SLOVAK CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATOR ASSESSES PATH FORWARD FROM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000023

SIPDIS

OES FOR D. NELSON, K. LARSEN, AND R. KASTENBERG
EUR/CE FOR J. MOORE AND M. LIBBY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV KGHG ENRG PGOV LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAK CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATOR ASSESSES PATH FORWARD FROM
COPENHAGEN

REF: BRATISLAVA 13

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Fresh off a trip to the EU Environment
Ministers meeting in Seville this past weekend, Slovakia's lead
Climate Change negotiator Helena Princova told us that her EU
counterparts are frustrated by the results of Copenhagen and
will seek to refocus efforts to ensure continued progress in

2010. Princova told us that much informal discussion in Seville
centered around how the EU can adjust its strategy to reclaim a
leadership role in future negotiations. Princova reiterated
Slovakia's support for the Copenhagen Accord and spoke at length
about her perception of the path forward. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As reported reftel, Slovakia fully intends to both
associate itself with the Copenhagen Accord and inscribe
mitigation actions. Princova told us that as of January 19, the
EU was still uncertain whether to do so collectively or as
individual countries--she said a split has developed because
some eastern European countries, notably Poland, are concerned
about burden sharing and would like the ability to submit their
mitigation actions independently. Princova told us that she
expects the EU will ultimately act as a unit and submit an
emissions reduction target of 20% from 1990 levels. If it turns
out that EU countries associate separately, Princova told us
that Slovakia would inscribe the same 20% reduction on its own.
She told us that Spain is developing a political statement on
behalf of the EU, but that it might not be completed until after
the January 31 deadline for association with the Accord.


3. (SBU) Princova told us that the biggest surprise at
Copenhagen for her and many EU colleagues was the "increased
self-confidence" of China, India and Brazil. She described the
Seville meeting over the past weekend as somewhat introspective,
as negotiators struggled to take stock of the new geopolitical
reality and tried to determine which "new alliances need to be
built." Princova asked our impression of Russia's negotiating
strategy, saying that no one she has spoken with can identify
what Russia's aims are and commenting that the EU is very
interested in learning more.


4. (SBU) Further reflecting on Copenhagen, Princova told us that
it was a major mistake to enter such a high-level conference
without an agreed-to text. She added that there was much
discussion in Seville of organizing a "Friends of the Accord"
meeting to be held in the spring, in an effort to make further
progress before the next scheduled meetings take place in Bonn
this summer. Princova said that several in Seville were
advocating for a "more concentrated negotiation," in an effort
to avoid the paralysis that can take place when so many
negotiating partners are at the table. She told us that she
thought a smaller negotiating body would be acceptable to the
EU, but she quickly added that this would be an impossibility
due to Chinese objections. She explained that the Chinese
Ambassador to Slovakia told her shortly before Copenhagen that
any narrowing of negotiating partners would be "completely
unacceptable" to China.


5. (SBU) Looking forward, Princova told us that it will be
crucial to overcome the lack of trust that she says pervaded the
Copenhagen conference. She identified developmental aid as the
best way to accomplish this, saying that the EU and USG should
prioritize efforts to design the mechanism for such aid and get
it underway by the end of the year. Princova also mentioned
that some of her EU colleagues were advocating for making such
assistance conditional on association with the Copenhagen
Accord, with the hope that such conditionality might make some
countries think twice before acting to derail future
negotiations (COMMENT: She was referring here to the efforts of
countries such as Venezuela and Sudan that resulted in the COP
only "taking note" of the Accord. END COMMENT.)


COMMENT


6. (SBU) While Slovakia has never been particularly vocal in the
EU's internal climate change deliberations, it has always been
quick to support calls for greater action--for example, Slovakia
was prepared to endorse a 30% reduction level for EU states at
Copenhagen, although this seems to have since been taken off the
table. The Slovak government's support for strong action stems
more from perceived economic interest than actual concern about
the threat of climate change. Princova told us in December that
Slovak emissions are currently 35% below 1990 levels, and she
thinks that Slovakia would have little trouble meeting a 30%
target for 2020--something that is definitely not the case for
many of the other EU countries with which Slovak industry

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competes.
EDDINS