TERNOPIL: FEARS OF FRAUD NOT BORNE OUT IN FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000186

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP
SUBJECT: TERNOPIL: FEARS OF FRAUD NOT BORNE OUT IN FIRST
ROUND PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

REF: 09 KYIV 590

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During a recent visit to Ternopil Oblast in
west-central Ukraine, campaign officials, NGOs and
journalists told us that they were concerned about vote
buying in the oblast during the presidential elections. PM
Yuliya Tymoshenko and Party of Regions candidate Viktor
Yanukovych's campaign directors accused one another of
compiling lists and soliciting votes for sale from the
economically depressed villages of the oblast. The results
of the January 17 first-round presidential vote, however, did
not indicate significant fraud, with 72% of the oblast's vote
split among the top three "orange" candidates. Yanukovych
came in fourth with 9.82%. Experts caution, however, that
significant fraud would not occur until the second round,
"when it matters." The nationalist "Svoboda" (Freedom)
Party, which won a plurality (34%) of votes in a
controversial March 2009 local election, saw its candidate
get less than 5%. End summary.

Economically Depressed
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2. (U) Ternopil Oblast in west-central Ukraine is one of the
smallest in the country. The capital city has a population
of 215,000, and the oblast was once an agricultural center
and home to several large factories. Since the fall of the
Soviet Union, its agricultural production has declined in the
face of competition from imports, and the economic crisis has
caused many factories to cease production. Many people have
lost their jobs, and Ternopil's sizable student population
(it has four well-respected universities, including President
Yushchenko's alma mater) is also feeling the effects of the
economic downturn.

Too Cold to Care?
--------------


3. (C) Our trip to Ternopil occurred in December immediately
after the first significant snowstorm of the season, the
effects of which were visible in the small number of
political campaign tents that had sprouted en masse in most
other city-centers throughout Ukraine. PM Tymoshenko visited
the city the same day we did, and several buildings bore
signs that read "Tymoshenko -- our President!," while a few
others read "Tymoshenko -- NOT our President!" Her speech in
the square attracted a moderate-sized crowd (less than
expected) and also irritated many locals, whose normal travel
routes (ours included) were disrupted by the road closures.
She spent a few hours in the capital before proceeding to
outlying villages to pass out land certificates to local
residents, according to her local campaign deputy chairman,
Volodymyr Boyko.

Fraud on Everyone's Mind
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4. (C) Campaign officials representing the two front-runners
(Tymoshenko and Regions candidate Yanukovych) expressed their
concerns to us about the other's efforts to buy votes and
perpetrate fraud in the upcoming presidential elections.
Boyko told us about reports of Regions campaign officials
compiling lists of potential vote-sellers, and worried that
Regions would be contacting families to arrange such
transactions. In order to confirm that these votes are cast
as required, continued Boyko, voters are instructed to use a
certain color ink pen to make a certain mark on the ballot
(for example a circle or star instead of a check mark). The
theory goes that the candidate's representatives on Precinct
Election Commissions (PECs) will be able to tally these votes
as the ballots are counted.


5. (C) Regions campaign deputies emphasized their concerns
about fraud in the elections -- "no one wants to see an
election without fraud more than Viktor Yanukovych, having
had the 2004 election stolen from him." They spoke of
Yanukovych's increasing popularity in the oblast and their
view that Ternopil Oblast voters, once staunchly "orange,"
are fed up with the shenanigans of Tymoshenko and President
Yushchenko and will come over to Yanukovych.


6. (C) Local NGO OPORA's long-term observers relayed
information they had received about plans to buy votes during
the elections. Their focus was on Yanukovych, since
Tymoshenko was locally popular and had no need to buy votes
in the oblast. They added, though, that 40 - 50% of voters

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were still undecided and that in the second round many would
vote "against all."

Insignificant Fraud; Svoboda Drops
--------------


7. (C) The results from the January 17 first round in
Ternopil did not indicate significant fraud. PM Tymoshenko
received 35.67% of the vote, President Yushchenko received
26.43%, Arseniy Yatsenyuk came in third with 9.91% and
Yanukovych received 9.82%. Nationalist Oleh Tyahnybok of the
Svoboda Party came in a surprising distant fifth place with
just 4.89%. The Svoboda tally is in sharp contrast to the
34% the party won in March, when Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko
(BYuT) refused to campaign. These results track with the
scenario of an "orange" constituency that split among various
candidates, with a modest but growing "blue" vote captured by
Yanukovych.

Comment: On to the Second Round
--------------


8. (C) International observers agreed that the first round of
elections passed without major incident and witnessed more
problems with organization and procedural confusion than
malicious fraud. They tell us privately, though, that they
are still concerned about fraud, particularly in the form of
vote buying, during the February 7 second round because
"that's the one that counts." The poor showing by the
nationalist "Svoboda" party candidate indicated that, despite
difficult economic times, its agenda is still only marginally
appealing to voters.
TEFFT