INTRODUCTION TO JUNE 12 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

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SUBJECT: INTRODUCTION TO JUNE 12 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

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1. (U) Summary. Parliamentary elections will be held in Slovakia
on June 12. It is all but certain that Smer-Social Democracy,
the party of current Prime Minister Robert Fico, will win the
largest share of the votes. Recent opinion polls showed support
for Smer around 40 percent, while no other party has surpassed
20 percent support in the last four years. Post-election
coalition possibilities for Smer vary from more of the same to
partnership with a center-right party. Because coalition
forming will depend on post-election math, it is difficult to
predict. Slovak politics is more a competition of personalities
than ideas, however, and the leading parties are pragmatic, not
ideological. In septels over the coming months, Post will
describe the main parties, players and issues in greater detail.
End summary.




2. (U) Elections are conducted on the basis of a universal,
equal and direct electoral franchise, by means of secret ballot,
and in accordance with the principle of proportional
representation. Candidates for Parliamentary office must be
citizens of the Slovak Republic, at least twenty-one years of
age and eligible to vote on polling day, with permanent
residence in the Slovak Republic. Judges, prosecutors, public
defenders of rights, members of the Armed Forces, members of
Armed Corps, or members of the European Parliament may not run
for parliament. The territory of the Slovak Republic constitutes
a single electoral constituency.



The elections

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3. (U) Elections are held over the course of one day. Citizens
over the age of 18 may cast votes outside their city of
residence with prior notice, or by post from outside Slovakia.
Citizens choose from lists of candidates submitted by registered
political parties. These lists, not to exceed 150 names each,
are submitted to the Central Electoral Commission at least
ninety days before polling day.




4. (U) In addition to a vote for a party, each voter can also
pick up to four "preferential candidates" from the respective
party list. Thus, any candidate with at least 3,000 preferential
votes could move up the list (rank-ordered by preferential
votes),even if the party had originally put him/her towards the
bottom of the list.



Allocation of seats

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5. (U) The sum of valid votes cast on election day is divided by
151 (the number of Parliamentary seats plus one). The result of
this division rounded off to a whole number is the party's
republic electoral number. The sum of each party's votes is
divided by the republic electoral number to determine the number
of seats each party obtains. In the event the total seats thus
calculated equals 151, the party with the lowest remainder loses
a seat. If the total seats allocated equals 149, the party with
the highest remainder gains a seat.



Rules for the Campaign

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6. (U) Officially, the campaign begins 21 days before polling
day when broadcasting of (explicitly) political advertisements
may begin. Slovak public television and Slovak Radio are
obligated to set aside no more than ten hours of broadcasting
time for political advertisements, which shall be allocated to
competing parties with no single party receiving more than
thirty minutes. A further ten hours of broadcasting time is to
be set aside by the public media for discussion programs.
Licensed commercial broadcasters are not obligated to carry
political advertisements, but if they choose to do so are

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subject to the same maximum limits of thirty minutes per party
and ten hours total. Election campaigns and advertising can
continue through election day; however, poll results must not be
published after the polls open. Parties have no limits on how
much they can spend on their campaigns.



The parties

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Party acronyms:



SMER-SD -- Robert Fico's 'Direction'



SDKU-DS -- Mikulas Dzurinda's Democratic and Christian Union



HZDS-LS -- Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia



KDH -- Jan Figel's Christian Democratic Movement



SNS -- Jan Slota's Slovak National Party



SMK -- Pal Csaky's Hungarian Coalition Party



MOST-HID -- Bela Bugar's 'Bridge'



SaS -- Richard Sulik's Freedom and Solidarity Party




7. (SBU) Recent opinion polls indicate that these eight parties
will likely gain the five percent of valid votes cast necessary
to enter parliament. Smer leads the polls with nearly 40 percent
support. The main opposition party, SKDU, usually comes second
in polls with 10-15 percent support while the other parties poll
at between 4 and 10 percent. The next governing coalition is
most likely, therefore, to include Smer and two partners. The
post-election day "mathematics" of coalition formation will be
at least as important as the vote itself. There are several
possible post-election scenarios, but almost anything is
possible and Smer has so far refused to rule out cooperation
with any party.




8. (SBU) Before the current government of Smer, SNS, and HzDS
was formed in 2006, we described such a coalition as the
"nightmare scenario." Smer, by contrast, has seemed fairly
comfortable with the arrangement despite occasional grumbling
from party insiders about both partners. HZDS is viewed as more
difficult, but the more pliant SNS appears to have become a
greater liability. Corruption scandals and the nasty,
anti-Hungarian rhetoric of its party leaders, particularly
Chairman Jan Slota, have caused PM Fico international
embarrassment best demonstrated by a three-year suspension of
full membership rights in the Party of European Socialists (PES)
grouping. We have heard that Smer had to promise not to form a
new coalition with SNS in order to gain full membership in PES
last year. If other suitable partners cannot be found, however,
Fico would likely turn to HZDS and SNS again, and both would
jump at the chance.




9. (SBU) Although various parties have said publicly that they
would rule out cooperation with one or another of their
competitors, the only coalition that we find inconceivable would
be one that includes SNS and either of the two ethnic Hungarian
parties, SMK or Most-Hid. The new center-right party of
businessman Richard Sulik has said it would not go into

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coalition with Smer since the imbalance of power would make SaS
a mere puppet. Sulik is known to crave the position of Finance
Minister, however, and in a coalition that included another
center-right party we believe he would make a deal.
EDDINS