Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10BANGUI54
2010-02-24 12:43:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangui
Cable title:  

CAR: ELECTIONS DELAYS THREATEN CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, MAY

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT 
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P R 241243Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
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INFO RHMFISS/AFRICOM
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
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RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA 0012
RUEHNJ/USDAO NDJAMENA CD
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0215
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0013
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1496
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000054 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: CAR: ELECTIONS DELAYS THREATEN CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, MAY
FORCE CONSENSUS WITH OPPOSITION.

REF: A. A: BANGUI 41

B. B: BANGUI 42 AND PREVIOUS.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000054

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: CAR: ELECTIONS DELAYS THREATEN CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER, MAY
FORCE CONSENSUS WITH OPPOSITION.

REF: A. A: BANGUI 41

B. B: BANGUI 42 AND PREVIOUS.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Central African constitutional and
electoral law stipulates that elections must occur 105 days
before the end of the government's mandate, with the Council of
Ministers announcing elections at least 60 days before the
planned date. Although the Independent Electoral Commission
(IEC) issued a calendar indicating April 18 as the date of the
elections, the Council failed to announce a date. Although
February 26 is the last possible date the government can call
for elections in order to avoid running afoul of constitutional
stipulations, many experts believe that the government cannot
announce elections in the near term due to technical and funding
shortfalls, as well as continued controversy swirling around the
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and the Disarmament,
Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) process (Ref A). While
most observes suspect that the involved actors will negotiate
around the Constitution's demands, the international community
faces the awkward choice of insisting on flawed but timely
elections or accepting a delay in hopes of ensuring a more
inclusive and transparent process. END SUMMARY.

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ELECTION'S LEGAL WINDOW CLOSING
--------------


2. (U) According to the Central African Constitution and
Electoral Code, presidential and legislative elections must
transpire 45 days before the end of the mandate. With the
current presidential and legislative mandate ending June 11,
elections should take place by April 26. Concurrently, the
Electoral Code stipulates that the government must announce
elections 60 days before the date of the vote - meaning that
government must announce elections by February 26 to maintain
the integrity of the electoral process.

-------------- --------------
TOO MANY OBSTACLES REMAIN FOR TIMELY ELECTIONS
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The European Commission (EC) recently secured an extra
2.5 million Euros for the UNDP elections basket fund, bringing

their total to 6.5 million Euros (8.5 million USD). However,
observer predictions that the costs of the elections are now
likely to exceed 21 million USD temper this good news. This is
an increase of over 5 million USD from original UNDP estimates
(Ref A),and no other countries or institutions plan further
contributions as of this report. Furthermore, the UNDP, charged
with helping the CARG and IEC to organize the elections,
continues to suffer from staffing and financial shortfalls. They
have yet to complete the paperwork needed for the EC to make
their contribution to the basket fund and they have only hired
two of twelve proposed electoral experts.


4. (SBU) As reported in Ref A, the Independent Electoral
Commission is moribund pending a presidential decree that will
formalize its new members. Though this should happen within the
week, the planned audit of the IEC President's finances
continues to await assignment to an auditor. The opposition
accepted the government's demand to choose the auditor, but only
under jointly negotiated terms of reference. It is clear they
still hope to unearth mismanagement by the President and call
for his replacement.


5. (SBU) The electoral census is sure to pose another stumbling
block: The President of the IEC seeks a simple update of the

BANGUI 00000054 002 OF 003


electoral lists of 2005 as a way to reduce the burdens on the
IEC's preparations for the vote, but the opposition is concerned
that creating electoral lists ``on the cheap'' when much of the
population in the North has been displaced will disenfranchise
many potential voters and seeks a new census in the name of
transparency. (Note: The IEC President is mindful of the fact
that the Ministry of the Interior would approve updated
electoral lists, but the full IEC would need to approve new
lists. End Note.) The UN estimates that 300,000 Central
Africans are currently displaced or seeking refuge in
neighboring countries as a result of war and forced displacement
since the last election. This problem is particularly acute in
the opposition's stronghold in the northwest. A full census
would ensure that more of the affected parties could vote, but
the investment in time would dampen any chances of a timely
election.


6. (SBU) The stalled DDR also raises questions about the safety
and security of any possible election (Ref A). All agree that
elections without the DDR will be extremely difficult. Yet in a
recent speech, President Bozize blamed DDR implementation delays
on the president of the Army for the Restitution of Democracy
(APRD) militia, Jean Jacques Demafouth and his own Minister of
Communication, Cyriaque Gonda. Ignoring the mistrust that many
in the militia have for his administration, he claims their
leaders stole large quantities of money meant for the militia
members and that they are to blame for the lack of progress in
the DDR. Bozize went on to say he will ``point a knife'' at
those that threatened him and that he will ``skin trouble
makers''.


7. (SBU) The Mediator of the Republic, who played a key role in
finding a solution to the IEC's impasse, suggested to the CDA in
a recent meeting that the President does not understand that his
aggressive posturing will slow the DDR. Post suspects that
Bozize's intimate familiarity with coups and political violence
leaves him consistently nervous that others seek to unseat him.
He said as much to the Mediator when he spoke of fears that the
militia men will simply use the money they receive to buy
weapons to attack him (NOTE: This would be difficult as the
militia members are set to receive just USD 130 for three months
worth of food while they await demobilization. END
NOTE.).Therefore, the seeming contradiction of wanting
elections, but not taking the necessary steps to implement DDR
suggests he fears that a peaceable northwest poses not only an
electoral, but also physical, threat to him. Unfortunately, few
others believe legitimate elections are possible without the
increased peace and stability promised by the DDR.

-------------- --------------
DELAYS IMPOSE DIFFICULT CHOICES
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Most observers continue to agree that
President Bozize wants elections, which are vital to maintaining
his legitimacy. However, the opposition persists in their
spoiler tactics, hoping for greater leverage in negotiations to
solve the impending crisis. The delayed elections threaten the
integrity of the constitution, but the conventional wisdom is
that if the President and opposition can reach an agreement over
the timing and implementation of the elections, the National
Assembly will find a way to extend the current mandate and avoid
a legal crisis. Most observers in the international community
are ready to accept such a compromise provided the parties reach
a consensus and the elections occur this year.


BANGUI 00000054 003 OF 003



9. (SBU) The lack of voter lists, local electoral commissions,
trained elections workers and materials, and a lack of funding
all suggest a mere two to three week delay will not suffice.
This pushes the electoral calendar up against the rains, which
usually stretch from May to October, and bring the country to a
standstill. If the census work commences before the rains and
the sides strike a political deal, the elections date may be
pushed back as late as November or December 2010. END COMMENT.
SMITH