Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10BANGUI29
2010-02-01 15:20:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangui
Cable title:  

BOZIZE PARRIES OPPOSITION THIS TIME, BUT ELECTORAL CALENDAR

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT 
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RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1456
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000029 

SENSITIVE
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DEPT FOR AF/C
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PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: BOZIZE PARRIES OPPOSITION THIS TIME, BUT ELECTORAL CALENDAR
IS TIGHTENING

REF: A. A 09 BANGUI 181

B. REF: B 09 BANGUI 203

C. REF: C 09 BANGUI 46

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000029

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: BOZIZE PARRIES OPPOSITION THIS TIME, BUT ELECTORAL CALENDAR
IS TIGHTENING

REF: A. A 09 BANGUI 181

B. REF: B 09 BANGUI 203

C. REF: C 09 BANGUI 46


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On Saturday, January 30, 2010, President
Francois Bozize convoked the Central African political class and
the Bangui diplomatic corps to discuss and resolve a contretemps
over the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). He further took
the opportunity to address, but not give clear answers to, the
questions about the missing Central African politician and rebel
leader, Charles Massi. The event was especially interesting as
while it follows a format that Bozize has used before - airing
an internal dispute before the international community - it is
perhaps the first time that he has really been able to do
political theatre with any success. Still, with each delay
provoked by the opposition, critical time is lost for elections
preparation - a fact that may lead to considerable controversy
going forward. END SUMMARY


2. (U) On January 13 a document from the Collective of Forces
for Change - made up of the opposition umbrella organization
National Union of Concerned Citizens (UFVN),several members of
the non-aligned parties and one politico-military group -
circulated Bangui. It denounced the IEC and its leader, Pastor
Binguimale for partisanship, corruption, and various other ills.
This group suspended its participation in the IEC and put forth
the following complaints and demands:

-- The allegation that Binguimale is partisan in favor of
President Bozize and must resign as a ``non negotiable''
precondition for them to return to the IEC.

-- Allegations of irregularities in the formation of local
electoral committees, both in the CAR and abroad (specifically
by the consulate in Douala, Cameroon) and that all the local
committees must be dissolved.

-- A demand for an audit of IEC funds and spending. (Rumor has
it that there are serious irregularities; especially by the
Chair.)

-- A demand that the implementation of the 2008 Inclusive
Political Dialogue's recommendation that a representative -

meaning a presidential majority and opposition - committee be
established to deal with future political questions. (Comment:
This demand may signal the opposition's attempt to form what
they hope will be the backbone of a transitional government if
the elections of 2010 are not held in time [Ref A]. End
Comment).


3. (SBU) In a stroke of uncharacteristically deft political
theatre, President Bozize convoked the entire IEC, his
government, the opposition parties, the trade unions, and the
diplomatic corps, to appear before him in a recorded and
televised event broadcast from the Presidential palace. (Note:
During a February 1 meeting with Emboffs, the UN Secretary
General's Special Representative revealed that she had counseled
Bozize a few days before to address the opposition's criticisms.
End Note.) Bozize launched the spectacle by having the
Minister of Communication read the opposition's document aloud.
He then called on various members of the IEC and the opposition
to explain themselves; either to repeat their charges or to
provide excuses/explanations for their performance.


4. (SBU) Bozize has used this format before, most memorably to
give the supreme constitutional court a face saving wire
brushing when he was forced by the French to reinstall the court

BANGUI 00000029 002 OF 003


in late 2007. The great difference this time was the skill with
which he kept everyone on the defensive while portraying himself
as the father of the nation who was stepping in to put the
electoral process back on track and prevent the ``Somalization''
of the CAR. He gave everyone a chance to speak, but firmly
silenced heckling.


5. (U) As the senior diplomat present in the French Ambassador's
absence, President Bozize asked Ambassador Cook to speak for the
international community. Noting that he could only speak for the
United States, the Ambassador reaffirmed the basic U.S. message:

-- The U.S. is not partisan in the electoral process; a process
that must be run by the Central Africans themselves.

-- All armed groups must put down their weapons and participate
in the political process.

-- The U.S. recognizes only one elected government and calls on
that government to protect the human rights of its population
and to encourage economic development.

-- The U.S. calls on all Central African parties to make peace
with each other and to make good use of the generous
international assistance programs in the CAR.
(These comments met with public applause and private
congratulations, from members of the Diplomatic Corps as well as
both the government and opposition.)

Bozize then passed judgment:

-- There would be an audit of the IEC's finances.

-- The local electoral committees would be dissolved and new
committees created.

-- Complaints would be resolved by the Head of the National
Council of Mediation (Mediator) and the International
Organization of the Francophonie, but not any new organization.


6. (SBU) This was a skillful bit of give and take. It allowed
Bozize to take the high road, stressing the independence of the
IEC and thus isolating himself from any fallout that may occur,
while at the same time, throwing disputes back on the Mediator,
the disgraced former Archbishop of Bangui, who owes his
political (if not spiritual) salvation to Bozize. (Note: The
Archbishop was defrocked after Vatican authorities discovered
his dalliances with several mistresses. End Note.)


7. (SBU) Bozize then invited commentary about Charles Massi (Ref
B),asking both the opposition and human rights representative
to make remarks. After listening to the charges, sourced from
various international media, Bozize gave a most interesting
non-answer. First, he set the stage by wondering aloud why there
was so much ``human rights'' interest vis a vis Massi
considering that he claimed to be with the militia groups
responsible for violence in northeastern CAR (He made no mention
of Soukoumba. [Ref C]). Where, he asked, was the concern for
members of the Central African military (FACA) and civilians who
had been killed? Why did none of the people so worried about
Massi's human rights today not warn him of the dangers of
engaging in armed conflict before he took to the bush? In
response to allegations by Massi's wife that the President had
personally tortured the former Minister, Bozize said that he had
last seen Massi in N'Djamena, right after Massi left the
government and that he had refused to meet with him at that time.

BANGUI 00000029 003 OF 003




8. (SBU) COMMENT: While the mechanics of the meeting were a
rocky and it was a bit jolting for a head of state to say that
he had missed some things as he had, ``ten thousand things to
do,'' Bozize did appear more in control and presidential during
this performance than usual. Bozize is not normally a
comfortable orator but he tends to unwind a bit more when he
speaks in Sango. Indeed some members of the government have been
known to cringe as his Sango speeches are not scripted and have
a much stronger populist flair(Note: During this 2010 new year's
address, he threatened to ``carve up'' all who opposed him. END
NOTE). During this entire performance, this time in French,
Bozize appeared at ease, grilling people, making jokes, and
finally pronouncing his decisions.


9. (SBU) The Collective of Forces for Change have yet to
publically respond to the President's gambit and it appears that
they may have been out-maneuvered by Bozize this time. The
press, even those normally critical of the President, are
congratulating him for conducting an open dialogue with all the
relevant actors. Additionally, the opposition's lack of a
response, even some two days after the meeting, is symbolic of
the deep divisions and rivalries among them. Nonetheless, it may
be possible that this two week stalemate has accomplished a
major goal for the opposition: many observers are starting to
seriously worry that the elections will be delayed for
organizational reasons, edging the opposition ever closer to its
goal of a constitutional crisis and a transitional government.
Thus, while Bozize may have displayed remarkable political
acumen and clearly still wants elections on schedule, each
crisis provoked by the opposition decreases the chances he will
succeed. END COMMENT.
COOK