure a clear
parliamentary majority (ref B). That lead could effectively
slip down to 38 percent if the Tories felt they no longer had
to face "anti-Conservative tactical voting" of the past (i.e.
protest votes for any candidates other than the Conservative
in a constituency). Despite the broadly favorable polling,
Conservative confidence, and a deep campaign war chest, the
Tories have failed to convince the broad electorate that
David Cameron is a trustworthy alternative to Prime Minister
Gordon Brown. What may result is a House of Commons with the
Conservatives as the largest single party, but with
insufficient numbers to reach a majority. The key question
will be how well the Conservatives have courted swing voters
and marginal constituencies in the run-up to the election.


Swing Votes Are Key
--------------


4. (C/NF) In order to secure a majority of one in the House
of Commons, the Conservatives need to win 117 new seats in
the next election. To do this the Tories must focus heavily
on convincing swing voters -- those who voted for other
parties in the last election -- to come into the
Conservative fold. Though the Conservatives have deployed a
robust "targeted seats" campaign, supported by the party's
GBP 18 million campaign fund, to attract voters in marginal
constituencies or those who that have not traditionally voted
Conservative in the past, the party needs to secure an
overall swing of over 6.9 percent among Labour voters to gain
an outright parliamentary majority (ref A). A swing this
large from left to right has not occurred in British politics
in the post-war era; the largest swing from Labour to
Conservative since 1945 has been no more than 5.3 percent,
while Labour attracted a 10.2 percent swing in its 1997

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landslide victory. Most recent Labour to Conservative swings
were 3.2 and 1.8 percent in 2005 and 2001, respectively.
Additionally, no government as far behind in the polls as
Labour currently is has succeeded in winning a general
election. While the statistics of past elections are not
absolutes, they are illustrative of the difficulties both
Labour and the Conservatives face this election. The polling
"lead" that the Conservatives have enjoyed more-or-less
steadily since the end of 2007 is misleading. If the swing
the Conservatives are able to attract falls below about 6.9
percent, the result would probably translate into a hung
parliament, depending on the distribution of the vote.


Importance of Marginal Constituencies
--------------


5. (C/NF) The Labour Party has performed strongly in
marginal constituencies in the last three elections.
Labour's landslide victory in 1997 demonstrated the party's
ability to win small majorities in marginal seats.
Similarly, in the 2005 election Labour used the same formula
targeting marginal constituencies -- winning 88 seats with
less than a majority of 10 percent. Efficient campaigning
and appeals to middle income voters have been effective
Labour tools in courting marginal seats, and the question
will be to what degree the Conservatives can apply this
technique to draw swing votes in these constituencies.


The Queen's Role
--------------


6. (SBU/NF) A hung parliament occurs when no party secures an
absolute majority of parliamentary seats during a general
election. The Queen's constitutional role after an election
is to summon the leader of the majority party and invite him,
as Prime Minister, to form a government. Lacking the command
of a majority, the leader with the largest number of seats
would be forced to turn to smaller parties to explore
coalition options. UK media has reported that the civil
service has begun preparing for the possibility of a hung
parliament by codifying the Queen's role in the event no
party reaches majority. The Queen's advisors are in close
contact with each of the parties and will be in a position to
advise her in the event of a possible coalition forced by a
hung parliament.


Key Factors Affecting the Swing
--------------



7. (C/NF) Popularity and Timing: A number of factors will
influence swing voting and the chance of a hung parliament.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who was never elected to the
post, remains uncharismatic; just a few weeks ago, he fended
off a leadership challenge -- but the reluctance of his
"supporters" shows. He has indicated his intention to remain
at the helm of the Labour party through the election and has
presided over a growing disaffection (and perhaps voter
fatigue with Labour, in power since 1997) toward the
government and Parliament among the electorate. Brown
confidante and former Defense Secretary Des Browne told us
that he did not believe there was enough time for Brown to
turn things around in the remaining months before the
election. Cameron's Tories, however, have not succeeded in
seizing the opportunity that Brown's lack of popularity has
presented. Cameron, who has regularly polled as more
trustworthy and a better leader than Brown, has tried to
distinguish himself from Brown on the budget by calling for
an age of austerity, without detailing what cuts his
government would make, and has fashioned himself as a new
generation Tory, pledging to empower individuals and
communities. But, if Cameron has not been able to capitalize
by this late in the game, what are his chances of attracting
the needed amount of swing votes by May?


8. (C/NF) First-time Debates: A new feature in the election
mix is the introduction of three debates among the three
party leaders once the election date has been announced. The
UK's parliamentary system pits the leaders against one
another each Wednesday during Prime Minister's Questions in
the House of Commons, but presidential-style debates are new
to the UK and -- coming within weeks of the election -- could
play an important role among undecided and potential swing
voters. As a polished and formidable public speaker and
former public relations executive, Cameron stands to lose the
most in the debates as expectations of his performance will

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be high. Brown, a weaker speaker whose public remarks are
highly varied, will likely draw or do slightly better than
expected. Labour insiders have told us the key for Brown
will be not to appear angry or grumpy during the debates, as
he is often perceived by the public. The telegenic Lib Dem
leader Nick Clegg -- the least recognizable of the three --
will do relatively well simply by virtue of being included.


9. (C/NF) Class Voting and Turnout: UK voters tend to revert
to their traditional party allegiances as an election nears
-- despite what they have told pollsters about their voting
intentions in the pre-election period. While voters no
longer distinguish themselves strictly along the ideological
lines of the 1970s and 80s -- socialists versus capitalists
-- there remain strong class ties to voting patterns. A key
trend to watch in this election will be whether working class
voters are prepared to swing from their traditional support
of Labour in favor of the Conservatives' "fixing broken
Britain" manifesto -- in other words, whether Tory plans to
encourage smaller and more accountable government, empower
communities, promote law and order, and ensure personal and
fiscal responsibility translate into votes from the working
class. A second factor will be whether the Conservatives are
able to make inroads into middle income Lib Dem
constituencies. The Tories are banking on a strategy to
attract these working and middle class voters to deliver the
needed 6.9 percent swing; if they fall short, so will the
party's majority.


10. (C/NF) Turnout in the last election in 2005 was 61.4
percent nationally. If turnout remains at this level while
polling still suggests a 40/30/20 split across the parties,
political observers believe the result will be a hung
parliament. Between 1945 and 1997, UK turnout was roughly
between 71-83 percent; 2001 turnout fell to 59.4 percent, and
rose again in 2005 to 61.4 percent. A key determinant is
whether voter disaffection with the Labour government and
particularly with PM Brown will be enough to reverse the
turnout trend and bring voters to the polls in sufficiently
large numbers that -- combined with an adequate swing
nationally or in marginal seats -- will push Cameron over the
top.


Comment
--------------


11. (C/NF) Though current polling numbers suggest it would be
difficult for the Conservatives to win outright, the election
has always been theirs to lose. Typically, the Tories (whose
core supporters are regular and committed voters) hope for
low turnout in elections as it suggests that Labour and Lib
Dem voters have stayed home. This year, however, with the
polls indicating only a relatively modest Conservative lead,
Cameron needs the almost impossible combination of high voter
turnout and a sizable swing vote. His party is hoping that
Labour's low popularity and the Tories' "targeted seats"
campaign might be enough to produce a clean win for the
Conservatives. Shortfalls in either of these variables will
point to a hung parliament and the need for Cameron to search
for coalition partners among the third parties.

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