KAREN STATE UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000016

SIPDIS

GENEVA FOR RMA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/19/2020
TAGS: PREL PHUM PREF MOPS MARR BM TH
SUBJECT: KAREN STATE UPDATE

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
Summary and Comment

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1. (C) According to the Karen National Union (KNU),which
continues its armed struggle against Burma's military regime, it
has agreed on the terms of a defensive military alliance with
two other armed groups - the Kachin Independence Army (KIA-a
ceasefire group) and Chin National Army. Talks aimed at
expanding the pact to include other groups are on-going. We can
also confirm that a DRL-funded health clinic in Karen State was
entirely burned down in a recent attack. According to our
contacts, attacks during January and February have displaced
4,000 Karen, who are now in hiding on the Burma side of the
border. Unlike past years, our contacts have not observed any
large-scale Burma Army troop movements in Karen State. They
attribute this to what they claim is a focus within the Burmese
regime and military on planning for the upcoming elections. End
Summary and Comment.



Defensive Alliance Agreed

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2. (C) According to the KNU's head of intelligence Isaac Po,
who recently traveled to China with other ethnic leaders, the
KNU, KIA, and CNA have agreed on the terms of a defensive
military alliance. Po stated the alliance is not designed to be
offensive in nature, but he did not rule out the possibility of
the groups working together against Burma Army targets. He also
hinted that the alliance could lead to broader political
cooperation, though not in the very short term. According to
Po, KIA leaders he met in China told him the Army has 20,000
troops adequately armed (Embassy Rangoon notes KIA strength is
usually estimated around 6,000 troops.) , and could recruit an
additional 10,000 if necessary.




3. (C) Po told us he also travelled to Shan state to meet with
leaders of armed groups. He said many of them discussed the
possibility of joining the alliance among the KNU, CNA and KIA
during Shan National Day celebrations February 4-6, but did not
reach an agreement. Po said he hopes to hold more talks with
the Shan about this on an as yet unspecified date.



What's Going on in Karen State?

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4. (SBU) Separately, we spoke to Free Burma Rangers (FBR)
contacts, who told us that attacks in January and February by
the Burma Army and DKBA (Democratic Karen Buddhist Army - a KNU
splinter group allied with the Burma Army) have resulted in
4,000 IDPs, all of whom remain in hiding on the Burma side of
the border. The attacks are taking place in northeast
Nyanglabin District, according to FBR. FBR also told us that
TBBC (The Thailand-Burma Border Consortium),COERR (Catholic
Organization for Emergency Relief and Reconstruction),and
Partners (A Chiang Mai-based NGO) were providing relief to the
IDPs.




5. (SBU) FBR also confirmed that a health clinic in Karen State
was entirely burned down on February 8. (Note: We understand
the clinic received funding from DRL.) An FBR team at the site
reported that the clinic in question was co-located with the
headquarters of a KNLA battalion. The attacking troops found
and seized a stash of medicine medics had succeeded in removing
from the clinic before it was destroyed, according to FBR. No
casualties were reported at the clinic as a result of the
attack, but the clinic's staff and the FBR medics working with
them report a shortage of medicine and other supplies. (Note:
Embassy Rangoon learned from Alan Saw U, coordinator of the
Karen Development Network, that the attack appeared to be in
retaliation for a surprise "hit-and-run" attack by the KNU on BA

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troops that had occurred a few days earlier. Following the
KNU-initiated attack, the BA mobilized approximately 200 troops
and looked for the KNU troops. Alan Saw U reported that when
the BA troops could not find the KNU troops, they attacked the
easiest target they could find, which happened to be the mobile
health clinic. End note.)




6. (SBU) According to both the KNU and FBR, the Burma Army has
not executed any large-scale troop movements during this dry
season - a break with past practice. Nonetheless, small-scale
attacks, pillaging and burning continue, particularly in
Nyanglabin District, they assert. According to FBR, the Burma
Army is now delegating attacks in certain areas entirely to the
DKBA, and is employing the same tactic in parts of Shan State.
In one incident on February 17, the DKBA crossed the Thai border
and killed a Thai citizen of Karen dissent in Nong BUa village,
Tha Song Yang district, allegedly over a business dispute,
according to FBR. The commander of the local army ranger unit
confirmed the murder to Embassy Bangkok, and stated that the
three DKBA soldiers involved fled across the border.




7. (C) FBR also reports that the KNLA's Third Brigade is
increasingly exercising control over the gold trade in its area
of operation. FBR contacts opined that the KNLA is using the
proceeds to purchase weapons in Thailand, but could not confirm
this. FBR also reported that approximately 200 fighters have
defected from the KNU/KNLA Peace Council (a ceasefire group)
back to the KNLA over the past three months.




8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassies Bangkok and
Rangoon.
MORROW