Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10KAMPALA83
2010-02-23 13:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kampala
Cable title:  

UGANDA: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON KING OF BUGANDA

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM UG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0083/01 0541339
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 231338Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0262
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000083 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON KING OF BUGANDA

REF: 10 KAMPALA 69; 09 KAMPALA 1044

CLASSIFIED BY: Tim Manarin, Political Officer; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000083

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/23
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON KING OF BUGANDA

REF: 10 KAMPALA 69; 09 KAMPALA 1044

CLASSIFIED BY: Tim Manarin, Political Officer; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: The leader of Uganda's largest and most powerful
ethnic group told the Ambassador on February 18 that Uganda is
slipping toward instability. Buganda King Ronald Mutebi II said he
is apprehensive about the February 2011 election, and accused
President Museveni of trying to dismantle the Buganda Kingdom. The
King and his advisors said there are no ongoing negotiations with
the government to defuse tensions stemming from the deadly
September 2009 riots, and accused Museveni of "persecuting" Buganda
in retaliation for the Kingdom's demand for federalism. End
Summary.



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King Warns of Democratic Backsliding

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2. (C) King Mutebi met Ambassador Lanier and PolOff at the King's
palace on Banda hill in Kampala. Also present were Buganda's Prime
Minister John Baptist Walusimbi, Attorney General Apollo Makubuya,
and Deputy Attorney General David Mpanga. The King voiced concern
for Uganda's democratic backsliding and urged vigilance to avert
what he described as "our worst fears." When the Ambassador asked
him to elaborate, Mutebi said public support for Museveni is
declining and that Museveni has failed to strengthen the
institutions needed to prevent a return to Uganda's violent past.




3. (C) Mutebi described Museveni's refusal to reform the Electoral
Commission as a recipe for disaster. The King also noted rising
ethnic tensions, and said these tensions were not present a few
years ago. Mutebi said there is a widely held perception that the
U.S. has given Museveni a pass on democracy in return for Uganda's
troop contributions to the African Union Mission to Somalia. He
warned that the U.S. may be inadvertently promoting instability by
ignoring Museveni's democratic failings. Attorney General Makubuya
added that many Ugandans wonder why the U.S. took a tough line with
Kenya on democracy but not Uganda. In response, Ambassador Lanier
said the building of democracy is the highest priority for the U.S.
in Uganda, that the U.S. regards Uganda as one of our closest
partners in the region, that we consistently stress the importance

of holding peaceful and democratic elections during discussions
with Ugandan leaders, and noted the recent congressional reporting
requirement for the 2011 elections (ref. A).



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Buganda Has No Faith in Museveni

--------------




4. (C) With little progress since the September 2009 riots that
left as many as 27 people dead (ref. B),Mutebi said that Buganda
was undergoing a kind of "persecution" by the state and emphasized
that he was not using the word lightly. He complained that the
central government has shown no good will toward Buganda, cannot be
trusted, and that no negotiations with Museveni are ongoing.
Buganda Prime Minister Walusimbi noted that the Kingdom's dispute
goes well beyond the riots and the closure of CBS radio to include
issues of land and civic rights. Walusimbi accused Museveni of
failing to honor a personal promise in April 2009 to return a
particular piece of land to the Kingdom.




5. (C) Walusimbi described the closure of CBS radio as the latest
step in Museveni's plan to break Buganda's back, and Kingdom of
Buganda Attorney General Makubuya complained that the Ugandan
government responded to a lawsuit by CBS's 100 employees for
wrongful loss of employment with a countersuit seeking damages for
the loss of life and property incurred during the September riots.
Makubuya said Museveni precipitated the riots by illegally blocking
Prime Minister Walusimibi from visiting Kayunga district in

KAMPALA 00000083 002 OF 002


September, and said Buganda has little hope of legal redress due to
the steady erosion of the judiciary's independence.



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Federalism and the Buganda Voting Bloc

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6. (C) When the Ambassador asked why Museveni regards the Kingdom
as a threat, Mutebi said the ruling National Resistance Movement
(NRM) party knows Buganda represents Uganda's largest voting bloc,
but that the NRM views Buganda demands for federalism as
unacceptable. Mutebi characterized the rapid proliferation of
administrative districts as an attempt by Museveni to fracture and
weaken larger groupings like Buganda, and scoffed at government
claims that redistricting will bring services closer to the people,
arguing instead that new districts have only increased patronage
jobs and reduced funds trickling down to people at the grassroots.




7. (C) Kingdom leaders agreed that Museveni has delivered security
and improved economic growth during more than 20 years in power,
but insisted that a return to a federal system like the one that
existed until 1966 is the only way to fully restore peace and
stability in Uganda. Mubebi stressed that Buganda is not advocating
for secession from Uganda, but rather a federal system where the
national government retains certain overarching responsibilities
like defense, foreign affairs, and monetary policy-making. The
Prime Minister and Attorney General said that they envision a
federal Buganda government as a constitutional monarchy led by a
democratically elected parliament.




8. (C) Mutebi noted that the Odoki Commission in the mid-1990s
found that 65 percent of all Ugandans support federalism, and said
the Kingdom made some progress toward convincing non-ethnic Baganda
of federalism's value during a December 2009 conference. He said
Buganda has always welcomed and integrated non-Baganda so there
should be no fear that a Buganda government would impinge on the
rights of other ethnicities living in the kingdom, and added that
western Uganda's Bunyoro Kingdom, which wants to benefit from
recent oil discoveries, is becoming a convert to federalism.



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Comment: Risks for 2011

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9. (C) Raised and educated in Britain, Mutebi radiates an air of
British royalty. Since the King's infrequent public statements are
generally confined to terse, non-political messages, this meeting
offered a rare glimpse of the King's personal viewpoints. Buganda's
relationship with Museveni and Uganda's political situation is not
encouraging, as both Buganda and Museveni appear to be engaged in a
high stakes game of chicken, with Buganda refusing to dial back
demands for federalism and Museveni determined to chip away at the
Kingdom's authority. The standoff has increased the King's popular
support among ethnic Baganda - as evidenced by the notable rise in
portraits of Buganda royalty being sold by street vendors and
displayed in car windows throughout central Uganda. Meanwhile, it
will be difficult for Museveni to win central Uganda in 2011
without the King in his corner, and Museveni will be taking a
calculated political risk by running for re-election without
Buganda's support. Continued animosity between the King and the
President, and the subsequent failure to defuse tensions stemming
from the deadly September riots, raise the odds for conflict during
the presidential election in February 2011.
LANIER