POLITICAL ROUNDUP

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SUBJECT: POLITICAL ROUNDUP

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As Danes return from the Christmas/New Year
holidays, reactions to the Prime Minister's New Year address range
from lukewarm to mocking, depending on the political leaning of the
commentator. The pundits' chief preoccupation is increasingly to
speculate about the cabinet reshuffle that is widely expected before
long. END SUMMARY.

DANISH POLITICS RETURNING TO NORMAL
--------------

2.(SBU) Following the dramatic and exhausting COP-15 and the
Christmas/New Year holidays, Danish politics is returning to normal.
A still tired-looking PM Rasmussen turned his attention to the
domestic audience with a series of TV interviews, admitting that the
COP-15 outcome could have been better and that the "artistic
impression" of the performance's final hours was not impressive,
while insisting that the Danish Government could not be blamed for
the outcome. These interviews were followed by more informal
appearances, accompanied by wife Solrun on both national TV
networks' 2009-in-Review shows.


3. (SBU) Pia Kjaersgaard, leader of the Danish People's Party (DPP),
whose support is indispensable to the ruling coalition, used a
December 30 interview in the daily Berlingske Tidende to urge the PM
to focus on the domestic political scene and use his (customary) New
Year's address to outline the Government's direction and "show the
Danes who he is. " She also stressed the need for a cabinet
reshuffle.


4. (SBU) Several commentators also raised expectations for the PM's
New Year address. Several surveys presented on the front pages
December 31 also highlighted the need for a sharper profile for the
PM and the Government: a Gallup cabinet rating in Berlingske showed
the PM's personal approval rating up from 44% a year ago to 56%, but
twelve of the other 18 cabinet members fell in the ratings,
especially Deputy PM and Conservative leader Lene Espersen (down
from 66 to 51). Equally serious, a Jyllands-Posten
"Ramboell/Analyse Danmark" survey indicated that less than a third
of the voters find that the PM has laid out a "clear political
vision, " and almost one fourth expressed no opinion. Even fewer
perceive shadow PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt as having a clear
political vision. Thorning-Schmidt (leader of the largest
opposition party, the SDP) has been notably absent from the
end-of-year political debate. Her husband (son of Lord Kinnock,
former leader of the British Labour Party) celebrated his 40th
birthday January 1, and that may have been a distraction for her.

LOW-KEY NEW YEAR ADDRESSES
--------------


5. (SBU) Queen Margrethe II's New Year's Eve address is a cherished
tradition; nearly all Danes stop what they are doing and
watch/listen. It is supposed to be devoid of political content, but
in past years it has contained moral or ethical signals. Not so
this year - a reminder that her speech is inspired and vetted by the
PM's Office. The Queen stressed that the new economic situation
makes it even more important that we appreciate and assist Denmark's
youth, but also warned against excessive "youth fixation" among the
older generations, and more respect and appreciation for the
experience and wisdom that come with age. Most controversial was
the Queen's appreciation for all involved in making COP-15 possible,
especially her praise for the police for handling security
"responsibly and in the best possible way. " Several commentators
found it curious that the Queen offered no mention of last June's
referendum giving full gender equality for heirs to the throne.


6. (SBU) The Prime Minister's customary New Year's evening speech
generally has a sizeable audience, and this was Lars Loekke
Rasmussen's first. With many pundits and politicians having raised
expectations for the speech, it disappointed those expecting a new
vision and specific political initiatives. Rasmussen decided to
play it safe, using his warmer and more personable approach on
camera to inspire trust and confidence that the country is in safe
hands with him at the helm. The PM referred to the dying decade as
the "zeroes" which brought unprecedentedly high employment in
mid-2008, but now a serious downturn. He said the worst appears to
be over, and affirmed that the Government is in control of the
situation. The tax cuts introduced in 2009 take effect this year
and will put more money in consumers' pockets. Turning briefly to
the international agenda, he paid special tribute to the Danish
troops in Afghanistan. On COP-15, he stressed that it had succeeded
- "during some hectic and not especially stylish final hours" - in
reaching "a climate understanding. "


7. (SBU) Returning to the domestic agenda, the PM argued for a
free, equal, just, respectful, tolerant and safe Denmark, which both
offers opportunities and security for those in need. "The Danish
dream unites us," the PM asserted, emphasizing the importance of the
Government's "Growth Forum" which starts working this month. His
core message was that Denmark's principal resources are human beings
and knowledge, therefore it is important to continue strengthening
the public elementary school system. Finally, he stressed that to
meet the challenges of the future, Denmark welcomes the contribution
of immigrants: "In just one generation, half a million Danes will
have a non-Western background. We need each and every one of you.
"


8. (SBU) The only policy area given specific attention in the
address was the public elementary school, just one of the PM's ten
goals for 2020 put forward at his party convention in November
(reftel).


9. (SBU) Reports late January 1 of a foiled attack on "Muhammad
cartoonist" Kurt Westergaard distracted much of the attention
usually given the PM's New Year's address. Several newspapers
pointed to the contrast between the PM's speech and Conservative
leader/Deputy PM Espersen's appeal for extensive economic reforms
(in her New Year message on the party's home page). DPP leader
Kjaersgaard offered this take on the speech: "I'm overall
positively surprised. There is some vision in it, and considering
the limited time available, he addresses important issues like
cancer treatment, gang crime and the public elementary school. "
However, she did not appreciate the PM's welcoming message to Danes
from non-Western backgrounds. These two reactions illustrate the
PM's dilemma: his Conservative coalition partners want reform while
the support party DPP does not, except when it comes to tightening
immigration laws.

OPPOSITION REACTS AS EXPECTED
--------------


10. (SBU) Reactions from the opposition were predictable, with
Socialist People's Party leader Villy Soevndal the most prominent
critic.


11. (SBU) Villy Soevndal was piqued by the PM's "rosy picture" of
COP15: "I'm not aware of anybody else, either nationally or
internationally, who agrees with Lars Loekke Rasmussen's assessment.
" His assessment of the speech in general: "It's surprising that
the PM has so little to offer. I had expected he would take the
opportunity to set a new agenda and share his vision for Denmark's
future. The only surprise is that he talks about greed growing out
of proportion - and that is impressive - on the day when enormous
tax cuts for the richest take effect. " Soevndal further
contributed to the New Year political debate with an extensive
Berlingske op-ed headlined "The Government Deceives the Danish
Values, " arguing that the Danish welfare society's values are being
eroded and the Government is responsible for declining solidarity
and growing inequality causing divisions.


12. (SBU) Representing the leading opposition party SDP, Vice Chair
Nick Haekkerup commented: "It's a speech that probably fits well
with how most Danes feel on January 1: without energy, initiative
or zest. The PM leally missed the chance to profile himself, and
the speech is devoid of concrete content showing the Danes where he
plans to take our society. "


13. (SBU) Margrethe Vestager, leader of the third opposition party,
the Social Liberals, offered this assessment of the speech: "It was
a sympathetic and smart speech - but weak. Many, many words of
sympathy for the friendly society threatened from the outside. It's
clever - all problems come from the outside. " She raised serious
questions about the PM's plans for improving reading qualifications
among the youngest in the public elementary schools.

JANUARY AGENDA AND RESHUFFLE SPECULATION
--------------


14. (SBU) Except for the Climate Minister and the PM being summoned
by the parliamentary opposition for consultations and follow-up on
COP-15, the political agenda appears rather empty until the PM's
late-January meetings to discuss the future of the Danish public
elementary school. But the left-wing opposition will almost
certainly accuse the Government of implementing irresponsible tax
cuts and not doing enough to address the growing public deficit and
unemployment.


15. (SBU) Undoubtedly the favorite preoccupation of political
pundits will be speculation about the timing and extent of a cabinet
reshuffle. Taking as its starting point a Megafon poll conducted
December 15-16 showing that 21% of voters want Justice Minister (and
key Conservative Party figure) Brian Mikkelsen out of the
Government, the daily Politiken Sunday offered an elaborate feature
predicting an extensive reshuffle within the next few months. Much
speculation centered on whether Lene Espersen intends to move to the
Foreign Ministry. Politiken further predicted that the
Conservatives would bring in new ministers from outside the
parliament, while the PM's own Venstre (Liberal Party) would recruit
from within the parliament. The most likely ministers to lose
their jobs, according to the newspaper, are Science and Technology
Minister Helge Sander, Development Cooperation Minister Ulla
Toernaes, Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Eva Kjer Hansen,
and Refugees, Immigration and Integration Minister Birthe Roenn
Hornbech, who also holds the Ecclesiastical Affairs portfolio. We
can expect many more speculations until the reshuffle actually
happens.

MCCULLEY