SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.5

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000011

C O R R E C T E D COPY - ADDED PASSING INSTRUCTIONS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INSB

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TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM PTER EAID MOPS CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: ELECTIONS UPDATE NO.5

REF: A. COLOMBO 7

B. 2009 COLOMBO 1152

C. 2009 COLOMBO 1145

D. 2009 COLOMBO 1139

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Classified By: AMBASSADOR PATRICIA A. BUTENIS. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D)

TNA Announces Support for Fonseka
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1. (C) TNA Leader R. Sampanthan announced late afternoon on
January 6 that the TNA would support Fonseka in the
presidential election. A written statement by Sampanthan
outlining the decision focused almost exclusively on
President Rajapaksa, ending by saying it was important to
defeat him, and this could be done by voting for Fonseka. A
total of 18 TNA Members of Parliament (MPs) were reported in
attendance at the news conference. Ambassador is meeting
late on January 7 with Sampanthan, and Post will report on
this meeting via Septel.

Ambassador Hosts Elections-Monitor
Briefing for Chiefs of Mission
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2. (C) Ambassador hosted a briefing for approximately 20
Heads of Mission on the evening of January 6, with
presentations and a question and answer session with
representatives from the three main domestic elections
monitoring organizations, CMEV, CAFE and PAFFREL. (Note:
The USG through USAID is providing financial support for all
three organizations for this presidential election. End
Note.) The main points raised by the monitoring groups
included numerous violations of elections law by the
government, including misuse of government property,
employees, and state media. They reported higher levels of
violence than in recent past elections, with a concentration
in the Hambantota area in the South, and said they expected
violence to increase further as the election date approached.
They said they were encouraged by some steps taken by the
Elections Commissioner in cracking down on campaign sign
violations and illegal transferring of civil authorities, but
the power of the state to impact the elections remained very
strong. When asked by one Head of Mission what the
diplomatic community could do to support a free and fair
election, all three groups said they should bolster the
Elections Commissioner and encourage him to exercise his
powers and keep taking an active and forceful role in the
campaign. The representative from CMEV, Paikiasothy
Saravanamuttu, also the director of Centre for Policy
Alternatives, said he felt that a groundswell of support for
"change", could indeed lead to a Fonseka victory.

Fonseka Manifesto
--------------

3. (C) The Fonseka campaign released what it called the
Vishvasaneeya Venasak, or Fonseka Manifesto, at a press event
in Colombo on January 7. A multi-page, glossy color
brochure, it outlines in very western-sounding, almost
Obama-esque campaign language what Fonseka plans to achieve
if elected. "Believable change" is the underlying theme,
with promises of an end to corruption, and the citing of
academic estimates on how much corruption has cost the Sri
Lankan economy. Additional promises are made for ethnic
reconciliation, a more democratic society, a free media, and
an end to the "white van" culture of disappearances and
extra-judicial executions. Contacts within the campaign have
told Post they are printing the brochure in all three
languages and plan to distribute it widely.

A-9 open 24 hours a day
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4. (C) The government announced the A-9 highway from Vavuniya

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to Jaffna would now be open for private vehicle travel 24
hours a day. Travel had previously been restricted at night.

Batticaloa Mayor declares for Fonseka?
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5. (C) A contact in the East told Post on January 7 that the
Mayor of Batticaloa, an outspoken and nominally TMVP official
who was previously rumored to have been married to Douglas
Devananda, would announce she was supporting Fonseka in the
election. Some observers have said that though top TMVP
officials may say they are supporting the President, TMVP
voters on the ground are likely to vote for Fonseka.

Currency regulations changed for Rajapaksas?
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6. (C) The government changed currency regulations several
days ago, allowing Sri Lankan citizens to invest money in
banks overseas. While this may be in keeping with general
principles of economic liberalization, one contact told Post
this move was taken primarily to allow the Rajapaksas to move
their personal fortune overseas in the event they lost the
election. This is likely to be pure speculation, but gives
an indication of the sorts of rumors flowing around the
political scene of Colombo.
BUTENIS