Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10KAMPALA67
2010-02-11 13:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kampala
Cable title:  

UGANDA: BY-ELECTION GOES FROM SUCCESS TO SUSPECT

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1382
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #0067/01 0421322
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 111322Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0217
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000067 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: BY-ELECTION GOES FROM SUCCESS TO SUSPECT

REF: 09 KAMPALA 01278; 09 KAMPALA 01349

CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: BY-ELECTION GOES FROM SUCCESS TO SUSPECT

REF: 09 KAMPALA 01278; 09 KAMPALA 01349

CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: A January 25 by-election in central Uganda
underscored concerns about the voter registry and the transparency
of polling results in advance of the February 2011 presidential
election. Local media and observers described turn out as low, and
the Electoral Commission uncovered one instance of ballot stuffing.
Our own review of election results cast suspicion over returns from
nearly one fifth of Budiope's 140 polling stations. While the
apparent fraud may not have affected the outcome in favor of the
ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate, similar
practices could impact the outcome of a competitive and contentious
presidential election in February 2011. End Summary.



--------------

Budiope By-Election

--------------




2. (SBU) Citizens north of Jinja in central Uganda's Budiope
sub-county voted on January 25 to elect a new Member of Parliament
following the death of Budiope's former MP in a vehicle accident.
Three EmbOffs joined with European Union colleagues and the
International Republican Institute to field a small contingent of
election observers. Budiope is a rural area without any paved
roads or towns. EmbOffs visited polling places in village market
areas, fields, school yards, and private compounds. All polling
stations visited were outdoors and open to the elements. The NRM
candidate won with 23,457 votes (75.6%). The opposition Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC) candidate finished a distant second with
only 6,210 votes (20%). Official turnout was 51%. The Electoral
Commission spent approximately $34,000 (or $0.53 per registered
voter) to organize the election. The Chairman of the Electoral
Commission and three Commissioners were in Budiope to observe the
exercise.




3. (SBU) The campaign period was peaceful and all materials seemed
to be in place the evening before the vote. On election morning,
several polling stations opened hours late due to tardy poll
workers and/or lack of voters as Ugandan law requires a specific
number of voters to witness the opening of each polling station.

Few voters seemed to have voter cards, but voter registries include
photographs and those without cards can vote provided they match
the picture in the registry and someone at the polling station
vouches for their identity. The Electoral Commission voided results
from one polling station where the number of ballots exceeded the
number of voters. Three poll workers were arrested, charged with
electoral malpractice, and released on bail.




4. (C) Election day appeared clam and moderately well organized,
although opposition leaders alleged intimidation and rigging.
EmbOffs observed riot police, armed with weapons and tear gas
grenades, in areas highlighted by the Commission as potential flash
points. At one polling station riot police were leaning against the
string demarcating a polling station when EmbOffs arrived. The
police immediately melted away, but opposition party delegates and
others complained that the police had been deployed the night
before to depress local turnout and intimidate villagers.



-------------- ---

Voter Registry Problems - Missing Voters

-------------- --------------




5. (SBU) On election day, the FDC announced that voter registries
sold to the FDC by the Electoral Commission on January 21 contained
approximately 2,800 more names than the official registries
distributed by the Commission to poll workers on January 22, and
accused the Commission of surreptitiously deleting the names of FDC
supporters. Observers confirmed that voter registries issued to the

KAMPALA 00000067 002 OF 003


FDC differed from those issued to poll workers, but the deletions
appeared to be more a function of the Electoral Commission's
disorganization than a concerted plot to disenfranchise opposition
voters. According to the Electoral Commission, the actual voter
register was not finalized until January 23 and deletions in the
days preceding the election involved the removal of deceased voters
and those no longer living in Budiope sub-county. The Commission
defended the registry "cleaning" process, stating that all legal
guidelines and requirements were followed.



--------------

Suspect Participation Rates

--------------




6. (SBU) Local newspapers, observers, and the Electoral Commission
all reported low voter turnout. The Director of the European
Union's $20m Deepening Democracy Project (DDP) noted numerous
factors that depressed participation rates, including traditional
disinterest in by-elections, a lackluster campaign period, a race
regarded by many as a foregone conclusion in favor of the NRM, and
the fact that the by-election winner must stand for re-election
again next year. Official numbers placed the participation rate at
51%, which is remarkably good for a low profile by-election in a
rural constituency. An analysis of participation rates by polling
station, however, reveals that nearly 20% of Budiope's 140 polling
stations reported turnout rates in excess of 88%, with several
stations carried by the NRM recording 99% or 100% participation.
Average turnout at the 29 stations won by the FDC was 38%.



-------------- --------------

No Answers From Electoral Commission

-------------- --------------




7. (SBU) The U.S. Mission shared its assessment of the Budiope
election with Electoral Commission's Secretary, Sam Rwakoojo, on
February 8. We noted that while the Commission's last minute
changes to the voter rolls did not appear to disenfranchise
specific voters, the unfortunate timing raised suspicions that
could have been avoided had the Commission shared the final list
with all interested stakeholders. In response to questions about
the surprisingly high participation rates at some polling stations,
Rwakoojo said a high turnout for a presidential election would
likely not exceed 70%, but claimed participation rates of 90 to
100% for an unheralded by-election in Budiope are not cause for
concern.




8. (SBU) Despite advance assurances from the Electoral Commission
that Rwakoojo would provide us with an updated budget for the 2011
elections, Rwakoojo said the Commission is still revising its
budget for 2010 and 2011. In 2009, the Commission requested $98
million for election-related activities in 2010 and 2011. This is
almost double what the Commission spent for elections in 2006.
According to the DDP, the Commission spent $4.30 per registered
voter in 2006 but is on track to spend $8.60 per voter in 2011
(ref. A). Rwakoojo said the Commission has revised its budget
downward by approximately $3.5 million by cancelling and scaling
back planned activities that can no longer be implemented before
2011, but said the budget could go back up as the Commission is
still working on final calculations. The Commission has so far
received one third of its budget request, or 61 billion shillings
($30 million),from the Ugandan government.




9. (SBU) Rwakoojo was unable to provide an updated roadmap for the
2011 election cycle. He claimed the Commission completed the field
component of the polling station re-organization exercise per the
roadmap's February 1 date, and said opposition parties participated
in this process. Two FDC parliamentarians, however, told the
Mission on February 8 that they were not aware of any attempt to
reorganize polling stations in their constituencies and were not in

KAMPALA 00000067 003 OF 003


contact with the Electoral Commission.




10. (SBU) Rwakoojo was also unable to provide additional
information on the timetable for cleaning the voter registry, which
along with the reorganization of polling stations is one of the
election's most contentious issues. Rwakoojo said procurement
difficulties delayed the registry clean-up. In November, the Public
Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets Authority (PPDA) canceled
a $15m tender issued by the Electoral Commission for a voter
registration and biometric ID system due to irregularities in the
bidding process and complaints that the proposed registration
program would target only urban voters who traditionally support
opposition parties (ref.B). Rwakoojo said the Commission is
determined to move ahead with the procurement, despite the fact
that it will consume nearly half the government's current allotment
to the Commission.



-------------- --------------

Comment: One By-Election, Two Lessons

-------------- --------------




11. (SBU) A transparent voter register is critical to the success
of the 2011 election. The Electoral Commission did itself no favors
by revising the registry just days before election day and failing
to notify the FDC. On February 9, the FDC called on the Electoral
Commission to post the registry to the internet and arrange for
on-line registration of voters. On-line voter registration in
Uganda, where few voters have access to the internet and many have
no electricity, is impractical. Posting the entire registry on
line, however, would increase transparency, get the Commission out
of the business of selling the registry by the page to
stakeholders, and enable political parties to monitor changes to
the electoral list when they occur. On February 11, the local
National Democratic Institute (NDI) representative estimated that
posting the registry to the internet with a built-in search engine
would cost approximately $25,000 and not pose any serious
technological difficulties.




12. (SBU) The Commission should also set a cut off date for
freezing changes to the registry prior to election day, and provide
a second copy of the registry to post in front of polling stations
on election day to reduce voter confusion and allow voters to
quickly ascertain - without standing in line for hours - whether
they are lined up in front of the correct polling station.




13. (C) The inflated participation rates suggest scattered
collusion between poll workers and delegates from opposition
parties. On February 8, two FDC parliamentarians admitted that
party poll watchers are not well compensated and that some in rural
poverty-stricken areas like Budiope are tempted to accept small pay
offs to look the other way. Although this collusion did not impact
the lopsided Budiope result, it could have a destabilizing effect
should the 2011 presidential election be close and competitive.
LANIER