Widespread Support for "Chavismo Lite" in Lara State

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2035/02/12
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: Widespread Support for "Chavismo Lite" in Lara State

CLASSIFIED BY: Robin D. Meyer, Political Counselor, DOS, POL; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: On February 3 and 4, Emboffs visited the city of
Barquisimeto in western Lara State, where "Chavista lite" Governor
Henri Falcon is widely praised across the political spectrum for
his administrative efficiency and relatively moderate political
stance. Business leaders noted Falcon's business-friendly
approach, but nevertheless expressed concern about their future and
openly wondered "how many years we have left." Falcon's popularity
has made him a target for criticism and threats by President
Chavez. Falcon's aides privately suggested that he was "keeping
his options open" regarding his party affiliation, but said that he
was loathe to be seen with Ambassador Duddy or U.S. Embassy
personnel lest he be ousted from the ruling United Socialist Party
of Venezuela (PSUV). The political opposition in Lara appears
committed to finding unity candidates for the September National
Assembly (AN) elections, but still has no electoral strategy or
message. They admit that many opposition supporters voted for
Falcon in previous elections. End Summary.



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Background on Lara State

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2. (SBU) Lara State, in northwestern Venezuela, is regarded as
the artisanal and music capital of the country. Barquisimeto, with
a population of about 2 million residents, is the third largest
city in Venezuela and has become a tourist destination because of
its nearby mountainsides and many festivals. The state is
primarily agricultural, but it is also home to El Rey chocolates,
the Pomar vineyards, and a number of American companies. In
November 2008, then-Mayor of Barquisimeto Henri Falcon won the Lara
governorship with 73 percent of the vote (versus opposition
candidate Pedro Pablo Alcantara's 15 percent).



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FALCON WALKS A FINE LINE

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3. (C) On February 3, Victor Silva, Falcon's liaison to the
Miraflores Presidential Palace, told Emboffs that Falcon would have
liked to have met with Emboffs, but felt constrained by the ongoing
attacks against him by President Chavez, including Chavez' recent
threat to take over the state police for not using force to quell
student protests. (Note: Silva had previously told Emboff that
Falcon would not be able to meet with Ambassador Duddy during his
planned trip to Barquisimeto for the same reasons. End Note.)
When Falcon entered the restaurant where Emboffs were meeting with
Silva and Carmen Cecilia Arevalo, who works for both Falcon and the
Barquisimeto mayor's office, Silva warned that Falcon could not be
seen talking publicly with representatives of "the empire" or "he
would be expelled from the party the next day." (Note: Falcon was
expelled briefly from the PSUV in 2008 for announcing his
gubernatorial candidacy without first seeking Chavez's blessing.
End Note.)




4. (C) Silva said that Falcon was "keeping his options open" in
terms of his political affiliation, but noted that criticism from
Chavez could affect Falcon's popularity in other parts of the
country (see septel for report that Falcon is in talks with the
"Patria para Todos" party). Silva noted that Falcon's 90 percent
approval rating, which has surpassed Chavez' in Lara, represents
support from both sides of the political spectrum and reflects his
reputation for being "open." However, this popularity has created

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enemies within Chavismo, including Minister of Public Works
Diosdado Cabello and Luis Reyes Reyes, the newly appointed Minister
of Health, who served as governor in Lara while Falcon was mayor.
While Falcon has the support of the state's Chavistas, Silva noted
that they were still Chavistas whose principal loyalty was toward
Chavez. Silva repeatedly asserted that he was a "Chavista of the
heart," but cautiously criticized some of Chavez' actions as
misguided, ill-advised, or poorly executed, particularly his
attacks against the United States and his close ties to Cuba.
Silva viewed Chavez' attacks on the U.S. "empire" as part of a
strategy to create an external enemy to shore up his domestic
support. Both Silva and Arevalo characterized the PSUV Mayor of
Barquisimeto Amalia Saez as a "radical" at odds with Falcon,
although they said that she was virtually a political unknown and
owed her November 2008 election to Falcon's personal endorsement.



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FALCON, THE GOOD ADMINISTRATOR

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5. (C) Arevalo, who worked with Falcon when he was mayor of
Barquisimeto (2000-08),said that the 48-year-old Falcon - a lawyer
and ex-military officer - had earned his reputation as an efficient
administrator by putting together a team of experienced technocrats
and encouraging creative solutions to local problems. She said he
had worked on a number of beautification projects for the city,
including creating recreational trails and "green zones," helping
apartment residents to paint the exterior of high-rise buildings
that are visible along the major highway entering the city, and
landscaping the major boulevards that crisscross the city. Arevalo
noted that Falcon had worked to attract industries and commercial
projects; in notable contrast to Caracas, Emboffs saw a number of
high-end hotels that had been built in the past few years, several
of them attached to a giant Sambil shopping mall that appeared to
be thriving. Nevertheless, Arevalo admitted that crime,
unemployment, and electricity shortages were critical problems in
the city. Electricity rationing had begun in December, with
planned electricity cuts several hours each day. Arevalo added
that Falcon had a difficult budget situation because, as governor,
he had to rely on funds transferred from the central government,
whereas the mayoral budget comes from local taxes and makes
Barquisimeto relatively autonomous.



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OPPOSITION UNITED, BUT TO WHAT END?

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6. (C) On February 4, Emboffs met with the local branch of the
opposition unity table ("mesa de unidad"),which included
representatives from a dozen regional and national opposition
parties, ranging from the left (MAS, Podemos) to the right (COPEI),
as well as from civil society and student groups. The group
highlighted high crime rates, poor public services, and a lack of
jobs for the area's large student population as the key problems in
Lara. They acknowledged that they faced less "political
persecution" in Lara than in other states, but characterized Falcon
as a "soft" Chavista who lacked "independence" and was too
"submissive" to Chavez. They nonetheless acknowledged that many in
the opposition had voted for Falcon.




7. (C) The student representatives told Emboffs that Falcon had
met with student leaders regarding their accusations of police

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brutality during their marches protesting the closure of RCTV - but
only after Chavez had threatened to intercede in the Lara state
police for Falcon's failure to quell the protests. The students
complained that the PSUV and militant "Bolivarian Circles" had
infiltrated their protest movement and even entered the homes of
several marchers and destroyed private property. In their meeting
with Falcon, the students said they had asked him to resolve the
security situation in the state and to compensate people who had
been hurt or whose property had been destroyed; Falcon had pledged
to address both issues.




8. (C) With regards to the September 26 elections for the
National Assembly (AN),the "unity table" representatives stressed
the theme of "balance of power" within the AN. The unity table was
still discussing the process of candidate selection and had not yet
decided whether they would be able to reach consensus on all the
candidates or would require primaries. The opposition
representatives noted that the gerrymandered electoral districts
would help Chavismo "but not as much as they think it will." When
pressed about the opposition's message for the electoral campaign,
the representatives' response was simply a pledge for "unity."
They noted that the state had only had Chavista representatives in
the AN since 2005 and that the PSUV would likely pour a lot of
money into the state ahead of the elections to ensure continued
voter support.



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CHURCH PRAISES FALCON'S PROFESSIONALISM

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9. (C) On February 4, Catholic priests who minister to the
western half of Barquisimeto said that crime was the number one
problem affecting the city. Unlike the neighboring state of
Merida, however, violence was not the result of pro-government
militant groups, such as the "Tupamaros." The priests complained
about the culture of clientelism, which Chavismo encourages. They
contended that the social missions barely functioned except when
they were revitalized in the run-up to elections. As for Falcon,
they said that, as mayor, he had worked hard to create an image as
business-friendly, but had also spent a considerable amount of time
in the poor barrios. They lauded his team as "professionals"
valued for their experience rather than just political loyalty.
Falcon's effective tenure as mayor had made him popular in the
neighboring states of Portuguesa and Yaracuy. The priests were
dismissive of the local opposition.



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BUT BUSINESS IS NOT GOOD

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10. (C) On February 4, Econoff met with several businesses leaders
in Lara, including the head of the industrial chamber, the real
estate chamber, and the local chapter of the Venezuelan-American
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VENAMCHAM). According to this
group, Lara is an economic bellwether for the rest of Venezuela
because of its mix of agriculture and industry. They agreed that
Henri Falcon was supportive of industry and business-compared to
other Chavista politicians-but they were extremely pessimistic
about Lara's economic future. "We are talking about how many years
we have left," said the President of VENAMCHAM in Barquisimeto,
Jose Vicente Rios (protect).

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11. (C) These representatives from various business sectors
complained that expropriations and land invasions had reduced
agricultural output and land value in Lara. A local farmers'
market now only sells imported agricultural goods. Meanwhile, the
business environment in Barquisimeto's industrial zone has
deteriorated due to capital flight, which has increased with the
risk of expropriation. They repeatedly expressed concern about the
recent reform to the Law for the Defense of the People's Access to
Goods and Services (INDEPBAIS),which the GBRV used to expropriate
the Exito hypermarket chain and close down businesses for allegedly
raising prices illegally. (See Caracas 97 for further analysis of
the Exito expropriation and the INDEPABIS law.) Noting government
plans to import thousands of cars from abroad, the owner of several
car dealerships in Lara said that the government would try to
expropriate his business to use as a distribution network, similar
to Exito's expropriation and merger into the government-run
Corporation of Socialist Markets (COMERSO).




12. (C) These business leaders said that labor relations in Lara
were not as contentious as in other states, and that tensions have
cooled even further as many of the Chavista unions have lost
credibility with employees after failing to deliver on promises to
improve working conditions. As the influence of the Chavista
unions has declined, they said that business leaders have offered
to negotiate with the unions and even provide free legal services
to help them register with the government. They said that the
labor difficulties over the past few years have been a sobering
experience for business owners, and that they have learned to treat
their workers more humanely.



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COMMENT

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13. (C) Across the board, our Lara contacts appeared impressed by
Falcon's administrative skills and attempts to occupy a less
polarized middle-ground that leaves space for dialogue and dissent.
Nevertheless, his future within Chavismo appears uncertain. While
regionally he may enjoy higher popularity than Chavez, he does not
yet have Chavez' national reach and his gubernatorial resources are
vulnerable to central government interference. With decisive
legislative elections looming in September, Chavez is likely to
have even less tolerance for dissent within his party, suggesting
that Falcon will have to fall in line with Chavismo or leave the
PSUV for good.
DUDDY