(C) Argentina: Nestor Kirchner Down, but Not Out

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000089

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2035/02/12
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON AR
SUBJECT: (C) Argentina: Nestor Kirchner Down, but Not Out

REF: BUENOS AIRES 75 AND PREVIOUS; BUENOS AIRES 61

CLASSIFIED BY: VilmaSMartinez, Ambassador, DOS, Exec; REASON: 1.4(B),
(D)


1. (C) Summary: Former President and first spouse Nestor Kirchner
(NK) is recuperating after undergoing emergency surgery for a
partially blocked carotid artery. NK underwent a carotid
endarterectomy, which involved temporarily introducing a shunt in
his artery to redirect the blood flow to the brain and past the
obstruction in order to repair the damaged artery. Argentine
medical specialists predict a rapid recovery period, but caution
that NK will need to take preventive steps, including trying to
reduce his stress levels, a tall order for this consummate
micromanager and political strategist. While NK may take his
doctors' advice and reduce his public appearances in February, we
expect to see him again in March when Congress reconvenes. Since
the surgery, the Casa Rosada has portrayed a resilient Nestor, but
some, even within his own party, perceive his political days are
numbered. Despite wishful thinking from political opponents, it is
still too early to count Nestor Kirchner out of the presidential
race in 2011. End Summary.



Nestor's Health Scare

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2. (C) The Casa Rosada, and Mission sources with direct access,
report that former President and first spouse Nestor Kirchner (NK)
is recovering well after undergoing emergency surgery for a blocked
carotid artery on February 7. NK's health setback followed several
intense political days for the First Couple due to the Central Bank
saga (ref A) and speculations that NK used insider information to
profit on the international currency market (ref B). Press reports
indicate that mid-day February 7 NK began experiencing tingling and
numbness in his left arm after exercising on the treadmill.
(According to our Regional Medical Officer, these symptoms are
symptomatic of a stroke.) NK underwent a carotid endarterectomy,
which temporarily introduced a shunt in his artery to redirect
blood flow to the brain and repair the blocked artery. After the
nearly hour-long surgery, NK remained in intensive care until late
morning February 9 and was released from the hospital February 10.
Upon leaving the hospital, a drained and pale-looking NK told
reporters that he was feeling "100 percent." The front page of
paper-of-record "La Nacion" carried a photo of NK leaving the
hospital, which prominently displayed his deep carotid scar.




3. (C) Undoubtedly, NK's health scare caused considerable stress
for the President, who is highly dependent upon NK as her principal
adviser. (The episode was also probably reminiscent for CFK of
2004 when NK, then Argentina's president, was hospitalized for
gastric hemorrhaging. At the time, there were rumors that part of
his colon was removed because cancer was detected. In October
2009, rumors resurfaced that again he had been hospitalized for
reasons varying from an irritable bowel to cardiac problems.) CFK
stayed close by his side from the moment he began exhibiting
symptoms and remained overnight at the hospital, according to press
reports. Late into the night, the President was accompanied by the
couple's two children, Maximo and Florencia, in addition to Chief
of Cabinet Anibal Fernandez, Senate President Pro Tempore Jose
Pampuro, Legal Secretary Carlos Zannini, and Foreign Minister Jorge
Taiana, according to press reports.



The Medical Take

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4. (C) The Regional Medical Officer (RMO) assesses that given NK's
relatively speedy release, it appears that his doctors addressed
the problem in time. With a mild stroke, generally there is no
long-term impairment. Nonetheless, the RMO notes that NK could
have suffered some loss of brain tissue and functioning, but it is
still too early to determine long-term damage. Local Argentine
doctors predict that NK will recover rapidly, but note that he
needs to take steps to prevent another episode, such as taking
anti-clotting medication and reducing his stress. Deputy director
of Argentina's Secretariat of Intelligence (SIDE) Francisco Larcher
told Embassy officers February 10 that NK would face several

restrictions. He said NK would need to tighten his (already
strictly controlled) dietary regimen by eliminating salt; monitor
his blood pressure; and take an aspirin daily. ("La Nacion"
reported February 8 that prior to the episode NK was known to take
multiple aspirins daily.) In addition, he will have to dial back
his exercise plan for a while, easing back into it by walking a
little each day.



Business as Usual for the Casa Rosada

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5. (C) Since the surgery, CFK and Casa Rosada spokespersons have
portrayed government activities continuing as normal and NK
recovering rapidly. To that end, the day after the surgery, CFK
made an unplanned appearance at a grocery store's inauguration.
She assured the crowd that NK was doing well and that he was in
"perfect condition" to resume leadership of the Peronist party in
March. She reportedly maintained a full agenda on February 9 and
during a Casa Rosada event that day quipped: "we have Kirchner for
a little longer" after confirming that he had been released from
intensive care. Additionally, at a February 11 public rally to
inaugurate the taxi union's new headquarters, CFK put NK's health
into soccer terms, stating: "Nestor Kirchner never left the field
nor will he leave the field; he is on the bench a few days because
he is injured."



Muted Public Reaction

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6. (C) Public reaction to NK's health scare has been muted,
perhaps as a result of early assurances from government sources
that the procedure was basic and had gone well. NK's well-wishers
were evident in large numbers, but his scare did not appear to
generate a deep non-partisan wave of sympathy or concern. There
were reports (and, from government-allied media, criticism) of
chain-mails on the Internet celebrating Kirchner's health problems
and expressing the desire that he die.



The Caged Lion

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7. (C) NK, who thrives on politics, will almost certainly be a
difficult patient. Press reports indicate that shortly after the
operation he was antsy to leave the hospital and resume his
routine. Left-leaning, government-allied "Pagina 12" described him
as feeling like a caged lion. "La Nacion" noted that after leaving
the hospital he received a "dossier" with the latest political and
economic updates. The paper notes that the joke circulating Casa
Rosada halls was "the same Nestor is back, he has started calling
everyone." SIDE deputy director Larcher, who visited him at the
hospital on February 10, told Ambassador Martinez that NK was
receiving a number of people in his hospital room. Foreign
Minister Taiana, one of the first to see NK after his surgery, told
the Ambassador that NK was recuperating and in good spirits.
Taiana said that while NK is eager to get back into the swing of
things, if he were him he would take it easy, but that is not NK's
style.




8. (C) While NK may heed his doctors' advice and maintain a low
profile in February, we can expect to see him again in March. High
on NK's agenda is attending the opening session of Congress March 1
and resuming the presidency of the Peronist party during a March 10
ceremony in Chaco province. (NK resigned from the presidency
following his slate's second place finish in Buenos Aires province
in the June 2009 midterms. He and his party followers argue that
he now can resume the presidency because his resignation was never
formally accepted by the party.)

An Uphill Battle for 2011?

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9. (C) Despite the Casa Rosada's public manifestations of NK's
resilience, the image of a physically debilitated NK appears to be
signaling to some that his political days are numbered. The
director of Banco Mariva, Enrique Antonini, told EconCouns February
9 that the business community's immediate reaction was that NK's
health episode would increase the calculation among the strong
Peronist mayors of Buenos Aires province that they cannot win with
the Kirchners in the 2011 presidential race. As a result, the
mayors will further distance themselves from the Kirchners,
Antonini predicted. Additionally, a day after the surgery, one of
NK's key challengers for the Peronist party presidential
nomination--Santa Fe Senator Carlos Reutemann--quipped to
journalists that "when they go in 2011...Argentines will be happy."
While he later said his message was directed toward General
Confederation of Labor Secretary General (and staunch Kirchner
ally) Hugo Moyano, Reutemann's comments suggest he too believes
NK's political prospects are diminishing.



Comment

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10. (C) Despite wishful thinking from the Kirchners' political
opponents, it is still too early to count Nestor Kirchner out of
the 2011 presidential race. While his political drive will
continue to test the limits of his physical capabilities, NK has a
track record of bouncing back from health scares. As long as NK
maintains his mental faculties, he will remain a force to be
reckoned with on the road to 2011.
MARTINEZ