DUBAI WOES REVERBERATE IN MOROCCO

C O N F I D E N T I A L CASABLANCA 000009

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA AND NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2020
TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON PGOV PREL AE MO
SUBJECT: DUBAI WOES REVERBERATE IN MOROCCO

REF: 09 CASABLANCA 166 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Consul General Millard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The net value of United Arab Emirates
(UAE) foreign direct investment in Morocco reached USD 606
million in 2008, a staggering increase from the USD 15
million invested in 2002. To fuel this expansion, the UAE
employed a calculated strategy, which entailed pursuing
long-term investment contracts with some of Morocco's key
institutions and forming joint ventures with influential
and strategic partners like the King's financial holding
group. Nevertheless, according to the preliminary data
from Morocco's trade office, UAE's investment in Morocco
decreased by more than 80 percent from the previous year to
USD 74 million. Some Dubai and Abu Dhabi real estate
development plans have been postponed indefinitely, while
others have been cancelled outright. The Emirati
withdrawal has angered the Palace and put future
partnerships in jeopardy, said a close confidant of the
King. End Summary.

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The Golden Years
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2. (SBU) From 2002 to 2008, Morocco and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) enjoyed a robust investment partnership.
The net value of UAE foreign direct investment (FDI) to
Morocco totaled USD 15 million in 2002. Six years later,
net FDI had reached USD 606 million, second only to
France. During this time, Emirati investment in Morocco
was characterized by a set of high value real estate and
tourism development projects. Companies such as Emaar
Properties, Dubai Holding Group, and the Abu Dhabi based Al
Qudra, signed dozens of memoranda of understanding with
quasi-public and private Moroccan companies to develop golf
and ski facilities and Riviera-style residential and
touristic resorts stretching from the Atlas mountains to
the Atlantic Coast. "UAE investment was a dependable and
long-term source of growth for Morocco, injecting capital,
expanding market access, and contributing to mutual
prosperity", said Driss Alaoui Mdaghri, the President of
Morocco's Economic Intelligence Unit.

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The Emirati Strategy
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3. (C) To fuel its expansion in Morocco, the UAE employed
a dual strategy. First, it pursued long-term contracts
with some key Moroccan institutions. For example, Dubai
Crown Prince and UAE Defense Minister Mohammed bin Rashid
Al Maktoum signed a 10-year agreement with the
Tangier-Mediterranean Special Agency (TMSA) relating to the
operations and commercialization of the Tangier
Mediterranean Port in the north of Morocco. In addition,
Al Qudra entered into a five-year agreement with Addoha
Group, the country's largest real estate development group,
to help Addoha meet Morocco's social housing demand.
(Reftel)


4. (C) Second, the UAE formed joint ventures with
influential partners such as Omnium Nord Africaine (ONA),
the King's financial holding company, and the Caisse de
Depot et Gestion (CDG),which manages Morocco's pension
fund. The collaboration with the palace-affiliated ONA
group, in particular, paid dividends for Emirati investors
such as Emaar Properties and Dubai Holding. Indeed, such
partnerships often resulted in mutual benefits. Ahmed
Laaboudi of the Moroccan Center for Economic Analysis told
EconOff that Gulf investors seek out partnerships with ONA
as they believe such a relationship will help them
circumvent Morocco's bureaucratic red tape and also secure
their investment. As for ONA, partnering with a
world-renowned real estate development firm like Emaar
Properties means collaborating with a highly experienced
business partner, said Abdelmjid Tazlaoui, the Vice
President of ONA's real estate arm and a close confidant of
the King.


5. (C) Nonetheless, Emirati business ties to the Palace
have drawn criticism. Some complain that the relationship
has been used unfairly to exclude competitors in Morocco's
real estate sector. These critics argue that the
relationship is too close for comfort, often resulting in
nontransparent tender processes. Baha Eddine Shanableh, a
successful real estate developer, cites discounted property
rates and illegal rezoning of agricultural land as examples
of how Emirati firms have grossly benefited from their
proximity to the Palace.

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Tough Times Ahead
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6. (C) According to preliminary data from Morocco's trade
office, the net value of UAE foreign direct investment in
Morocco dropped to USD 74 million in 2009, a decrease of 83
percent from the previous year. During the past year, the
partnership between Dubai companies impacted by the global
financial crisis, such as Emaar Properties and Dubai
Holding, with Morocco's ONA and CDG, have become strained.
Some real estate development projects have not moved past
the initial phase, while others have been cancelled
outright. For example, Sama Dubai, a subsidiary of Dubai
Holding Group and a 50 percent stakeholder in the USD 250
million AMWAJ development project near Rabat, recently
announced that it could no longer finance the project.
Dubai Holding has also withdrawn its investment from the
Casablanca Marina development and is expected to cancel its
plans to build Rabat's pedestrian coastline. Moreover,
Emaar Properties has put its plan to build a USD 10 million
ski resort in Morocco's Atlas Mountains on hold
indefinitely.

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A Not-So-Happy King
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7. (C) As Dubai investors withdrew from a host of
development projects slated for 2009 and 2010, Morocco's
quasi-public and private companies were placed in an
awkward financial predicament as they struggled to find
alternative financing. Tazlaoui confided that "UAE
withdrawal will be very costly both financially and
politically". The King was annoyed by the abrupt manner in
which UAE firms handled their financial capital exodus from
Morocco, he added.
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Comment
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8. (C) Despite these recent setbacks, which gave rise to
speculation that the golden era of UAE investment in
Morocco was drawing to a close, we believe Morocco's
involvement with the UAE is likely to resume growth in the
future. However, partners such as ONA will become more
vigilant in ensuring that they can get a fair deal from
these joint ventures. In the view of ONA and other major
players, both Morocco and the UAE have much to gain from
continued cooperation.

MILLARD