OUR MOLDOVA ALLIANCE ON VERGE OF SPLIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000009

C O R R E C T E D COPY (DECL ADDED)

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/UMB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2020
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID PINR MD
SUBJECT: OUR MOLDOVA ALLIANCE ON VERGE OF SPLIT

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Classified by: Charge d'Affaires Marcus Micheli
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Our Moldova Alliance (AMN),
one of the four parties of the ruling Alliance for
European Integration (AIE),is on the verge of a
schism following a heated December 12 party
congress. Though AMN Chairman (and Deputy
Parliament Speaker) Serafim Urechean retained his
post, a faction supporting party Deputy Chair
Veaceslav Untila left the hall in protest. Untila
told the Ambassador on December 16 that his group
would split, but promised that he would continue
to support the Alliance -- which currently has 53
members in the 101-seat Parliament -- while
attempting to attract smaller non-parliamentary
parties to a new political force to compete in the
next parliamentary elections. A schism within the
AMN may signal the death knell of that party,
which is has been plummeting in the polls. End
Summary.

Fireworks at AMN Party Congress
--------------


2. (SBU) The AMN convened its party congress on
December 12 to elect a new Chairman. Urechean was
initially the only candidate, but Deputy Chair
Veacheslav Untila, calling for stronger party
leadership, put forth his own name. Delegates
squabbled over whether to vote by secret ballot --
Untila supporting and Urechean opposing -- but in
the end, 260 of 423 party representatives backed
Untila's proposal.


3. (SBU) However, a dispute continued over voting
process and procedures. Representatives of the
two camps scuffled on the floor of the hall,
exchanging accusations of corruption and
dictatorship in the party, with the dissenters
being accused of acting in the interests of the
Communist Party. Untila then declared he would
not participate in the vote and left the hall,
accompanied by some 100 supporters, including
Iurie Colesnic, another party Deputy Chair, and
Sergiu Baltaga, leader of the Party's Youth
Organization.


4. (SBU) After the dissenters departed, Urechean
was re-elected as Chairman. Key AMN leaders, such
as Deputy Prime Minister Osipov, Minister of
Agriculture Cosarciuc, Minister of Education
Bujor, Minister of IT and Telecommunications
Oleinic, and Chairman of the Parliament's Legal
Committee Plesca, supported him. In his
acceptance speech, Urechean promised not to
persecute his opponents, who he predicted would
"change their minds after a night of reflections."

Urechean Calm After Stormy Congress...
--------------


5. (C) In a pre-congress December 2 with the
Ambassador, Urechean had expressed concern that
Prime Minister Filat had been trying to lure
Untila into a "murky partnership" in order to
wrest control of the AMN. Urechean said at the
time that if Untila took over, he would merge AMN
with Filat's Liberal Democratic Party.


6. (C) However, in a December 14 meeting with the
Ambassador, Urechean downplayed the significance
of dissent at the congress, claiming that "nothing
really happened." He said it was natural for his
leadership to be challenged; this was part of the
democratic process. He vowed to try to improve
relations with Untila, who he said would not be
dismissed as head of the AMN parliamentary
faction. (Note: However, Urechean also said that
if Untila wanted to leave the party, he could.)

...But Warns PM's Meddling Could Threaten Alliance
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Nonetheless, Urechean warned ominously that
if Untila's move had been coordinated with Filat,
this would "end the Alliance." He said that he
had talked to Filat about the issue, and that
Filat had admitted "holding discussions" with
Untila, but claimed that he had never promised
anything to Untila. (Note: In response to the

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Ambassador's further queries, Urechean first said
he thought it was "not possible" that Filat would
try to undermine him, but then said he could not
be sure.)

Untila Plans New Party
--------------


8. (C) In a December 16 meeting, Untila explained
to the Ambassador that after the last opinion poll
showed only 1.2 percent support for AMN, he had
become convinced that a leadership change was
necessary. Urechean, with whom his relations had
"always been tense," did not seem to understand
this. Untila said he had a "moral right" to be
party leader, and that he was supported by "nine
out of 14 party raion (county) chairs and 21 out
of 37 local chairs." 180 delegates had left the
congress with him. Untila also said he would have
beaten Urechean if the congress election -- which
he described as "a circus" -- had been "properly
organized."


9. (C) Untila said he would challenge the vote
with the Ministry of Justice. "So far" he was
still in the AMN, but was planning to leave,
taking his supporters, including the raion
chairmen, with him. Untila also assured the
Ambassador that he would stick with the Alliance,
even if his group split. He said he would attempt
to merge with several small, extra-parliamentary
parties in advance of the next elections.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) AMN is the weakest link in the Alliance
for European Integration. The party, once a
leading force while in the opposition, has been in
a steep decline, with recent opinion polls showing
that it will not clear the five percent hurdle to
enter Parliament in the event of early elections
next year. Untila's departure -- which appears
highly likely -- will deal a further blow to the
AMN. Not only may Untila take some of the party's
youth leaders and its regional heavyweights, but
he is also one of party's principal financial
sponsors.


11. (C) But while the split will further weaken
the AMN, it should not affect the stability of the
government as long as Untila's MPs continue to
vote with their Alliance partners, as is expected.
(Note: It is unclear at this point how many AMN
MPs would follow Untila should he leave the party.
End Note) Potentially more serious is the strain
in relations between Urechean, who has tended to
back former Alliance presidential candidate Marian
Lupu in Lupu's disputes with the PM, and Filat.
However, at present Urechean appears uncertain
what role, if any, Filat played, and in his
weakened state has no current alternative to
supporting the current government and PM.

MICHELI