FOR TYMOSHENKO, "BETTER TO BE A VICTIM THAN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000235

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: FOR TYMOSHENKO, "BETTER TO BE A VICTIM THAN A
LOSER"

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Nearly a week has passed since the February 7
presidential runoff, and PM Yuliya Tymoshenko has been
uncharacteristically absent from the airwaves, refusing to
appear in public or release a public statement under her own
hand. Officials from her campaign, however, have made
numerous accusations of electoral malfeasance by Party of
Regions (Regions) and have vowed to fight the returns in
court. MPs close to Tymoshenko admit that these court
challenges have little merit and that Tymoshenko "lost the
election." However, they tell us that a new parliamentary
coalition for Regions that would enable President-elect
Yanukovych to dissolve the Tymoshenko government is "far from
a done deal." A Regions MP confirms to us that negotiations
with members of Tymoshenko's coalition to defect are ongoing
and mired by often mutually exclusive demands from the
individual MPs. Insiders believe, however, that Tymoshenko
will break her silence after the Central Election Commission
certifies the results to announce her plans to become
opposition leader. End summary.


TYMOSHENKO'S COURT CHALLENGE WITHOUT MERIT
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2. (C) Our Ukraine - People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) MP Roman
Zvarych told us on February 12 that he has been in direct
contact with PM Tymoshenko and was tasked by her to both
fight to a) preserve the existing parliamentary coalition
between OU-PSD, the Lytvyn Bloc and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko
(BYuT); and b) create an opposition plan should this first
task prove impossible. Under no circumstances would
Tymoshenko resign the PM's position, he stated. He described
her current state as "defeated, unwell, and exhausted," and
told us that there had been serious concerns about her health
during the last weeks of campaigning. "She told me we lost,"
Zvarych said, "but I reminded her that only five people in
Ukraine's history have gotten more than 45% of the vote in a
presidential election, and she is one of them. This gives us
room to fight." Zvarych conceded that Tymoshenko had lost
the election, and that he had advised her that appealing
local court cases to the High Administrative Court would be
futile. "We have no legal basis to have the election results
thrown out. I hope she realizes that, but who knows what
Yuliya will decide?"


3. (C) OSCE/ODIHR's legal analyst explained to us on February
12 that the observation mission did not believe there was any
merit to Tymoshenko's claims of widespread election fraud.
He described the few specific allegations that the PM's team
has provided to ODIHR as "nickel-and-dime stuff" that, even
if proven valid, would have no effect on the election
outcome. ODIHR is concerned that Tymoshenko's team continues
to publicly claim massive falsification, but ignores ODIHR's
repeated requests for information to back up their
allegations. Fraud on the scale that Tymoshenko is claiming,
according to the legal analyst, would require an "enormous
conspiracy" at multiple levels of the election system and
would be visible to all serious election observation
organizations. He chalked up the PM's repeated claims that
the election was stolen to a Ukrainian proverb that says it
is "better to be a victim than a loser."

NEW PARLIAMENTARY COALITION "NOT A DONE DEAL"
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4. (C) Zvarych also argued that the new Party of Regions
(Regions) coalition is far from being a "done deal."
According to him, the Lytvyn Bloc is waiting for a decision
from the members of the OU-PSD faction, whose votes (at least
37) are needed to dissolve the existing coalition with Lytvyn
and Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT),before the Lytvyn Bloc
will agree to join a new coalition with Regions. According
to Zvarych, there are not at this point 37 OU-PSD members who
are ready to make this move.


5. (C) There are many factors at play in the decision to
enter a new coalition, Zvarych continued. For Lytvyn, who
received an abysmal 2.35% of the vote in the January 17 first
round, it is the fear of pre-term parliamentary elections
(where it is predicted that his bloc would lose most of its
seats) that motivates his decision to stay in the existing
coalition with BYuT and OU-PSD, or to support the formation
of a new coalition with Regions. "Regions obviously does not
have the 37 members of OU-PSD that it needs to vote the
Tymoshenko government out of power," he added, "or they would
have already started the process to do so. We are calling

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their bluff and will continue to fight for the existing
coalition."


6. (C) What will happen within the OU-PSD faction, which is
currently comprised of several disparate parties with
competing interests, is not clear. Party of Regions Deputy
Faction Leader Volodymyr Makeyenko told us that the groups
within OU-PSD are fracturing and that the MPs want to
negotiate with Regions separately. He said that now OU-PSD
"has 72 faction leaders." Makeyenko explained that they are
working with as many MPs as possible, but the many competing
interests within OU-PSD are often cross-cutting and MP
demands are often mutually exclusive. He said that differing
groups within OU-PSD have variously demanded the Prime
Ministership for President Yushchenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk,
Serhiy Tihipko, or former PM Yuriy Yekhanurov as the price
for their backing for a new coalition. Makeyenko said that
coalition negotiations are still ongoing, but that he is
confident they will ultimately be successful, because OU-PSD
MPs will eventually understand that a coalition is better
than losing their seats -- a fate awaiting most of them in a
new election.


7. (C) Zvarych told us that he and the MPs with whom he is
aligned will most certainly stick by Tymoshenko and are
preparing to create a formidable opposition. There are two
scenarios under which this could happen: The first would be
to maintain the existing coalition and deprive Regions of a
no-confidence vote against the Tymoshenko government.
Tymoshenko would thus remain PM. The second scenario, which
would take place if a new coalition is formed and
Tymoshenko's government is dissolved, would be to "make so
much hell" for Yanukovych that he has no choice but to agree
to pre-term parliamentary elections at a time that would be
convenient for those in the opposition.

DEPUTY JUSTICE MINISTER CONCURS
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8. (C) We also spoke February 12 with Deputy Justice Minister
Yevgen Korniychuk, a Tymoshenko loyalist. Korniychuk agreed
that Tymoshenko felt beleaguered. She regarded the
congratulatory calls from President Obama and other European
leaders as premature since the CEC has not yet certified
final results. Korniychuk admitted that Tymoshenko's legal
case was extremely weak. If the campaign cannot reveal
something more significant in the next day or two he will
advise Tymoshenko to ease back on court challenges, resign,
and lead the opposition. Korniychuk maintained that Regions
had bought substantial votes, but that BYuT would not be able
to prove it in court.


9. (C) Korniychuk acknowledged that Regions was engaged in an
intense effort to win over a majority of OU-PSD MPs to oust
Tymoshenko and form a new coalition. He predicted that, in
the end, they would probably succeed. Tymoshenko, he
contended, would never agree that Yanukovych had won.

COMMENT
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10. (C) We expect Tymoshenko to break her silence after the
Central Election Commission certifies the election result,
possibly as early as February 13. A victim line is probable:
she will say Yanukovych did not win, and has no moral right
to be President of Ukraine, whether or not she pushes the
court cases hard. Her fate as PM appears in the hands of the
inchoate OU-PSD faction -- and the ability of Regions to woo
them.
TEFFT