Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10BANGUI1
2010-01-05 06:49:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangui
Cable title:  

THE ELECTION PROCESS IN THE CAR - A WORK IN PROGRESS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 050649Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1115
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0011
RHMFISS/AFRICOM
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0256
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0359
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0372
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0271
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0211
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0194
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0560
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0549
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0193
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0536
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1410
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000001 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: THE ELECTION PROCESS IN THE CAR - A WORK IN PROGRESS

REF: A 09 BANGUI 275

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000001

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: THE ELECTION PROCESS IN THE CAR - A WORK IN PROGRESS

REF: A 09 BANGUI 275


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The electoral prospectus for the 2010 Central
African (CAR) presidential and legislative elections was
announced by electoral authorities last month, but with a tight
schedule and continuing violence in many parts of the country,
the CAR will face many challenges in meeting the timeline. Some
of the tests include: conducting a thorough and transparent
electoral census, a shortfall in financial resources and
national infrastructure, and assuring the inclusion of the large
number of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees in the
process. The international community is also working to
increase the participation of women as candidates. While the
Central African Government (CARG) has committed publically to
holding timely, free, and transparent elections, a lack of
resources and a questionable political will may exclude many
Central Africans from participating in the democratic process.
END SUMMARY.

--------------
Electoral Timeline
--------------


2. (SBU) On December 17, 2009 the Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) announced the following electoral timetable for
the Central African Republic:

-- Electoral census - December 28, 2009 to February 7, 2010
-- Filing and examination of candidate applications - March 6 to
March 20
-- Election Campaign - April 3 to 16
-- First round of presidential and legislative elections - April
18
-- Second round (if needed) - May 23
-- Proclamation of the results on June 7, 2010

Some significant international partners such as France and the
European Commission (EC) question the feasibility of the
implementation of the electoral timetable (Ref A),but the IEC
has confirmed that the timeline, while certainly ambitious, is
workable and stressed that the plan was approved by a consensus
of all parties to the IEC.

--------------
Election Hurdles
--------------


3. (SBU) The IEC recently reported that some of the 2005
electoral voter lists, long thought to have been lost, were
found in an abandoned government building. The discovery of the

lists at this late date has sparked some concern over whether or
not the rolls were actually ``found'' or if new lists -
favorably to the CARG - had been created. Rumors and
accusations have been circulating, claiming that the government
is engaging village chiefs and mayors - who are appointed by the
President - to clandestinely prepare electoral lists favorable
to the ruling KNK party. To address these concerns, the IEC
stated that all lists as well as the processes used to create
the lists would be thoroughly reviewed before being certified.


4. (U) Regardless, with the discovery of the new rolls, a debate
over the elector census has begun in earnest. With the alleged
2005 lists in hand, the President of the IEC is calling for a
simple updating of the lists, instead of the scheduled electoral
census. IEC opposition members, however, have objected and
insist on a full, transparent electoral census with the
assistance of the international community. (Note: The
opposition de facto only represents one-sixth of the IEC. End
Note) Although Regional Coordinators and IEC staff deployed on

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December 28 to the various prefectures of the republic, we are
waiting to see if they perform a full census or simply update
the ``discovered'' lists. With a condensed timeline, a lack of
resources, and an estimated 1.8M eligible voters to be
registered, Post suspects that only a simple update to the 2005
lists will take place.


5. (SBU) Within the problem of creating the electoral lists
resides the quandary of how to include IDPs and refugees.
International partners and the opposition continue to raise the
need to include the 162,000 IDPs and 130,000 refugees - who
represent 8 percent of the population - in the electoral
process. The IEC is investigating the possibility of organizing
voter registration at IDP locations throughout the country, but
acknowledges the logistical hurdles in doing so. In addition,
the IEC is discussing the enfranchisement of refugees living in
Chad, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the
Republic of the Congo. CAR consulates within these countries
will probably not be able to assist with voter registration of
refugees in any meaningful way given their lack of resources and
ambition to assist voters likely hostile to the current
government.


6. (SBU) The opposition continues to demand that the government
create an environment conducive for the return of refugees and
IDPs, but observers are not optimistic on this count as the
prefectures most affected by displacement and insecurity are
exactly those that are least likely to vote for Bozize. Thus,
with just three and a half months remaining before the elections
and with insecurity still widespread throughout the regions that
has produced IDPs and refugees, it seems unlikely that these
people will play a major role in the ballot.


7. (U) The involvement of women in the 2010 elections is also a
priority for the international community, although Central
African women historically have not played a large role in
public life. Currently less than 10 percent of the Deputies to
the National Assembly are female. In order to encourage the
participation of women in the political process, the UN and
other donors are taking the following steps:

-- The UN's Office for Central Africa (BONUCA) financed a
training session for 35 potential female candidates last month
-- The UNDP is hiring a Gender Expert to increase participation
of women in the electoral process and to recruit women into the
electoral staff.
--The Association of Women Lawyers (AFJ) plans to conduct
election monitoring for the 2010 ballot.
--A local women rights lobbying group, Group of 23, has called
for a 30 percent quota for seats for female representatives in
the National Assembly.

While it is unlikely that this target will be met, their
initiative is an important step. Women's groups have
historically played a key role in the Central African elections
by providing voter education and election monitoring.


8. (SBU) Regional and municipal elections, scheduled by law for
this ballot, increasingly appear to be an afterthought in the
minds of the IEC. In the electoral timeline announced by the
IEC, there is no mention of regional and municipal elections.
As a result, Post worries that the CARG will continue the
standard practice of having the President appoint mayors and
town council members.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Although the Bozize administration and IEC
have reiterated their commitment to timely, transparent, and
inclusive elections, the uncertainty surrounding the electoral

BANGUI 00000001 003 OF 003


census and participation of refugees and IDPs remains a concern.
Post will endeavor over the following months, in conjunction
with other observers, to discern legitimate excuses over
resources and logistical challenges from a lack of will on the
part of the authorities to provide enfranchisement to qualified
Central Africans. END COMMENT.
COOK