TOGO: THE FRAC IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE FRAC

UNCLAS LOME 000097

SIPDIS

AF/W - ASHLEY STEWART, AF/PDPA - MOLLY SANCHEZ CROWE
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TO
SUBJECT: TOGO: THE FRAC IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE FRAC

REF: LOME 084


1. As noted in Reftel, the Republican Front for Change, the
alliance formed during a February 9 - 10 meeting of the opposition
candidates in Paris between the Union of Forces for Change (UFC),
the Organization of a United Togo (OBUTS),and SURSAUT-Togo,
disintegrated in less than a week. However, on February 17, with
great fanfare, a new alliance was announced under the slightly
different name of Front Republicain pour l'Alternance et le
Changement (FRAC). The FRAC is an alliance between the UFC,
SURSAUT-Togo, and three small parties which do not have candidates
in the race. Its primary purpose is to support the UFC candidate,
Jean Pierre Fabre. None of the larger opposition parties have
joined the FRAC; the five other opposition candidates are fully
engaged in their own campaigns. Patrick Lawson, first
Vice-President of the UFC, has been named Fabre's campaign manager
and Kofi Yamgnane (SURSAUT-Togo) serves as FRAC's spokesman.
Following the announcement of the FRAC, Fabre's campaign kicked off
on Friday, February 19, despite the lack of endorsement from UFC
president and original candidate, Gilchrist Olympio.


2. By forming this alliance, Fabre seeks to portray himself as the
unique candidate for the opposition. Although, the UFC is still
firmly convinced that its candidate will prevail in any election
that is free and fair, FRAC provides a broader support base as the
member parties have followers in regions where the UFC is weak. In
addition, given Gilchrist Olympio's initial lack of endorsement for
Fabre's candidacy and some members of UFC refusing to support Fabre
without Olympio's explicit approval, FRAC provided another banner
that Fabre could wave. FRAC's declared objective is to work
together, campaign together, organize together, and govern together.
According to its founders, FRAC welcomes people of all walks of
life to "take a part in the liberation of Togo" and fight against
corruption, violence, and impunity. They message of working
together is not unique to the FRAC, it is being used in several
campaigns, most notably the Faure campaign.

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Gilchrist Olympio Endorses Fabre's Candidacy
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3. After weeks of silence, on Sunday, February 21, Gilchrist
Olympio issued a statement endorsing Jean Pierre Fabre as UFC's
presidential candidate. Declaring that a UFC victory would signify
a victory of all the democratic forces of Togo, Olympio called on
members of the UFC to support Fabre. Olympio noted that Fabre is
committed to the same goals as the UFC: the promotion of public
health measures, improvement in the infrastructure and security of
the country, and a reduction of poverty for the Togolese people. As
the president of the UFC and historical leader of the opposition,
Olympio's endorsement was crucial to Fabre's legitimacy as the
candidate of the UFC, by far the largest opposition party. Whether
all members of the UFC will fall solidly in-line behind Fabre
remains to be seen; the past few weeks have revealed major fissures
in the UFC with some members publicly expressing their opposition to
Fabre. In addition, the future of the FRAC is in question; if Fabre
no longer sees the need for the alliance now that he has Olympio's
endorsement, the new FRAC may have as short a life span as the
first.
HAWKINS