WESTERN BALKANS MAJOR THEME OF CODEL VOINOVICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LJUBLJANA 000041

CODEL
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS QUANRUD AND DAS JONES, EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2020
TAGS: PREL MARR OREP KSPR ZL SI
SUBJECT: WESTERN BALKANS MAJOR THEME OF CODEL VOINOVICH
VISIT TO SLOVENIA

REF: LJUBLJANA 0036

Classified By: CDA Brad Freden reasons 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY

1.(C) The Western Balkans dominated discussions in Ljubljana
on February 14 between Senators Voinovich (R-OH) and Shaheen
(D-NH) and Slovenian leaders, including President Turk, Prime
Minister Pahor, Foreign Minister Zbogar and Defense Minister
Jelusic. The Senators thanked Slovenia for its leadership in
the Western Balkans and called on the Government to continue
its efforts to support entry of the former Yugoslav republics
and Albania into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Slovenia's
leadership was unanimous in stressing the need for the EU to
provide visa liberalization for Bosnia prior to the July
anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre, and for Sarajevo to
join NATO's Membership Action Plan at the April ministerial.
Slovenia plans to work with the Bosnians to identify reform
"deliverables" prior to the NATO ministerial and the kick-off
of the BiH presidential campaign. FM Zbogar highlighted the
division of military property and a "joint declaration on a
common future" as examples of possible concrete steps BiH
could take now to show that it is serious about addressing
constitutional reform after the elections.

2.(C) Zbogar expects Croatia to conclude its EU accession
negotiations by the end of the year. All were confident that
Slovenia's Parliament would ratify the border arbitration
agreement, and that Ljubljana's relations with Zagreb would
continue their upward trend. Senator Voinovich called
opposition leader and former PM Janez Jansa to urge him not
to actively oppose the arbitration agreement. On Kosovo, the
Slovenes would like to see any further drawdown of KFOR
carefully calibrated to the political situation on the
ground. Slovenia remains committed to Kosovo's security and
will provide additional flexibility to its forces in KFOR as
they expand their area of responsibility in the country.
Slovenia has good cooperation with Serbia in many areas
including defense reform. Voinovich seemed to share PM
Pahor's sentiment that "if Croatia joins the EU and Serbia is
left behind, all hell will break lose." Turning away from
the region, the Senators emphasized the importance of NATO,s
mission in Afghanistan and thanked the Slovenes for their
contributions in support of ISAF. In a private conversation
with FM Zbogar, Voinovich said he hoped Slovenia would find a
way to accept detainees from Guantanamo. When asked about
the absence of an ambassador, the Senators said that they
expected a U.S. ambassador would be on the ground in
Ljubljana soon, and Shaheen promised to give priority to the
confirmation process. END SUMMARY.

BOSNIA: MAP AND VISA LIBERALIZATION

3.(C) The current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)
was the main topic of conversation during the CODEL's
meetings with the GOS. BiH is one of Slovenia's main foreign
policy priorities. Minister of Defense Jelusic stressed the
importance of having the international community acknowledge
reforms undertaken by the BiH government and its armed
forces. Jelusic explained that it was important for BiH to
know that the United States was on its side, as the Bosnians
trusted the United States more than the EU.

4.(C) Foreign Minister Zbogar warned that frustration was
growing as the Bosniaks were increasingly feeling that the
international community (IC) was leaving them behind. As a
result, he explained the EU needs to maintain momentum on
visa liberalization for the region. FM Zbogar noted that the
EU took a very positive step by offering visa liberalization
to Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro. BiH lost out in this
process, and so Zbogar highlighted the urgent need for the EU
to offer visa liberalization to the Bosnians prior to the
July Srebrenica anniversary. Defense Minister Jelusic also
explained the importance of offering MAP to BiH as soon as
possible; not only would MAP offer a sign of support from the
IC for what BiH has done on defense reforms, but it would
also send a signal that Serbia needs to undertake similar
reforms. Jelusic cautioned that if momentum was lost in BiH,
Serbia could lose its Western orientation.

SERBIA: NEED TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM

5.(C) The Slovenes would like to see the EU move quickly on
Serbia's EU membership application. Pahor put it most
bluntly: "If Croatia joins and Serbia is left behind, all
hell will break lose." According to FM Zbogar, the GOS is

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concerned that momentum might be lost for Serbia's further
integration into Euro-Atlantic structures if a new government
was to come to power in Belgrade. Zbogar called the current
government "forward looking," but noted that it was
questionable how much longer they could hold on to power.
Serbia's EU membership could offer his government a real
deliverable that would help maintain the country's Western
orientation. Defense Minister Jelusic told the CODEL that
Slovenia has good cooperation with Serbia in many areas
including on defense.

CROATIA: A NEW POSITIVE MOOD

6.(C) From the President on down, the Slovene leadership
assessed that bilateral relations with Croatia have greatly
improved since both governments agreed to send the
long-standing border dispute to arbitration. Turk praised
President Josipovic and especially Prime Minister Kosor for
her leadership. Foreign Minister Zbogar told the Senators
that he was confident Slovenia,s Parliament would ratify the
Arbitration Agreement and that a referendum on the issue
would pass. Zbogar explained that recent polls indicated
that more than 60% of the public supports the arbitration
agreement and that this number was growing. Most Slovenes
are simply happy that the two countries "are moving on" with
their bilateral relationship, according to the FM. Zbogar
noted that there was no immediate rush for Slovenia's
Parliament to ratify the accord, as the arbitration tribunal
would not start its work until after Croatia signed its EU
accession agreement. Slovenia's Constitutional Court is
expected to complete its review by mid March, Zbogar said,
adding that there was little doubt the Court would find the
agreement constitutional. Zbogar told the CODEL that he
expects Croatia to conclude its accession negotiations by the
end of the year. PM Pahor thanked the U.S. "for helping us
reach agreement with Croatia." Voinovich had a 10-minute
telephone conversation with former PM Jansa, an "old friend"
of the Senator and the leading opponent of the arbitration
agreement. Despite the friendly tone of the conversation,
Voinovich left no doubt that the U.S. saw this agreement as
being in the best interests of Slovenia, Croatia and the
larger region.

KOSOVO: SLOVENIA COMMITTED TO SECURITY

7.(C) Senator Voinovich asked about troop reductions in
Kosovo. Defense Minister Jelusic said that it was very
important for the international community to coordinate troop
reductions in Kosovo with what was happening on the political
scene, warning that there are sources of conflict that
remain. Slovenia currently has 370 troops in KFOR; these
soldiers will be replaced by a fresh contingent of 350 that
will become more flexible and take responsibility for a
broader region of the country. Jelusic noted that Slovenian
troops could provide security for monasteries and Serbian
enclaves in the north. In response to a question from
Senator Voinovich, Jelusic said that the international
community must have contingency plans for dealing with the
upcoming ICJ decision on Kosovo's independence. In the
meantime, the defense minister stressed the importance of
having Kosovars take local ownership of the justice system,
police forces and Kosovo Security Force (KSF) . Kosovo needs
to recruit troops from all nationalities, as well as improve
the professionalism of its forces. Jelusic suggested that
the Slovene Armed Forces (SAF) could provide a good model to
the Kosovars, particularly in the area of its expertise in
natural disaster response.

MACEDONIA

8.(C) FM Zbogar lamented that progress has been at a
standstill for Macedonia due to its name dispute with Greece.
In December 2009, the EU Council of Ministers postponed
granting Macedonia a start date for its accession
negotiations until mid-2010. As a result, according to
Zbogar, Slovenia believes it is important to find a solution
to the name issue before June. Zbogar warned that if a
solution was not found within this timeframe, Macedonia's
situation would become more complicated especially with
regard to its Albanian population. PM Pahor recently
traveled to Skopje to encourage the Macedonians to find a
compromise solution. While the IC needs to be cognizant of
Macedonian sensitivities, Zbogar told the CODEL that it was
important that the Macedonians also avoid additional actions
that could further provoke the Greeks.

BRDO SUMMIT

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9. (C) Pahor sketched an ambitious agenda for the March 20
"Brdo Summit" co-sponsored by Slovenia and Croatia, to
include progress on three issues: reform in Bosnia,
reconciliation between Serbia and Kosovo and the Macedonian
name issue. Pahor expects leaders of all the former Yugoslav
republics and Albania to attend, as well as Spanish President
Zapatero and EU High Rep Catherine Ashton, among others. The
U.S. has been invited as an observer. Voinovich bluntly
warned Pahor that his government "will have to do a lot of
homework to make sure it doesn't blow up." Pahor grimaced
and backpedaled slightly, noting that the purpose of the
summit was really "to keep European attention on the Balkans"
and develop initiatives within the region to deal with
practical matters such as trade and energy security.

NATO AND DEFENSE ISSUES

10.(C) Defense Minister Jelusic conveyed to the Senators her
appreciation for the United States' support of Slovenia's
NATO membership, its military reforms and deployments in the
Western Balkans and Afghanistan. Regarding Slovenia's
contributions to the ISAF mission in Afghanistan, Jelusic
told the CODEL that the GOS needs to further develop its
public relations strategy as the public and press debate
Slovenia's mission there. The Defense Minister noted that
there was a large perception gap between what Slovenia was
doing in Herat and what the public read about Afghanistan in
the newspapers. Jelusic conveyed her appreciation for
Embassy Ljubljana's assistance in this area, calling the
support "incredibly important." She noted that PD support
from the Embassy and training support from the Colorado
National Guard (CONG) were key to the successful October 2010
deployment of Slovenia's Operational Mentoring and Liaison
Team (OMLT) in Herat Province. Voinovich also used a
pull-aside with Zbogar to ask for Slovenian assistance in
closing Guantanamo, to which Zbogar replied that the
government was actively seeking a way under Slovenian law to
accept one or more detainees.

MANAGEMENT ISSUES


11. (SBU) At an informal Country Team dinner, Embassy staff
thanked Senator Voinovich for his personal engagement in
support of overseas comparability pay and both Senators for
their support of the State Department generally. Voinovich
asked Country Team members for their views on human resources
policy, specifically regarding the coming surge of new hires.
CDA mentioned the presentation by Deputy Secretary Lew at
the EUR Chief of Missions Conference in January, in which the
Deputy Secretary outlined how the QDDR would address
recruitment and training. Voinovich also asked about Civil
Service excursion tours in light of the difficulty filling
some overseas positions, making it clear that he felt the
process for excursion tours should be streamlined.

COMMENT

12.(C) Senator Voinovich acknowledged that he was grooming
Senator Shaheen, the chair of the European subcommittee of
the SFRC, to take the mantle of the Senate's "Balkan expert"
when he retires next year. Both Senators were engaged and in
good spirits. They seemed generally pleased with U.S. policy
and Slovenia's role in the region. Planning for the ICJ
ruling was a recurring theme for Voinovich, as was the need
to support Tadic. Voinovich departed Slovenia with some
apparent doubts about the Administration's policy on MAP for
Bosnia, though these concerns may have been assuaged when he
got to Sarajevo. They -- and we -- felt that Pahor's
ambitions for the Brdo Summit may exceed his/Slovenia's
capacity, but the mere fact that Slovenia and Croatia were
co-sponsoring the event was a good sign and should be
supported. Voinovich said he would speak with "Jones" upon
his return to Washington, but did not indicate whether he was
referring to General or Stu. End comment.

13.(U) CODEL Voinovich did not have the opportunity to review
this message.
FREDEN