SARG SHEDS LIGHT ON ITS DROUGHT CONCERNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000097

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR PRM/ANE, DEPT FOR USAID, CAIRO FOR FAS, LONDON FOR
MILLER, PARIS FOR NOBLES, ROME FOR WFP WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2020
TAGS: EAGR EAID ECON FAS PGOV PREL SOCI SY WFP
SUBJECT: SARG SHEDS LIGHT ON ITS DROUGHT CONCERNS

REF: A. DAMASCUS 070

B. 09 DAMASCUS 619

C. 09 DAMASCUS 432

D. 09 DAMASCUS 499

E. 08 DAMASCUS 847

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Chuck Hunter for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: SARG officials discussed the drought
afflicting northeast Syria with surprising transparency
during a January 27 public forum that drew comparisons to
those held during the pre-2001 "Damascus Spring." During the
same week, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs
Abdullah al-Dardari publicly blamed the drought for Syria's
failure to achieve a series of economic goals in the past few
years. Though recent rains raised hopes of possible relief
on the horizon, representatives from the World Food Program
(WFP) and Action Against Hunger-Spain underscored the
worsening humanitarian impact of the drought during meetings
with Emboffs. The WFP effort has reached "a critical point,"
and WFP officials believe that a U.S. contribution could
spark a "domino effect" of donations that will not otherwise
be forthcoming. END SUMMARY.

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SARG INCREASINGLY FRANK ABOUT DROUGHT SEVERITY
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2. (C) SARG officials discussed the drought afflicting
northeast Syria with surprising transparency during a January
27 public forum organized by the Syrian Economic Society.
Some press commentators compared the event to those held
during the "Damascus Spring," a movement that attempted to
revive civil society but was eventually crushed by the SARG
in 2001. Government participants at the forum acknowledged
that poverty levels in the northeast governorates now hover
around 80 percent, and the water shortage approaches 2.5
billion cubic meters per year. Hassan Katana, Head of
Statistics and Planning at the Ministry of Agriculture, told
attendees, "All our agricultural resources have been used up.
The real challenge is to develop strategies and know-how to
provide new economic activity in this region." Atieh
al-Hindi, Head of the National Agricultural Policy Center,
acknowledged the government's responsibility for
environmental challenges, remarking that its subsidy policies
helped to improve living standards in the northeast but
contributed to the region's water shortage.


3. (SBU) During the same week, Deputy Prime Minister for
Economic Affairs Abdullah al-Dardari arguably went further,
blaming the drought wholesale for recent economic
shortcomings. Speaking to the First Conference on
International Development in Syria on January 23, Dardari
lamented that "Syria could have achieved goals pertaining to
unemployment, poverty, and growth if it was not for the
drought that hit the country."

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"FROM BAD TO WORSE"
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4. (C) World Food Program (WFP) Country Representative
Muhannad Hadi and Action Against Hunger-Spain (ACF) Head of
Mission Lucia Oliveira underscored the continuing impact of
the drought in the northeast during recent meetings with
Emboffs. Having just returned from a three-day visit to the
region, Hadi described the humanitarian situation in the
drought-stricken governorates as "going from bad to worse."
He said the trip reinforced his conviction that migrants are
coming back to the region (ref A),drawn by encouraging
rainfall over recent months. While Hadi confirmed that
fields are noticeably greener in the areas he visited, he
acknowledged starkly that WFP "can't meet the needs of those
returning," given the organization's struggle even to attract
sufficient funds to feed its target population of 300,000
individuals.


5. (C) WFP Deputy Country Director Silvana Giuffrida
expressed cautious optimism about a strong wheat harvest this
year, but emphasized both the continued immediate need to
feed the affected population through the summer harvest
season and the longer-term need for assistance in overcoming
four years of catastrophic drought. In a vignette
demonstrating the serious economic and social consequences of

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the crisis, Giuffrida recounted a conversation she had with a
mother who married off two of her daughters early because she
could no longer afford to feed them. Her son had also
departed six months earlier with other migrants from the
village to find work in Lebanon and has not been seen or
heard from since. "When I asked how old he was, I expected
her to say 15 or 16," Giuffrida said. "But he was only nine
years old."


6. (C) Oliveira, who lives and works in Hassakeh, drew a
similar picture as Hadi and Giuffrida during a January 27
meeting. Oliveira said that pastures and farmland are
"sprouting" after much-needed rain, but tremendous
humanitarian needs continue to persist in the region. She
added that malnutrition rates among Iraqi refugees in
northeast Syria (the population targeted by ACF's projects in
the area) are not especially high but that ACF's assessments
have identified higher levels of low-calorie consumption and
anemia. Oliveira judges that these problems are mirrored
among the regional Syrian population, and usually in greater
severity.

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HOPING FOR A U.S.-LED DOMINO EFFECT
--------------


7. (C) Hadi confessed to growing frustration with the funding
of the current WFP appeal. The $22.3 million Emergency
Response launched in November has thus far received only $5.3
million from donors, though Hadi announced that a further $2
million from European Commission Humanitarian Aid (ECHO)
appears to be imminent. (NOTE: Contacts from the EU
Delegation in Damascus confirmed Hadi's statement, but noted
that the donation has not been finalized yet. END NOTE.)
When asked when WFP might be forced to decide between cutting
the target number of beneficiaries or cutting food rations,
Hadi responded "right now." WFP currently has sufficient
funds to cover 240,000 beneficiaries for food distribution
scheduled to begin in February, 60,000 fewer than intended.
For the second food distribution in March/April, the
shortfall is even larger: even with the expected funds from
ECHO, WFP would only have enough resources to feed 150,000
individuals.


8. (C) In light of the funding shortfall, Hadi declared that
"we are at a critical point." Citing the opinion of WFP
officials in Rome, he asserted that no further donations
would likely be forthcoming unless the United States steps
forward with a contribution which could spark a "domino
effect." Giuffrida added that even a "symbolic" U.S.
donation could not only inject new life into the WFP appeal,
but also -- based on her frequent interactions with SARG
officials -- could "go a long way" politically for U.S.-Syria
relations. Both officials emphasized more than once that
they would welcome the opportunity to bring a U.S. embassy
representative on a future trip to the region to witness the
humanitarian situation first hand.


9. (C) Hadi (please protect) revealed that the rebranding of
the current WFP appeal as an "emergency" -- previously a
redline term for the SARG -- had much to do with the United
States. He explained that over a period of several months
last year, his conversations with SARG officials revealed
lessening suspicion of U.S. motives under the Obama
administration. Hadi believes this more relaxed outlook
permitted the SARG to lower its ideological guard and be more
frank about the severity of the situation in the
drought-affected areas.


10. (C) COMMENT: The statements by Dardari and SARG
participants at the public forum days later demonstrated a
newfound willingness to discuss more openly the economic and
social challenges posed by the drought; however, publicly
acknowledging the scale of migration from the northeast is
still considered taboo. Moreover, Dardari's comments are
also likely an effort to deflect dissatisfaction with the
country's economic performance away from himself, the focal
point of much public ire.


11. (C) COMMENT, cont: Giuffrida's allusion to a "symbolic"
donation implies that WFP may anticipate that any U.S.
contribution would be well below the $10 million requested
last month. Nonetheless, her contention that a U.S. donation
would go "a long way politically " probably overstates the

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significance the SARG would attach to such a gesture, though
it could serve as a potential confidence-building step in
U.S.-SARG engagement. END COMMENT.


HUNTER