SE GRATION MEETING WITH JUBA UN OFFICIALS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000296

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM PREL SU
SUBJECT: SE GRATION MEETING WITH JUBA UN OFFICIALS


1. (SBU) Summary: In a meeting February 18 with U.S. Special
Envoy General Scott Gration, UN officials in Juba reported that
elections mobilization is underway, food insecurity in the South is
on the rise, and the need for additional support and focus on
capacity building in the South is acute. They highlighted the fact
that recent press reporting on the Government of Southern Sudan's
(GOSS) inability to govern could be a self-fulfilling prophesy and
asked for Gration's support to publicly counter such assumptions.
Finally, they asked for the U.S. to provide more assistance on the
security front as well as with development and growth initiatives.
End Summary.

Elections Mobilizing Underway
--------------


2. (SBU) In a February 18 meeting, UN Resident Coordinator David
Gressly and UN Humanitarian Coordinator Lise Grande told U.S.
Special Envoy Gration that elections mobilization is underway and
thus far has progressed without serious incidents. Gressly said
that he was especially surprised that there had been no violence
around the nominations process, although tensions regarding the
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) independents have not
abated. He is most concerned with the time immediately following
elections and the possible June run-off election for national
presidency of Sudan.


3. (SBU) Grande explained that many of the current SPLM problems
stem from the ideological split between those that just want to get
to the referendum and those that want to win the national
presidential election, and who are focused on democratic change.
The National Congress Party (NCP) is clearly not comfortable with
the idea of going to a second round; and if they are pushed to
this, all bets are off. Grande suggested that one possibility for
the NCP is to convince Lam Akol not to run in the south in return
for the SPLM's withdrawal of Yasir Arman from the national
election. Gressly was skeptical about the likelihood of such a
swap.

Food and Human Security
--------------


4. (SBU) Grande reported that this year will be one of the worse
for food security throughout Southern Sudan. She told us that the
UN currently estimates that 4.3 million people will need some food
assistance at some point in 2010. She believes the worse period
may last only two months. However Grande also observed that 1.8
million people will be at higher risk and may need food assistance
for a longer period. World Food Program (WFP) currently believes
it will need 200,000 tons of food in 2010. While the USG has been
the biggest donor to date, Grande added, she wanted the U.S. to
pressure other donors to provide support and assistance. She said
there will also be a need for additional funding for voluntary
returns in Southern Sudan.

Concerns Over Governance and Security
--------------


5. (SBU) While security is a valid concern in Southern Sudan and
the GOSS needs more assistance in order to respond effectively,
recent press reporting highlighting GOSS' lack of capacity to
govern itself may be a self full-filling prophesy, Grande noted.
Gressly pointed out that tribal and community conflict continues
and that these are legitimate concerns, but should not suggest that
the GOSS cannot govern itself. While the police and military need
additional assistance to respond effectively to internal and
external threats, the country will not devolve into Somalia style
conflict in the streets of the capital. Grande specifically
pointed to a recent Financial Times article that suggests that the
south will plunge into chaos if southerners choose separation in
the referendum next January 2011. Grande requested that the USG
publicly counter such assumptions and continue supporting the GOSS
on the security front to better enable them to prevent, mitigate
and respond to local violence and conflict.

USG Assistance for Capacity
--------------


6. (SBU) In recent months there have been a number of initiatives
and assessments aimed at capacity building in the GOSS, as well as
other development initiatives. Who should pay for much of this
technical assistance remains unclear, Grande explained. While IGAD
countries are willing to send 200 technical advisers to Southern
Sudan, the focus of their efforts, the source of funding, and the

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receptivity of the GOSS are unclear. Grande asked that the USG
become more involved in this initiative. All agreed that there is
great need of roads and other infrastructure, as well as
agricultural and farming development. There is also a need to
diversify from oil and attract a wider range of investment in
Southern Sudan. She acknowledged that much of this assistance and
investment must come from the World Bank and African Development
Bank, as the U.S. cannot do it alone.
WHITEHEAD