SOCIAL JUSTICE TRUMPS DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 000268

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MC HK
SUBJECT: SOCIAL JUSTICE TRUMPS DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT FOR
MACAU REFORMERS

REF: (A) 09 HONG KONG 1807 (B) HONG KONG 101

Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher Marut for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Although democracy is now at least a topic
of discussion in Macau, even the leading advocates of
democratic reform see little prospect that the public will
push for more democracy in the near term. At most, there
might be a transition in the 2013 legislative elections that
would change two of the appointed seats in the Legislative
Assembly to directly-elected seats. Youth politics are also
not a force for democratic reform, with one democratic
politician suggesting young graduates were actually
well-positioned to benefit from Macau's current economic
growth. Democracy not being a mobilizing issue, the
proto-democratic New Macau Association continues to focus on
grass-roots issues, particularly public housing, income
distribution and imported labor.

--------------
Under Discussion
--------------


2. (C) Despite being the only political organization
supporting democratic reform in Macau to have gained a seat
in the September Legislative Assembly (LA) elections (ref A),
the New Macau Association (NMA) recognizes the victory had
more to do with smart election tactics than increased
popularity among the public. (Note: the NMA's two incumbent
legislators, Antonio Ng Kuok-cheong and Au Kam-sam, ran on
separate tickets, which allowed them to distribute their vote
count broadly enough to seat Paul Chan Wai-chi from Ng's
electoral slate. End note.) Recognizing this, NMA's Au told
us pushing for greater democratic reform is not NMA's main
focus at present. They are nevertheless still visible on the
issue: the NMA has already attempted (unsuccessfully) to
petition new Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai-on on
democratic reform. The NMA was also able to rally a very
respectable 1,000 people to march on Macau Foundation Day
(December 20) in support of democracy and livelihood issues
and against corruption.


3. (C) University of Macau (UM) scholar Eilo Yu Wing-yat told
us democracy was now a topic of conversation, although he did
not think those participating in the discussion had a
particular goal or focus as yet. Though she did not win a
seat in the LA, Yu believed UM journalism professor Agnes Lam
Iok-fong, who had democratic reform in her electoral
platform, had been established as an opinion leader. Her
Civic Power organization continues to bill itself as a
moderate pro-reform alternative to the "confrontational" NMA.
Meanwhile, Yu noted that even the "traditional associations"
-- "patriotic" organizations founded with PRC backing during
the colonial period that since the handover have become part
of the establishment -- now run on platforms promising to
"check" the Macau government.


4. (C) Macau Polytechnic Institute social work professor
Larry So Man-yum agreed there was no mass support to push for
democratic reform. Nevertheless, So expressed hope that
Macau might make some democratic progress under the Chui
administration. Contending that questions were now being
asked about the number of appointed LA members (currently
seven, with ten members indirectly elected by economic and
social sectors and twelve directly elected),he allowed that
perhaps two of those seats might become directly elected in
the next legislative elections in 2013.

--------------
Callow Youth?
--------------


5. (C) NMA's Au felt Macau youth were not involved in
politics the way Hong Kong's "post-80s" were (see ref b),and
offered two reasons. First, Au doubted Macau youth have the
same developed social consciousness their Hong Kong
counterparts evince. Second, while young Hong Kong
university graduates were having trouble finding good
employment in Hong Kong's established (and still recovering)
economy, Au thought young Macau graduates were among the best
placed to take advantage of Macau's still-considerable boom.
UM's Yu gave the youth more credit, suggesting the post-80s
movement in Hong Kong was serving as an example to a
university/young graduate population already more actively
discussing political issues. That said, Yu did not indicate
Macau youth politics was taking on the radical edge seen in
Hong Kong.

--------------

HONG KONG 00000268 002 OF 002


Doing Well by Doing Good
--------------


6. (C) With democracy a distant goal, the NMA continues to
focus on livelihood issues, which are its bread-and-butter in
the LA and in public mobilization. While the government
agreed to fund universal free education, Au pointed to the
lack of public housing and the inequitable distribution of
the economic benefits of Macau's boom as key grass-roots
concerns. Polytechnic's So concurred, noting that, while the
median monthly income was MOP 8,000 (about USD 1000),the
median dropped to MOP 6,000 (about USD 750) once casino
workers (median income MOP 10,000/USD 1250) were factored
out. That said, So admitted he could not explain why Macau's
gini coefficient was actually going down (a larger number
represents a greater societal disparity in wealth).


7. (C) While 80 percent of Macau households reported owning
their residence, So thinks this represents the older
generation, and that new families have difficulty in finding
affordable housing. Two issues add to this problem. First,
So suggested local business interests were reluctant to see
public housing made available that could lower the value of
their holdings. Second, there is no land left on which to
build in Macau, and So actually thinks the government may be
in "debt" to various developers, owing them land in payment
for land "swaps." The public will watch recently-approved
land reclamation projects closely, So said, looking to see
how much of the gain ends up in the hands of vested interests.
MARUT