SCENESETTER FOR SEMEP GEORGE MITCHELL'S JANUARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000044

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV MEPP PTER PINR UNSC MARR SY IS LE
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SEMEP GEORGE MITCHELL'S JANUARY
19-20 VISIT TO LEBANON

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Embassy Beirut warmly welcomes your January
19-20 visit to Lebanon. As the country emerges from a
six-month struggle to form a new national unity government,
your meetings with President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister
Saad Hariri, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Foreign
Minister Ali Chami and UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon
(UNSCOL) Michael Williams will show that Lebanon is an
integral partner in efforts to achieve a comprehensive Middle
East Peace. Your visit to Beirut will also highlight
continued U.S. support for Lebanon's sovereignty and
stability while underscoring the state's obligation to exert
control over all of its territory. President Sleiman and PM
Hariri, in particular, will seek assurances that Middle East
peace negotiations will take into account their concerns
about Palestinian refugees resident in Lebanon. Meanwhile,
Speaker Berri will strongly encourage you to visit south
Lebanon and will lobby for Israel to restart negotiations
with Syria. UNSCOL Williams will likely express his concerns
regarding Israeli backsliding on withdrawal from occupied
Ghajar. You will likely also hear criticisms of Lebanon's
inclusion on the list of "countries of concern" by the U.S.
Transportation Security Administration and objections about
HR 2278, the "Anti-American Incitement to Violence"
legislation that would apply sanctions to media providers
that broadcast Hizballah's "Al Manar" and "Nour" television
and radio stations. End Summary.

KEY U.S. OBJECTIVES
--------------


2. (C) Strengthening Lebanese state institutions continues to
be the primary U.S. objective in Lebanon. The U.S. has
committed over $500 million in security assistance to the
military and police since 2006 in order to support the GOL in
extending control over all Lebanese territory, including in
areas dominated by Hizballah. President Obama underscored
this objective by emphasizing the importance of controlling
arms smuggling into Lebanon during President Sleiman's
mid-December visit to Washington. Your visit here offers an
opportunity to reaffirm U.S. support for the various
Lebanon-related UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs),
such 1559 and 1701, that call for extending the state's
control over all its territory. Your interlocutors will be
keenly interested in U.S. engagements in the Arab world, with
an emphasis on the U.S. relationship with Syria and our role
in restarting Middle East peace negotiations. They will
likely emphasize Lebanese opposition to settling Palestinian
refugees in Lebanon under any such deal.

GOL CRITICIZES U.S. ACTIONS
--------------


3. (C) Meanwhile, officials throughout the GOL, including
President Sleiman, have publicly and privately objected to
the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) decision to
place Lebanon on the "countries of concern" list in the wake
of an attempted terrorist attack in the U.S. in late
December. Presidency Director General Naji Abi Assi argued
to the Ambassador that the differentiation between state
sponsors of terrorism and other countries of concern was not
properly made and the resulting sense of humiliation and
embarrassment would only benefit extremists. Concerns about
TSA policies continue to be raised with visiting U.S.
officials to Lebanon, including recent Congressional
delegations. We expect the issue will also be raised with
you and with National Security Advisor James Jones during his
January 15 visit.


4. (C) Separately, President Sleiman and others continue to
object to the U.S. House of Representatives bill, HR 2278, on
"Anti-American Incitement to Violence in the Middle East,"
which would penalize satellite and other media providers that
broadcast outlets affiliated with Foreign Terrorist
Organizations, including Hizballah's "Al Manar" and "Nour"
television and radio stations. Sleiman, in particular, has
in recent days referenced the bill, including during his
annual address to the diplomatic corps resident in Beirut on
January 12. He emphasized GOL commitment to "freedom of the

media and expression" and objected to legislation that would
prohibit it. At the reception that followed, Sleiman
explained to the Ambassador that he felt "strongly about this
issue," but he was quick to reassure her that the GOL
appreciated all military and other assistance provided by the
U.S.

GHAJAR: IMMINENT WITHDRAWAL UNLIKELY
--------------


5. (C) The GOL informally affirmed its support for the UN
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) proposal for Israeli
withdrawal from Ghajar and was prepared to welcome the
withdrawal in the context of UNSCR 1701. However, as UNIFIL
has continued discussing the logistics of such a withdrawal
with Israel, the Israeli side has raised additional security
concerns which suggest that an imminent withdrawal is
unlikely. UNSCOL Michael Williams expressed concern on
January 12 that rhetoric was escalating on both sides, thus
diminishing the possibility that an agreement would be
reached soon. We expect Williams will seek your assistance
in pressuring the GOI to step back from its new demands.
Williams will also debrief you on his recent visit to
Damascus and his consultation with the incoming UNIFIL Force
Commander.

RECENT SECURITY INCIDENTS
--------------


6. (C) As the new government has begun its work, two security
incidents have highlighted the continued threat facing
Lebanon because of the inability of its security forces to
operate in certain areas. A bomb exploded at the Hamas
headquarters in the Hizballah-controlled southern suburbs of
Beirut on December 26, and Hizballah initially prevented the
security forces from reaching the scene. While the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) took on the investigation once Hizballah
authorized its access, the incident highlighted the army's
inability to work freely in areas under Hizballah control.
Fighting on January 2 between gunmen from Fatah and Jund
al-Sham in the Ain al Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp
similarly displayed the Lebanese security forces' limited
ability to access the camps and the resulting potential for
violence to spread and destabilize the country. The LAF is
fortifying its existing perimeter security around the Baddawi
refugee camp, near the Nahr al-Barid camp that was nearly
destroyed in 2007.

"CANCELLATION" OF 1559
--------------


7. (C) Syria's allies in Lebanon have launched a campaign for
the "cancellation" of UNSCR 1559, which they see as
punitively aimed at Syria and its Lebanese allies.
Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri claimed to the Ambassador
that with the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the election
of Michel Sleiman as president, there is no longer any reason
for the resolution. Foreign Minister Ali Chami added that
the issue of militia weapons is a domestic issue outside the
purview of the international community. Meanwhile, PM Hariri
has asked the Ambassador for "ongoing U.S. support" for UNSCR
1559, although some observers now believe the issue will not
reach the cabinet because of lack of consensus. Hariri
advisor Mohamad Chatah explained that Lebanon is calling for
a broader interpretation of the resolution, including Israeli
violations that would otherwise be covered by UNSCR 1701, to
avoid provoking Syria. The issue will likely continue to
fester as the preparation of the next 1559 report this spring
nears.

SEAT ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL
--------------


8. (C) Lebanon was unanimously elected to a rotating two-year
U.N. Security Council seat, beginning in January 2010.
President Sleiman fought personally for the seat, which he
views as an opportunity to bolster his and Lebanon's
international prestige and reconfirm its sovereignty. While
Lebanon's vote will generally follow Arab League consensus,
some issues, especially those related to Iran, Middle East
peace, or Lebanon itself, could cause significant political

friction in Beirut. While we understand Lebanon's delicate
domestic environment, we want to stress that membership on
the Council is an opportunity for the Lebanese to demonstrate
responsible leadership.

HARIRI'S OUTREACH TO OTHER REGIONAL PLAYERS
--------------


9. (C) Prime Minister Saad Hariri, after finally forming a
national unity government in December, visited Damascus on
December 19-20 to establish a relationship with Syrian
President al-Asad as part of a regional detente between Syria
and Hariri's primary backer, Saudi Arabia. Prior the visit,
Hariri told the Ambassador that he "must go to Damascus to
better relations," and he cast the visit as "a new form of
achieving sovereignty and independence." Following the
visit, the PM's chief of staff (and cousin),Nader Hariri,
emphasized that the trip was a necessary adaptation to
changing regional and international dynamics. The Syrians,
he reported, were "comforting" and the Syrian President
sought to establish a "personal relationship" with the PM.
Nader Hariri said that the PM "heard all the right things"
from al-Asad, whom he described as seeking a new paradigm
based on economic cooperation rather than ideological
conflict, on the model of Syria's blossoming relationship
with Turkey. The prevailing mood in Hariri's camp following
the visit is relief, although they remain suspicious that the
Syrians will deliver on their promises. Most recently,
Hariri visited Turkey January 10-12 to boost bilateral ties
as part of his continued outreach to regional capitals.

SLEIMAN STRIVES FOR UNITY
--------------


10. (C) President Sleiman has committed himself to
representing all Lebanese and to striving for unity among
Lebanon's sectarian groups. Although the Christian
president's powers are limited by the constitution, Sleiman
has emphasized that his absolute priority is maintaining
stability in Lebanon by balancing internal and external
political forces. Sleiman has also sought to return Lebanon
to its place among the international community, as evidenced
by his push for Lebanon's Security Council seat. During his
December 14-15 visit to Washington, when you last saw him,
Sleiman publicly emphasized the need for continued U.S.
security assistance to Lebanon, complained of Israeli
violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and called on the U.S. to
ensure that any peace agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians addresses Lebanese concerns on Palestinian
refugees. Sleiman's advisors tell us that the message he
heard in Washington on the danger that arms smuggling to
Hizballah poses to Lebanon continues to resonate with him.
We expect that he will emphasize the challenges that Lebanon
faces in implementing relevant UNSCRs and ask for U.S.
commitments to constrain any possible escalation arising from
security incidents along the Israeli border.

BERRI AS LEGISLATIVE POWERBROKER
--------------


11. (C) Nabih Berri, first elected speaker of parliament
under the Syrian occupation, has held the position for 18
years and exerts a strong measure of control over the
institution. Berri also heads the Amal Party and partners
with Hizballah to represent the Shia community in Lebanon,
which is predominantly resident in the south. He will likely
emphasize that this will be your first meeting with him and
argue that you should visit south Lebanon at the earliest
opportunity. Since the formation of the new government,
Berri has publicly advanced a series of reforms, including
the abolition of sectarianism in the Lebanese political
system. Berri is a vocal opponent of international
resolutions that target Hizballah's arms, which he believes
should be addressed through the National Dialogue process.
Berri will likely lobby for U.S. pressure on Israel to
restart peace negotiations with Syria.

PM'S OFFICE TO TAKE THE LEAD ON PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
-------------- --------------


12. (C) Prime Minister Hariri accepted the resignation of

Ambassador Khalil Makkawi, previous head of the
Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee (LPDC),effective at
the end of January, and Makkawi's close advisors have already
been pushed out. Maya Majzoub, who has worked closely with
Saad's aunt, Bahia Hariri, on Lebanese-Palestinian issues
related to Saida's Ain al Hilweh camp, will assume the LPDC
portfolio, which is supported by the UN Development Program.
SISON