DJIBOUTI: ASD VERSHBOW AND GODJ DISCUSS STRONG BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DJIBOUTI 000127

SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/02
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS KPKO KPIR DJ YM ER SO
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI: ASD VERSHBOW AND GODJ DISCUSS STRONG BILATERAL
PARTNERSHIP, REGIONAL CHALLENGES

CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. During separate January 24 meetings, visiting
Assistant Secretary of Defense (ASD) for International Security
Affairs Alexander Vershbow discussed Yemen, Somalia, and Eritrea
with Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh, Foreign Minister
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Minister of Defense Ahmed Kifleh Ougoureh,
and Deputy Chief of Defense staff Major General Zakaria Cheick
Ibrahim. President Guelleh thanked ASD Vershbow for current
cooperation between Djibouti and the United States, and asked for
increased intelligence-sharing and support to the Coast Guard to
counter extremist threats. On Eritrea, Guelleh requested that the
United States work with France to start inspecting Eritrea-bound
vessels for arms, in order to enforce the embargo provisions of
United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1907. Guelleh
and Youssouf both underscored Djibouti's ongoing commitment to
contribute troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM),
and said that Djibouti remained concerned that the threat of
violent extremism continued to move north from Somalia toward
Djibouti. On Yemen, Foreign Minister Youssouf agreed with ASD
Vershbow that the international community needed to help the
government of Yemen (ROYG) as it tackled not just extremist threats
from al-Qaeda, but first and foremost serious internal problems.
END SUMMARY.



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USG-GODJ: STRONG PARTNERSHIP

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2. (C) ASD Vershbow thanked President Guelleh and Foreign Minister
Youssouf for the GODJ's strong partnership with the United
States--including Djibouti's hosting of U.S. military forces at
Camp Lemonnier, and collaboration to combat terrorism. In hosting
U.S. forces, President Guelleh told ASD Vershbow and Ambassador,
"we are sure that we're doing what is right." He thanked ASD
Vershbow for ongoing U.S. military cooperation and
intelligence-sharing, and urged continued and increased
collaboration. The United States, Guelleh said, should "help
Africans enforce and maintain peace, meet the economic needs of
their populations, and assist with capacity-building and
intelligence."



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SOMALIA

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3. (C) Planned U.S. Africa Contingency Operations Training and
Assistance (ACOTA) support for Djibouti was crucial, Guelleh told
Ambassador and ASD Vershbow, even if there was no "peace yet to
keep in Somalia." Guelleh volunteered that the GODJ would seek
training for two or three battalions (NOTE. Each of about 450
troops. END NOTE). Guelleh assessed that a force of 2,000-3,000
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops could clear al-Shabaab
from downtown Mogadishu, if AMISOM forces blocked the extremists
from reinforcing. Foreign Minister Youssouf--while emphasizing
that Djibouti would need to train the troops it planned to send to
AMISOM, and continue evaluating its own security
situation--contrasted Djibouti's firm commitment with what he
characterized as Kenya "going back" on its promise to provide
troops.




4. (C) Reiterating an ongoing GODJ position, Youssouf said that
there was an urgent need to revise and expand AMISOM's current
mandate, empowering it not just to protect the TFG, but to actually
participate in peacekeeping in Mogadishu. He warned that expanding
AMISOM's mandate without providing additional resources would
merely result in more collateral damage, which al-Shabaab would
then skillfully exploit as a public relations tool. Nevertheless,

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Youssouf said, the international community could now "rely on"
3,000 to 4,000 Somali troops with basic skills, including those
recently trained in Djibouti. The Djibouti trainees, Youssouf
said, were currently assigned to protect Mogadishu's port and
airport, and remained disciplined despite receiving salaries
sporadically.




5. (C) Asked to assess TFG President Sharif's leadership, Youssouf
said that while Sharif was "growing" as a leader and had
spearheaded some successful operations, he still looked "small" in
his attempt to fill the "big" role of statesman in a transitioning
country. The international community still needs to give him some
time, Youssouf urged, and noted that the TFG was currently planning
a "large-scale attack" to take ground from al-Shabaab in Mogadishu.
The TFG still needed major assistance with organization, training,
and logistics, and many members of parliament remained outside of
Somalia. Several members of parliament were currently in Djibouti,
Youssouf mentioned, working on the transitional constitution. The
GODJ was advising the TFG to ramp up strategic communications that
could counter al-Shabaab's recruitment efforts, and had even
broadcast some messages supportive of this goal through the sole
state-run television station in Djibouti. On a positive note, the
TFG stood to benefit from fundamental splits among extremist groups
with conflicting political and ideological agendas. Ordinary
Somalis are increasingly rejecting extremist claims--such as that
everything, even including rape, is justifiable in the context of
jihad--and understand that extremists are simply using Islam as a
means to an end, to achieve clan or power goals through purported
religious means.




6. (C) Youssouf said that the GODJ had "confirmed" links between
piracy and al-Shabaab terrorist activity; payment of pirate ransoms
has reportedly correlated closely with upticks in attacks around
Mogadishu. Youssouf emphasized that the diversion of piracy
ransoms could be a very dangerous development. President Guelleh
emphasized that the international community needed to help
Somalia's coast guard become capable of combating piracy and
illegal fishing. No piracy problem in the world, he noted, has
ever been solved without tackling pirates' land bases. Djibouti's
port-based economy, President Guelleh reiterated, suffers
economically when piracy drives up shipping insurance rates.



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EXTREMIST THREATS

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7. (C) Protecting Djibouti from terrorist threats remains a
central GODJ preoccupation. Combating terrorism is a "global
responsibility," President Guelleh told ASD Vershbow, and not an
American problem. Sharing intelligence is a key shield against
terrorist threats, as is denying extremists safe havens by helping
governments such as Somalia and Yemen tackle local problems. The
threat of terrorist activity continues to move north from Somalia,
Youssouf said, and Djibouti was concerned that its political
involvement in Somalia and its hosting of foreign troops made the
country an attractive target for extremists. Kenya, he noted, had
recently become a "less welcoming place" for ethnic Somalis, with
the result that more and more Somalis--not all of whom may have the
best intentions--are moving their home base to Djibouti.



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YEMEN

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8. (C) ASD Vershbow outlined U.S. cooperation with the ROYG,
including our emphasis on building partnerships with regional
states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. ASD
Vershbow highlighted the upcoming January 28 "Friends of Yemen"
meeting in London, and stressed that while the United States and
the international community are prepared to assist Yemen, the ROYG
must also be prepared to make tough decisions. Djibouti, ASD
Vershbow told Guelleh, has already sent its neighbors a powerful
message about taking responsibility in the region. Guelleh said
that Yemen's economic crisis was proving a fertile breeding ground
for terrorists, and urged greater sharing of intelligence on
threats, particularly among Gulf states. Although al-Shabaab has
declared it is taking the fight to Yemen, Youssouf said, serious
internal political problems in the north and south remain the
ROYG's biggest challenges, with threats from al-Qaeda and
al-Shabaab taking second place.



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ERITREA

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9. (C) Both President Guelleh and Foreign Minister Youssouf asked
the United States--possibly in tandem with France--to begin
inspecting Eritrea-bound vessels for violations of the UNSCR 1907
arms embargo. Guelleh said that he had raised this issue with
President Sarkozy during the latter's brief stopover in Djibouti
January 19. ASD Vershbow promised to engage France on this
request, and said that the international community needed to
prevent Eritrea from continuing to play a regional spoiler role
based on its "zero sum" relationship with Ethiopia. Eritrea,
Youssouf underlined, continued to try to export "anarchy" to
Djibouti, and remained dangerous in Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen.
Yemeni President Saleh suspected that Eritrea was arming Houthi
rebels, and had recently told Djibouti that a vessel full of arms
had been intercepted en route from Eritrea to Yemen. It was
possible, Youssouf said, that Eritrea was fulfilling the agendas of
other countries-for example, Libya or even Iran. Domestically,
Eritrea is an "open air prison," Youssouf told ASD Vershbow, citing
the recent mass defection of the entire Eritrean national soccer
team.




10. (C) Minister of Defense Kifleh Ougoureh asserted that the GSE
is training Ethiopian Oromo opposition groups, Somali Ogadenis and
Islamists, and now Djiboutian Afars to destabilize Djibouti and
cast the border dispute as the result of internal Djiboutian
unrest. The Minister thanked ASD Vershbow for strong USG support
for UNSCR 1907, but warned that Eritrean President Isaias is
preparing new "maneuvers" to threaten Djibouti.



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COMMENT

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11. (C) Djiboutians have always been acutely aware that the
turbulence of their neighborhood can easily disturb their relative
tranquility. While well accustomed to instability in the region,
President Guelleh and his administration have recently felt
particularly hemmed in between tenuously-controlled Somalia, major
internal problems in Yemen, regional terrorist threats, and a
festering border conflict with Eritrea. Djibouti deeply
appreciates USG support to mitigate these threats--from political
backing on UNSCR 1907 to information-sharing. As evidenced by
President Guelleh's request for greater intelligence-sharing,
support to the Coast Guard, and help enforcing the arms embargo
against Eritrea, Djibouti will likely continue to look to the
United States as a key regional security partner. END COMMENT.

DJIBOUTI 00000127 004 OF 004



12. (U) ASD Vershbow cleared this cable.
SWAN