FATA CLEARING OPERATIONS CONTINUE, DISPLACED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000175

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MARR MASS PK
SUBJECT: FATA CLEARING OPERATIONS CONTINUE, DISPLACED
RECEIVING ASSISTANCE, AMPLE FOOD

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 2591

B. ISLAMABAD 2607

C. ISLAMABAD 2672

D. ISLAMABAD 2708

E. ISLAMABAD 2780

F. ISLAMABAD 2801

G. ISLAMABAD 2837

H. ISLAMABAD 2972

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary: The Pakistani military is continuing its
counterinsurgency efforts along the main corridors of South
Waziristan and the northern and central FATA with low level
search and clear operations. Frontier Corps operations in
Bajaur remain on hold, awaiting additional forces.
Meanwhile, humanitarian assistance (food and non-food items)
is reaching both the approximately 12,000 families displaced
from Orakzai and the approximately 38,000 families displaced
from South Waziristan. Of the displaced, only a few, perhaps
one hundred families, are in a camp. End Summary.

SOUTH WAZIRISTAN: CLEARING OPERATIONS CONTINUE
-------------- -


2. (S/NF) In South Waziristan, units assigned to the 11th
Corps continue to conduct small-scale clearing operations on
major and secondary line of communication (LOCs) and in
built-up areas. Units of the 7th Division hold Makin and
Razmak on the northern axis; the 9th Division holds the
southwest axis from Wana while the 14th Division continues to
secure the LOC to Jandola in the south east. All division
continue to conduct search and clear operations. We do not
expect any major new operations in South Waziristan for the
moment. There has been talk of an additional push, but
Pakistani military contacts have indicated to us that troop
rotations and resupply requirements mean any additional
effort would not happen before March.

BAJAUR: WAITING FOR A MAJOR OFFENSIVE
--------------


3. (S/NF) In Bajaur Agency, Pakistan Army troops remain
deployed along the Charmung and Watalai Valley, with
additional checkpoints in place near Khar to screen vehicles
entering and leaving the Watalai Valley -- an indication of
possible preparations for a future operation. U.S. provided
Intelligence targets of interest in Bajaur Agency's Mamund
Valley and provide coordinates for artillery strikes and
future Pakistan Air Force air strikes. It is likely these
operations will continue through the end of January.


4. (S/NF) Pakistan Military and Frontier Corps forces
appear to be delaying the start of a planned three-week
offensive in the Mamund Valley, originally scheduled to start
on January 6, because of a request for two additional Army
battalions for clearing operations. The additional forces
are the 14th Punjab Battalion (from Kwazakhela, Swat, the
12th Northern Light Infantry Battalion (from Sialkot, Punjab)
and the 4th Commando Battalion and Karrar Company of the
Special Services Group battalion (the Pakistan Army's Special
Forces). In addition, the 2nd Wing of the Tocho Scouts
(currently in Bajaur) may be relieved by a wing of the
Chitral Scouts, who just completed FCTC training at Warsak.

INCREASED CHECKPOINTS
--------------


5. (S/NF) Access to Orakzai Agency from the surrounding four
agencies and districts has been blocked by security forces,
and artillery and armor have moved to the Khyber and Kurram
borders with Orakzai. This coupled with the repositioning of
artillery and armor assets in Kurram and Khyber suggests
additional operations are imminent against TTP insurgents in
western Orakzai or Tariq Afridi militants in the Darra Adam
Khel region of NWFP.

INFRASTRUCTURE RECONSTRUCTION
--------------


ISLAMABAD 00000175 002 OF 002



6. (U) On December 31, 2009, USAID signed and Implementation
Letter (IL) with the FATA Secretariat for the rehabilitation
and reconstruction of water, road and energy infrastructure
in South Waziristan. USAID will
reimburse the FATA Secretariat for work completed according
to pre-agreed costs and specifications. The GOP is currently
preparing the specifications and cost estimates for the
projects, with an initial emphasis on a major road between
Tank and Makeen. Once the design and cost estimate has been
completed and approved, USAID will advance the FATA
Secretariat 15 percent of the cost to cover mobilization
expenses, with additional funding to be disbursed after the
work is completed. The FATA Secretariat is contracting the
Frontier Works Organization (FWO) to implement the road
projects. In a January 14 meeting with USAID, FWO confirmed
that it had mobilized a team in South Waziristan to complete
the design and cost estimates.

ASSISTANCE TO ORAKZAI AND SWA DISPLACED
--------------


7. (SBU) Humanitarian assistance - food and non-food items
(NFI) - is reaching both the approximately 12,000 families
displaced from Orakzai and the approximately 38,000 families
displaced from South Waziristan. Of the Orakzai displaced,
the 8,000 families in Kohat have received NFI through UNHCR,
and the rest, who are in Hangu, are supported by ICRC. Only
a very few -- perhaps one hundred families -- are in a camp.
While the Orakzai displaced do not receive cash payments from
the Government of Pakistan, they are supported with food from
the World Food Program (WFP).


8. (C) Those registered displaced (members of the Mehsud
tribe) from South Waziristan are primarily in DI Khan and
Tank where they have received ample non-food items from
UNHCR. They receive a one-month food distribution from WFP
upon registration and then are entitled to government
payments of PKR 5,000 (about $60) a month. Those who do not
yet have activated government cash cards continue to receive
WFP food.


9. (C) For military and strategic purposes, the GOP does not
recognize members of the neighboring Bhittani tribe as
conflict-displaced IDPs and hence has not designated them as
eligible for government payments. Recently, however, UNHCR
was pleased to be able to win government permission to
register the Bhittani displaced unofficially and to see that
they receive humanitarian assistance. A total of some 2,000
Bhittani families are being registered in DI Khan and Tank,
and when this registration is completed in the next few days,
this group will benefit from NFI and food distributions.


10. (SBU) Even prior to the security forces' blocking of
access to Orakzai Agency, humanitarian actors have not been
able to provide assistance within Orakzai or South
Waziristan. Humanitarian organizations have begun planning,
however, for possible assistance upon the eventual return of
IDPs to areas of displacement. They have received some
indications from the military to expect the beginning of this
return in March.


11. (S/NF) Comment: As we have previously noted, the Army's
South Waziristan campaign has significantly eroded the TTP's
command and control, but has not destroyed the TTP network,
whose fighters melted away in South Waziristan or fled to
other FATA agencies, rather than put up stiff resistance.
The Army still faces a long road ahead in rooting out the TTP
in South Waziristan and pursuing TTP elements elsewhere in
the FATA.
PATTERSON