UKRAINE: CANDIDATES VIE FOR VOTERS AS THE RUNOFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000104

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: CANDIDATES VIE FOR VOTERS AS THE RUNOFF
CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF

REF: KYIV 92

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The two candidates who will compete in the February
7 runoff for the presidency, Party of Regions (Regions)
candidate Viktor Yanukovych and PM Yuliya Tymoshenko,
kicked-off their campaigns as expected, appealing to the
voters who supported second-tier candidates during the first
round. Both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko hope to attract the
votes of Serhiy Tihipko's supporters, who represent 13% of
the first-round vote. Tihipko publicly stated that he will
not support either runoff candidate and refused PM
Tymoshenko's offer of the prime minister's post should she
become president. Yanukovych referred to Tihipko voters as
"like-minded people." Front of Change candidate Arseniy
Yatsenyuk vowed to become the leader of the opposition to the
next government, while President Yushchenko argued it was his
moral obligation to remain in politics since both candidates
would damage Ukraine's democracy and independence. End
summary.

TYMOSHENKO: "FORGIVES ALL"
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2. (C) In a January 18 statement, PM Yuliya Tymoshenko told
voters that she is ready "to forgive the sharp statements,
confrontations and sometimes difficult competition from
candidates representing democratic forces." Tymoshenko's
campaign rhetoric is trying to draw a stark distinction
between her as the candidate of democracy, and opponent
Viktor Yanukovych (Regions) as "a criminal" who would weaken
Ukraine's democracy and independence. Tymoshenko offered the
prime ministership to third-place contender Serhiy Tihipko,
who refused. Interestingly, she thereupon pledged that her
offer would still stand after she wins the second round on
February 7 -- a clear bid to attract Tihipko's voters
regardless of Tihipko's personal attitude. In case the
message was not already clear, Tymoshenko told Tihipko's
voters, who represent 13% of the electorate in the first
round, that she is their logical choice since 90% of her
platform already corresponds with Tihipko's. Tihipko
confirmed Tymoshenko's offer but added that his answer was a
definitive no, stating he was not prepared to support either
candidate during the second round. In his post-election
statement, Tihipko said that he wanted the country to be
"shaken up" by subsequent early parliamentary elections,
since neither Tymoshenko or Yanukovych would provide the
change that is needed. He also told the media that he was
considering a run for the Kyiv mayorship. (The Ambassador
met with Tihipko January 21; cable to follow septel.)

YANUKOVYCH: TIHIPKO VOTERS "LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE"
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3. (U) Not surprisingly, presidential front-runner Viktor
Yanukovych also appealed to Tihipko supporters at a campaign
rally in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on January 21.
He told the crowd that he would not ask any second-tier
candidates for a formal endorsement in the runoff election,
since it could put them in an "awkward position" with their
constituents. He emphasized, however, that he is
communicating with these candidates to let them know that
there is a place for them in a Yanukovych presidency.
Yanukovych said he would appeal directly to the voters
themselves and that third-place finisher Serhiy Tihipko's
voters were "like-minded people" who would largely vote for
him in the second round. Tihipko, in a press conference,
confirmed that he had met with Yanukovych following the
first-round election, but said it would be inappropriate to
divulge the specifics of the discussion.


YATSENYUK: THE "REAL" OPPOSITION
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4. (U) During a January 20 interview with Channel 5, Arseniy
Yatsenyuk confirmed he had met with Yanukovych and told him
that he would not support him in the second round. Yatsenyuk
claimed that during this conversation he also warned
Yanukovych that he, Yatsenyuk, would lead the future
opposition, adding that Yanukovych would come to miss
Tymoshenko's opposition once he got a taste of it
Yatsenyuk-style. During the interview, Yatsenyuk also said
he was going to meet with PM Tymoshenko and would convey the
same message to her. He also argued that it would be
inappropriate for Tymoshenko to offer him any posts in her
government in exchange for his support since "it was her

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campaign that most actively discredited" him as a
presidential candidate.

YUSHCHENKO: A POX ON BOTH THEIR HOUSES
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5. (U) In a January 20 statement, President Yushchenko stated
that it would be "morally wrong" for him to leave politics,
adding that "I met my democratic commitments in the position
of President of Ukraine." He said that national and state
obligations do not give him the moral right to leave
politics, and argued that national, European and democratic
values are "strange, incomprehensible and very remote" to
both candidates in the second round. To him, he said, there
is no significant difference between the two.

NEW CEC MEMBER NEEDED; COMMISSION OPEN TO GEORGIAN OBSERVERS
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6. (U) On January 19, the Rada voted to remove Anatoliy
Pysarenko from the Central Election Commission (CEC) because
he had exceeded the mandatory retirement age of 65. His
removal was backed by Party of Regions, Lytvyn Bloc, the
Communist Party, and the pro-presidential wing of Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense. The Tymoshenko Bloc opposed
Pysarenko's removal. President Yushchenko promised prior to
the vote on Pysarenko's removal to nominate a replacement
that same day, but has so far failed to do so. Rada Speaker
Lytvyn threatened to take the issue to the courts if
Yushchenko does not announce a nomination before January 22.
Lytvyn claimed that Yushchenko was not fulfilling his
constitutional duties and that leaving a vacancy in the CEC
during an election period was "unconscionable."


7. (U) The Kyiv Administrative Court of Appeals ruled on
January 21 that the CEC must reconsider its decision not to
register international election observers from Georgia. The
court ruled as illegal the CEC's decision to reject all of
the observers' applications because some forms were missing
information or filled out incorrectly. CEC member Mykhailo
Okhendovskiy announced that the CEC was willing to consider
registering the Georgian observers, but that Georgia needed
to submit a new registration request.

POSTSCRIPT: TATARS FOR TIHIPKO AND TYMOSHENKO
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8. (C) The Turkish ambassador told a gathering of NATO
ambassadors January 21 that the Turkish Embassy's monitoring
and discussions in the Crimea during election weekend
revealed that the Tatars had voted "overwhelmingly" in the
first round for Tihipko. He added that the Tatars intend to
support Tymoshenko in the second round.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have taken predictable paths
as they galvanize their campaigns for the February 7 vote.
Tymoshenko will spare no effort to impress on traditional
"orange" voters that a vote for her, even after the
disappointment of the Orange Revolution, is still better than
staying at home and handing the presidency to Yanukovych.
The pressure is on, and the mud is starting to fly. We'll
see a lot of it before February 7.
TEFFT