RRT ERBIL: EFFORTS TO CONTROL CLASHES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000516

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/I

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2020
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ASEC KTER IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: EFFORTS TO CONTROL CLASHES IN
SULAIMANIYAH

REF: A. BAGHDAD 0417

B. BAGHDAD 0515

Classified By: RRT Erbil Team Leader Andrew Snow for Reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (U) This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT)
cable.


2. (C) Summary: Sulaimaniyah's election security committee
broadcast the decision February 19 to ban all outdoor
campaign activities in Sulaimaniyah province between the
hours of 9:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. through the end of the
campaign period. The Ambassador's Senior Advisor to Northern
Iraq (SANI) expressed concern over the violence to President
Barzani's Chief of Staff Fuad Hussein and Kurdistan Region
Minister of the Interior (KMOI) Kareem Sinjari, both from the
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). RRT Erbil Team Leader also
called for restraint on local television. End summary.

SANI and Team Leader Encourage Restraint
--------------


3. (C) On February 17 and 18 SANI and RRT Team Leader met
with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) senior officials and
expressed concern over the growing threat of violence
especially in Sulaimaniyah and Kirkuk. SANI told KMOI that
the level of friction between the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK) and Goran is alarming, adding that if the
violence continues it will harm the credibility of the
election. SANI and Team Leader also passed a message of
concern to KRG Vice President and senior PUK leader Kosrat
Rasoul through his son. On February 22 KMOI told Team Leader
that he had met with representatives of all the political
parties and stressed that all sides avoid violence and adhere
strictly to IHEC campaign rules. Sinjari also asked the
Goran representative to pass a message to Goran leader
Nawshirwan Mustafa that he make a television appearance and
call on his supporters to remain calm and not resort to
violence. Team Leader suggested President Talabani should do
the same. Sinjari said if Nawshirwan does it first, he can
embarrass Talabani into doing it. (Note: In a February 23
meeting with SANI, Goran senior leader, and former
Sulaimaniyah governor, Dana Ahmed Majeed, said that Mustafa
had already addressed followers with this message on February

21. End note.)


4. (C) SANI also warned President Barzani,s Chief of Staff
Dr. Fuad Hussein that there is concern that there could be a
serious incident in Kirkuk or Sulaimaniyah in the near future
if tensions were not tempered. Hussein agreed that the
situation was not good, but attributed it mostly to party
supporters failing to control themselves late at night due to
a combination of youthful exuberance and too much alcohol.
He said that he would ask KRG President Barzani to tell
people not to campaign late at night. In SANI's meeting with
KMOI, Sinjari said that he had already called for a meeting
with the election security committee, and was planning to
meet with them later on February 18. (Note: The committee,
which consists of the three provincial governors, IHEC, and
the chiefs of police, decided to limit campaigning in
Sulaimaniyah to no later than 9:00 p.m. End Note.) Sinjari
also expressed some mistrust of the Goran movement, saying
that he hoped that Goran would listen.


5. (SBU) In a series of interviews with Iraqi Kurdistan
Region (IKR)-based television stations (both ruling party-
and opposition-linked),RRT Team Leader has also called on
all party leaders to urge their followers to exercise
restraint and avoid violence.


PUK Tough Guys Allegedly Driving the Decisions
-------------- -


6. (C) During a meeting February 18 with RRTOff, Kurdistan
Q6. (C) During a meeting February 18 with RRTOff, Kurdistan
Strategic Studies Center director Farid Asasard, who is also
a member of PUK's 30-member leadership committee, said that
there is a greater degree of both excitement and tension in
the public than during the July regional parliamentary
elections. Asasard agrees that it is in PUK's interest to
calm supporters, emotions, but many in the leadership
believe PUK needs to make a public showing that they are
tough and will not bend in front of an opponent like Goran.
According to Asasard, some in the leadership have said, "If
they throw one stone, we'll throw ten!" He said the PUK
leadership is especially sensitive to the need to get enough
votes to justify another term for Jalal Talabani as Iraqi
president. Asasard said that it is especially difficult to
control both youth, because they are by nature unpredictable,


and hired supporters, because they are loyal to their
benefactors. PUK needs to make a stronger effort to
encourage restraint through the media, but it will still be
difficult to control these two groups, he said.


7. (C) In a meeting with RRTOff February 18, Goran deputy
head Muhammad Tofiq expressed grave concern for the welfare
of Goran's supporters. He said that there had been six
people hit by gunfire and all had been Goran supporters.
(Note: The RRT has only been able to confirm four gunshot
injuries: three to Goran supporters on the night of February
16 and one to a visitor from Khanaqin on the night of
February 18, who was not a supporter of either party. End
note.) Tofiq said that the Goran representative on the
election security committee had reported that the PUK
representative had said in the committee's most recent
meeting that PUK decisions are being taken far above his
level, and he was skeptical whether his leadership would
listen to the counsel of the committee. Tofiq claimed that
he tells supporters daily that they need to stay calm and
exercise restraint. Tofiq said he had told Talabani years
ago that the PUK needed to make the transition from an
underground military movement into an organization in which
violence and intimidation were left behind. However Talabani
always had excuses why it was not the right time to make this
transformation.

Election Security Committee Actively Engaged
--------------


8. (C) In a February 21 discussion with RRTstaff, Zana
Salih, Sulaimaniyah District Manager and member of the
election security committee, said that the situation had
calmed following the decision to ban public campaigning after
9:00 p.m., but there were indications that PUK had not
complied with the new mandate. The committee had informed
Malband officials of the violations and the need to follow
IHEC's decision. Acting provincial governor Bahroz Qashani
was dispatched to meet with Malband officials, asking that
they help to maintain order by complying with IHEC's new
regulations, and they pledged to do so. Salih said, "I will
believe it when I see it." Salih attributes the higher
number of problems this time, over the July regional election
campaign, to the insertion of the Asayish in the security
mix; in July the Asayish were reportedly not involved.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The decision to restrict campaigning through the
night in Sulaimaniyah is a practical decision to lower the
political temperature. It is unclear however, whether all
sides will respect enforcement of the decision and
voluntarily cease their activities. There are initial
indications that PUK violated the 9:00 deadline in the days
following its pronouncement. Even though there are signs
that Goran restrained its supporters in the first couple of
days after the new policy came into effect, it appears that
after seeing PUK supporters not respecting the deadline,
Goran supporters have also pushed the time envelope. IHEC
has levied fines against the parties, but these minor fines
will not be a strong enough disincentive for them to
discontinue their unhelpful actions. End Comment.
HILL