PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: RHETORIC HEATS UP; RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM UP
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: RHETORIC HEATS UP; RACE
YANUKOVYCH'S TO LOSE

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) PM Tymoshenko, trailing Party of Regions leader
Yanukovych in advance of the January 17 Presidential
election, used a three-hour press event January 14 to hammer
the message that Yanukovych is a criminal and front man for
rapacious oligarchic interests, whose election would be a
humiliation for Ukraine. She called Yanukovych a coward for
refusing to debate her. Yanukovych responded by declaring
Tymoshenko a "champion liar." President Yushchenko's daily
barrages against Tymoshenko may suppress "Orange" turnout in
round two. Yushchenko has revived allegations against
Tymoshenko of corruption as a gas executive in the 1990s and
accused her of being in league with Putin. Businessman
Sergey Tigipko appears to have surged into third place,
reflecting the "against all" sentiments of many voters.
Unlike 2004, Russian influence has been muted. There are
3149 registered foreign election observers. The Central
Election Commission (CEC) denied registration to over 2000
Georgian observers, apparently at the instigation of the
Party of Regions. A judge has ordered the CEC to reconsider
the applications. End Summary.

Snapshot
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2. (C) Ukraine's presidential election law does not allow
publication of polls for fifteen days before the election.
The consensus view among experts is that Yanukovych is ten
points, perhaps more, ahead of Tymoshenko. Yanukovych
political consultant Paul Manafort confirmed to us January 15
that his client has not lost his double digit lead. A
Tymoshenko campaign consultant told us much the same January

14. Businessman and former Central Bank Governor and 2004
Yanukovych campaign chairman Sergey Tigipko has, most
analysts believe, moved into third place. Allegations that
opponents will commit fraud, and the threat of court
challenges to results, are rife on all sides. Round two of
the Presidential election will take place on February 7 if,
as expected, no one among the 18 candidates gets fifty
percent in round one.

Tymoshenko Rips into Yanukovych
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3. (SBU) Tymoshenko convoked national and international media
and the diplomatic corps to a large auditorium outside
central Kyiv January 14 for a highly orchestrated "press
conference" to close out her campaign. It included video
bridges to a number of locations through Ukraine, with
Tymoshenko supporters asking set-up questions. Speaking
(while standing on very high heels) for three and a half
hours, Tymoshenko, in fighting spirit and largely without
notes, emphasized the following:

-- Yanukovych is the front man for rapacious oligarchic
interests. These oligarchs see Ukraine as their own personal
property and want a President who will accede to their wishes
and cut them preferential deals. She pledged to "put
oligarchs in their place" and rule in the national interest.
She touted instances of how she had subverted the oligarchs,
such as by removing RosUkrEnergo as intermediary on gas
purchases from Russia and in reversing plans for oligarch-led
development of energy reserves off the Black Sea coast. The
oligarchs want to restrict competition and hold back
Ukraine's development. They control media outlets and bribe
state officials to maintain their power. This, she stressed,
is a major threat to Ukraine's democratic evolution.

--Yanukovych's criminal past make him unsuitable to serve as
President. His election would damage Ukraine's image. His
picture in schools and government offices would be absurd
given his criminal convictions and support for corrupt
oligarchs.

--Yanukovych, like the oligarchs he represents, is a thief.
He stole state property by acquiring, while Prime Minister, a
huge estate "the size of Monaco" for next to nothing.

--Yanukovych is a coward for refusing to debate her.
Ukraine needs a "brave President" to handle the challenges it
faces. Either Yanukovych does not have the intellectual
capacity to debate her or is afraid to do so because he has
things to hide -- or both. TV talk show hosts should invite
her when they interview him to allow the public to see them
compete.

--She is open to joining forces with Tigipko and candidates

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Yatsenyuk and Hritsenko after the first round.

--Yushchenko is in league with Yanukovych. Yushchenko seeks
to get Orange voters to stay home in round two. She refuses
to reply to his constant barrages.

--She ended with an emotional appeal to Orange Voters not to
stay at home out of disappointment over unfulfilled promises
since 2005, but to "join with me" to live up to the goals of
the Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko said she has been de
facto in opposition even as PM because of Yushchenko's
undermining and Regions' hold over the East and South. She
called Sunday's election a choice between democracy and
criminal oligarchy. Ukraine is "on the edge."

Yanukovych Coasting to Finish
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4. (C) Making final rounds on TV January 14, Yanukovych
termed Tymoshenko a "champion liar" and said he would not
participate in a media circus with her. He expressed
concern that Tymoshenko would not accept defeat and would
seek to use the courts to hold as many rounds of elections as
it takes for her to get elected. Manafort told us that
Tymoshenko knows she is losing and is now moving to discredit
the election process as the only means of stopping
Yanukovych.


5. (SBU) Regions contacts make it clear to us that the Party
is preparing for court challenges from Tymoshenko. The
party has also sought to subvert pro-Tymoshenko street
protests by preemptively reserving many of Kyiv's main
squares from now until after the second round. Yanukovych
will hold a final rally on January 15 at St. Sofia square in
central Kyiv.

Election Observers
--------------


6. (U) The Central Election Commission (CEC) released the
final number of registered observers on January 12. Under
the current presidential election law, observers can be
registered as representatives of a foreign state or of an
international organization. The proposed amendment to the
law that would have allowed Ukrainian citizens to register as
domestic observers was not passed by the Rada. Therefore
Ukrainian observers, as they have in past presidential
elections, have registered as journalists. The following
were registered as international observers from foreign
states:

Kyrgistan 1
Hungary 8
Germany 11
Russia 39
Japan 4
U.S.A. 73
Czech Republic 7
Estonia 4
Belarus 3
Norway 3
France 3
Kazakhstan 1
Lithuania 2
Canada 1
Poland 96
Denmark 20

TOTAL 276


7. (SBU) 2011 Georgian nationals applied for international
observer accreditation, but when the CEC voted to consider
the applications, only 7 of the 15 members voted to consider
the applications. Thus all of the applications were refused
by the CEC, which stated that many were filled out
incorrectly and there was insufficient time to get these
corrected and consider all of them together as a whole. The
Georgians appealed this decision to the Kyiv Administrative
Court of Appeals, which ruled that the CEC's inaction to
consider these actions was illegal and ordering the CEC to
consider the applications at its next meeting. CEC Secretary
Tetyana Lukash told the press that the CEC is appealing the
Court's ruling. The Georgian Ambassador told us it is now
too late to get observers here for the first round, but still
held out hope for the second round.


8. (U) The following were registered as international
observers from international organizations:

OSCE 614
CIS Parliamentary Assembly (PA) 77

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"For Fair Elections" NGO 402
Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA) 104
CIS Election Monitoring Organization 259
European Network of Election
Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO) 603
International Republican Institute (IRI) 41
International Union of Komsomol
Organizations (VLKSM) 162
National Democratic Institute (NDI) 15
GUAM 3
World Congress of Ukrainians 21
OSCE PA 138
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe (PACE) 48
Canadian-Ukrainian Foundation 102
NATO PA 32
European Parliament 20
CANADEM 232

TOTAL OF BOTH 3149
registered international observers.


9. (U) Of this total, 60 OSCE observers are long-term
observers (LTOs). NDI has also sponsored 76 LTOs, in
addition to 1000 short-term observers (STOs) per round,
through a local Ukrainian NGO "OPORA." These Ukrainian
observers registered as journalists and are not reflected in
the numbers above. Of ENEMO's observers, 50 are LTOs.


10. (U) Embassy Kyiv will send out 17 teams of observers in
Round one. Five will deploy in the Kyiv area and twelve
will target cities and surrounding areas throughout Ukraine.
We will follow this format for round two as well.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) While Ukraine's East-West electoral divide remains
pronounced, the intensity of that division is less than
during the 2004 campaign. The perceived difference between
Tymoshenko and Yanukovych does not compare to the polarized
perception of the Yanukovych-Yushchenko match-up in 2004.
Sergey Tigipko's surge stems from his ability to tap into the
"none of the above" sentiment. The influence of Russia and
the issues of NATO membership and Russian language are also
less pronounced than in 2004. The desire for a better
response to the economic crisis, disenchantment with Orange
leaders' infighting, and appeals to "stability" have been
core themes for Yanukovych -- and they are resonating. It
is no small feat for a sitting PM to overcome the burden of a
fifteen percent drop in GDP over the past year, and
Tymoshenko has not done so. She is now running in large
measure as the anti-Yanukovych candidate. Her depiction of
Yanukovych as a criminal thug, tool of oligarchs, and
embarrassment for Ukraine's image will only intensify in the
run up to the second round -- assuming (as most observers do)
that Tigipko does not shake everything up and upset her for
second place.
TEFFT