Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10KYIV199
2010-02-08 16:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

TYMOSHENKO DOES BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT FALLS

Tags:  PGOV PREL UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9096
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHKV #0199/01 0391648
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081648Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9288
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000199 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO DOES BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT FALLS
SHORT; NGOS DECLARE ELECTION FREE AND FAIR

REF: KYIV 192

KYIV 00000199 001.2 OF 003


Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000199

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO DOES BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT FALLS
SHORT; NGOS DECLARE ELECTION FREE AND FAIR

REF: KYIV 192

KYIV 00000199 001.2 OF 003


Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) PM Yuliya Tymoshenko exceeded expectations by
narrowing a ten percent post-first round gap with rival
Viktor Yanukovych to a surprisingly close 2.86 percent (with
98.8% of the vote counted) in the February 7 presidential
runoff. Higher than expected turnout in western Ukraine
accounted for much of Tymoshenko's surge. International and
domestic observers -- including ODIHR, IRI, OPORA, ENEMO and
the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly -- characterized the election
as essentially free and fair. None reported systematic fraud
that could have undermined the result. PM Tymoshenko has
neither conceded defeat nor announced whether she plans to
contest the result in court -- or convoke street protests.
Twice on February 8 Tymoshenko canceled press conferences;
she may announce her intentions February 9. Yanukovych's
team has asked her to concede and is seeking recognition for
Yanukovych as President elect. End Summary.

Tymoshenko Exceeds Expectations But Falls Short
-------------- --


2. (SBU) As of 1700 local February 8, with 98.8% of precincts
processed, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (CEC)
reported that Party of Regions (Regions) candidate Viktor
Yanukovych had received 48.65%, PM Yuliya Tymoshenko had
received 45.77%, and 4.38% of voters had voted "against all."
Voters cast over twenty five million ballots. The 2.88% gap
between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko surprised many political
experts, including those in the Yanukovych campaign.
Yanukovych advisors had expected a ten percent or more
margin. Turnout in western Ukraine was about ten percent
higher than they anticipated.

ODIHR and Parliamentary Assemblies: "Professional,
Transparent and Honest"
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) On the eve of election day, OSCE/ODIHR responded on
February 5 to PM Tymoshenko's concerns about the February 4
changes to the Presidential Election Law (reftel). In her
letter, ODIHR Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini conceded that "it
is not good practice to make last-minute amendments to the
election law shortly before election day, in particular not
between two rounds of an election." Tagliavini added,
however, that ODIHR did not conclude from its analysis of the
amendments that their adoption undermined the electoral

process in Ukraine. ODIHR emphasized that the changes to the
law would not take effect if all members of the Precinct
Election Commissions (PECs) and District Election Commissions
(DECs) showed up for work. Tagliavini's response placed the
integrity of the elections firmly in the hands of the two
candidates and their supporters, and reiterated ODIHR's view
that Ukraine's amended Presidential Election Law could
provide the basis for an orderly and democratic election,
something, she added, that Ukraine wanted and needed.


4. (U) In a joint statement on February 8, representatives of
ODIHR, the European Parliament, and the Parliamentary
Assemblies of the Council of Europe, NATO, and the OSCE
stated that most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments were
met during the second round of elections. They characterized
the voting as "professional, transparent and honest" and "a
solid foundation for a peaceful transition of power."
President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and Special
Coordinator of the OSCE short-term observers, Joao Soares,
described the elections as "an impressive display of
democratic elections" and a victory for everyone in Ukraine.

OPORA: "No Systematic Violations"
--------------


5. (SBU) Local NGO OPORA, which had 1003 short-term observers
(STOs) stationed throughout Ukraine, said in its press
statement on February 8 that it had not recorded "any
systematic violations of the election legislation" that would
have had a significant impact on the voting results. OPORA
anticipates that both candidates will challenge the results
of specific precincts in court, but added that there did not
appear to be a legitimate legal basis for doing so. OPORA
representatives also observed that many of the procedural
problems and organizational confusion experienced during the
January 17 first round were not present during the second
round.


6. (SBU) OPORA also found that the February 4 changes to the
Presidential election law had "no impact" on the outcome, but

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rather "apparently mobilized commissioners from both
candidates to participate in PECs and DECs." While during
the January 17 first round of voting, OPORA documented 12% of
polling stations that did not have a quorum in the morning in
order to open for voting, OPORA documented only 2.8% of such
precincts during the February 7 second round. OPORA also
performed a Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) on election night
and recorded a gap of 3.7% between Yanukovych (who according
to the PVT received 49.6%) and Tymoshenko (45.9%),with a
2.6% margin of error.

ENEMO: "Superior to the First Round"
--------------


7. (SBU) The European Network of Election Monitoring
Organizations (ENEMO),which fielded about 450 observers,
characterized the February 7 second round as proceeding
"without any reports of systematic fraud," and as being
"generally viewed as superior to the first round." It noted,
however, that procedural and organizational problems
pinpointed during the first round "continued hampering the
work of many commissions, leading to unequal enforcement of
the law across oblasts."

IRI: "Generally In Accordance with International Standards"
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) In its February 8 statement the International
Republican Institute (IRI) monitoring team, lead by former
Assistant Secretary David Kramer, described the election as
mostly open and transparent and "generally in accordance with
international standards." IRI commented on the "unfortunate
controversy" caused by the last-minute changes to the
Presidential Election Law, but emphasized that these changes
had "no appreciable effect on the results of the February 7
voting."

European Parliament: "No Widespread Violations"
-------------- ---


9. (SBU) Head of the European Parliament monitoring
delegation Pavel Koval stated on February 8 that based on
reports from its STOs, PACE feels confident that "no
large-scale violations" occurred during the February 7 second
round of voting that would have a significant impact on the
results of the election. PACE officials continued to collect
information from their STO teams in the field. Koval also
commented, in apparent reference to PM Tymoshenko, that
"adherence to democratic standards means not just the fair
vote, but also the voluntary transfer of power in case of
defeat."

CVU: "While Complicated, No Systemic Fraud"
--------------


10. (SBU) The NGO "Committee of Voters of Ukraine" (CVU)
criticized the behavior of the candidates and characterized
the mood of the second round as more conflictual and tense
than the first round of elections. Despite this, however,
CVU stated that it did not find massive or systemic fraud
that could have impacted the results of the elections or
distorted the will of the citizens.

CIS Countries: "Meets Democratic Standards"
--------------


11. (SBU) The CIS Parliamentary Assembly and the CIS Election
Monitoring Organizations (CIS EMO) released statements that
the election met democratic standards and proceeded without
K5hQzQ8\-Qampaign manager) Turchynov has alleged irregularities in
Donetsk. He also declared that a internal count from the
party's observers, with over 80 percent of the vote
represented, indicated a 46-46 percent tie. Yanukovych's
team has called on Tymoshenko to concede and has said there
will be no witch hunt against the opposing side. They are
seeking recognition of Yanukovych as President elect.

Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) With domestic and international observers declaring

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the election essentially free and fair, Tymoshenko and
advisers are weighing her options. While a fighter by
nature, she is down about 735,000 votes with the tally nearly
final. While the conduct of the voting appears to have been
up to international standards, how the loser exits -- by
concession or via a drawn out struggle -- will speak volumes
about the state of Ukraine's democracy.
TEFFT