DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART II: IN WEST DARFUR, A LAME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000260

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TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR ELECTIONS UPDATE, PART II: IN WEST DARFUR, A LAME
DUCK WALI BOWS OUT WHILE CONTROVERSY SURROUNDS NCP NOMINATION

REF: 10 KHARTOUM 158; 10 KHARTOUM 102; 10 KHARTOUM 91


1. (SBU) Summary: Abulgasim Imam Al Hajj, the former rebel who was
appointed Wali of West Darfur as a reward for signing the
Declaration of Commitment (DOC) to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA)
in 2006, has no real constituency and has decided not to run in the
April 2010 elections. In the race to replace him, there is growing
controversy over the National Congress Party's (NCP) decision to
nominate a highly-unpopular former governor, Jaafar Abdulhakan
Idris, over the Masalit Sultan, Saad Abdulrahman Bahreldin. As the
Masalit's traditional tribal leader, Bahreldin maintains broad
allegiance among his tribe, despite being a member of the NCP. With
the Sultan out of the picture, his brother Assad has declared his
intent to run as a candidate from the Democratic Unionist Party
(DUP). Assad Bahreldin believes he has overwhelming support among
the Masalit, who constitute a majority in West Darfur, but
cautioned that the NCP may play "dirty games" to guarantee victory
for its candidate. Candidates for other opposition parties are less
well-known. End Summary.

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BACKGROUND DEMOGRAPHICS
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2. (SBU) West Darfur state has a population of approximately 1.3
million, according to the 2008 census. Among the major tribes are
the Masalit, whose traditional homeland spans the Chad-Sudan
border, and the Fur, who are found mainly in Zalingei and the
western reaches of Jebel Marra. West Darfur also includes a number
of smaller African tribes and various Arab tribal groups, the
latter of which are found primarily in the area of Wadi Saleh.
Aside from nomadic Arab tribes, most of West Darfur's people are
farmers whose ability to work the land has been severely disrupted
by massive displacement caused by the conflict. IDP camps and
camp-like settlements are scattered throughout the state, with
various levels of humanitarian assistance. The IDP population of
West Darfur is estimated to be over 700,000.

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PRECARIOUS SECURITY SITUATION
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3. (SBU) Much like the rest of the region, West Darfur's security
situation remains unpredictable due to the proliferation of armed
actors. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has bases in the capital of El
Geneina as well as Mournei, Zalingei, Nertiti, Mukhjar, and Foro
Baranga. Arab militia fighters, many of whom have been integrated
to the GOS military and security apparatus, are present in most
areas of West Darfur outside Jebel Marra and reportedly harass IDP
populations. Masalit rebels loyal to Sudan Liberation Army
(SLA)/Khamis Abdalla and its breakaway faction, SLA/General Line
(also known as SLA/Mainstream) also maintain a presence in Dar
Masalit, but are extremely weak militarily. Rebels loyal to
SLA/Abdul Wahid hold territory in western Jebel Marra, and in
recent weeks this area has been plagued with infighting among
commanders loyal to the Paris-based Chairman and those who oppose
him and favor participation in the peace process (ref B). Rebels
from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) are increasingly
present in the area of Jebel Moon, and according to UN Sector West
have been clashing with local SLA/AW forces in the area since
January 28 (septel). Finally, while most Chadian rebel forces have
moved away from the Chad-Sudan border in Darfur, a small number are
believed to maintain encampments south of Geneina.

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CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
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4. (SBU) The current Wali (Governor) of West Darfur is Abulgasim
Imam Al Hajj, a Fur from Zalingei. (Note: Poloff discussed
elections with Al Haj in Khartoum on January 31 (ref c). End Note.)
A former SLA/Abdul Wahid Commander, Abulgasim split off to form his
own faction and signed a stand-alone Declaration of Commitment
(DOC) to the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in Libya in November

2006. His group is alternatively known as SLA/Mother or
SLA/Abulgasim Imam. Abulgasim is said to have received military and
logistical support from the GOS, which has also been accused of
engineering his split from the mainstream SLA. As the first Fur
rebel leader to join the DPA and DOC signatories, Abulgasim was

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rewarded with the post of Wali of West Darfur.


5. (SBU) Abulgasim Imam remains highly unpopular among the Fur, due
to their perception that he sold-out to the GOS by signing the DOC.
He is also considered to be little more than a figurehead,
retaining no control over the various GOS military and paramilitary
forces operating in West Darfur. He generally exerts little
influence on important matters. Furthermore, he has done little to
establish ties between SLA/Mother and other DPA and DOC
signatories, leaving himself and his movement isolated. Weak,
marginalized and with no real legacy or political platform in West
Darfur, Abulgasim has decided not to participate in the April 2010
elections.


6. (SBU) Speaking to poloff in at his residence in El Geneina on
February 8, Abulgasim said elections in West Darfur would be
neither free nor fair. He asserted that the 2008 census results of
1.3 million vastly undercounted West Darfur's population, noting
that the 1993 census put the population of West Darfur of 1.8
million, and that he believed the current population was closer to
3 million. He further noted that insecurity would present a major
challenge to elections, noting ongoing fighting in Jebel Moon and
Jebel Marra (septel). "We cannot have elections without peace," he
said. Furthermore, no party outside of the NCP has the capacity or
organization necessary to mobilize voters, he said.

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2010 GOVERNOR'S RACE
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7. (SBU) There has been continuing controversy NCP surrounding the
nomination for Wali of West Darfur. The seemingly obvious choice
for the party in a state dominated by the Masalit tribe was the
Sultan of the Masalit, Saad Abdulrahman Bahreldin. As the Masalit's
traditional tribal leader, Bahreldin maintains popular allegiance
among his tribe despite being a member of the NCP. Instead, NCP
leadership chose former West Darfur Governor Jaafar Abdulhakan
Idris, a Fur Shartai (chief) known for his hard-line NCP views, who
remains highly unpopular due to alleged crimes committed by the
Government during his tenure as Governor from 2006-2007. The
Sultan's brother Assad, himself a candidate for Governor as a
candidate of the DUP, told poloff in El Geneina on February 9 that
in NCP deliberations in Khartoum, Vice President Ali Osman Taha had
supported the candidacy of the Sultan, but was vetoed by Assistant
to the President Nafie Ali Nafie, who insisted on nominating the
Shartai. "It was a very controversial decision," he said.


8. (SBU) Following the NCP nomination of the Shartai, Assad
Bahreldin stated that he advised his brother the Sultan to cut ties
with the NCP. "I told him, you supported these people for twenty
years, and this is how they treat you?" President Bashir invited
the Sultan to Khartoum to attempt to smooth things over, but
stopped short of offering him the nomination. With the Sultan out
of the picture, "the people turned to me and told me I must run,"
said Assad. (Note: During the meeting with poloff, Assad received a
call from his lawyer informing him that the state electoral
commission had approved his name to be listed on the ballot for
Governor. End Note.) Assad, a member of the DUP, was confident of
his victory. "We have a very simple culture here. I'm a tribal
leader, and my people will stand by me," he said, claiming that he
had support from 90% of the electorate. The only thing that could
derail his chances are "dirty games" played by the government,
noting that during voter registration some voter lists had
disappeared and the location of registration centers changed at the
last minute with no prior notice.


9. (SBU) The campaigning phase of the elections began on February

13. Assad stated that he has traveled widely as head of the West
Darfur branch of the Peace and Reconciliation Commission
established by the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA),
and recently spent 28 days traveling to 76 villages and localities
in West Darfur. Nonetheless, he believed insecurity may influence
campaigning especially in the Jebel Moon area near Sileah. Other
candidates for the Wali of West Darfur are Arbab Mohamed Ibrahim of
the SPLM, Tajeldin Bahreldin of Umma, and Osman Risig Mohd or the
Popular Congress Party (PCP). These candidates are not well-known
nor do they appear to have to have large followings.


10. (SBU) Comment: If West Darfuris vote along tribal lines, DUP
candidate Assad Bahreldin should come out as the clear winner,
given that his Masalit tribe constitutes the majority in the state.

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Furthermore the NCP candidate, Jaafar Abdulhakan Idris is not even
popular among his own Fur tribe. Whether the elections will be free
and fair, however, is another story.
WHITEHEAD