ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000066

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E JAMES LIDDLE
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS
DOC FOR RTELCHIN
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN
LONDON FOR PETER LORD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ECPS MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE


1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update
for February 1 - 5, a periodic unclassified review of major
political, economic, and commercial events and information from the
U.S. Mission to Madagascar and Comoros.

POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-6)
- French Deputies Support TGV
- TGV's Diplomatic Follies in Washington and Addis
- HAT and Opposition Meetings Both Fall Short of a Quorum
- Monja Calls for National Conference
- Pierrot Launches Political Coalition

ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 7-9)
- EASSy: Madagascar to Connect to East Africa
- Lost Gold Spurs Effort to Control Mining Sector
- Rosewood Exploitation Moves South

END SUMMARY

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POLITICS
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2. (SBU) TGV COURTS FRENCH DEPUTIES: Despite receiving a fairly
tough message by the French executive, HAT President Andry Rajoelina
reportedly rallied seven deputies from the French national assembly
to his cause. Deputy Jean-Francois Mancel issued a communique that
appeared in local Malagasy press on Feb 3 stating:

Since the precipitous and beneficial departure of former President
Marc Ravalomanana, the High Transition Authority led by Andry
Rajoelina has not been able to validate its international status.
The international community has not facilitated this task by
imposing unbearable constraints, notably by the installation of
three political movements of former presidents who, in various ways,
did not leave through the front door of Malagasy history.
Henceforth, we must advance quickly from realistic bases in the
interest of the Malagasy people who will increasingly suffer from
the political instability. Given that President Rajoelina has shown
that he is able to organize free elections in a reasonable
timeframe, it is imperative that the concerned nations, of Africa
and of Europe and notably France, promote the democratic process
with him, giving the word to the people.


3. (SBU) HAT INTERNATIONAL LOBBYING: While Rajoelina advocated in
Paris on behalf of his regime, HAT delegations were sent to the
U.S., the African Union in Addis Ababa, and the European Union in
Brussels. These missions met with both government representatives
and non-governmental contacts. Local media reported that a
three-person HAT delegation had been received by Ambassador Phil
Carter and also erroneously that the delegation had been received by
the "Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs." The meetings
were portrayed by some in the Malagasy media as a positive step
towards recognition, and an opportunity to "clarify" HAT positions
on the current political impasse, although most remained much
lower-profile than Rajoelina in Paris. One article went so far as to
state that French, US and Swiss participants in these meetings had
agreed to assist with the elections and provide election observers.
None of the delegations have reported any concrete result from their
mission.


4. (SBU) HAT ELECTION CONFERENCE SUFFERS LOW ATTENDANCE: On
Rajoelina's order, the Ombudswoman of the Republic organized a
one-day conference on Feb 2 to further discuss the elections
preparation. Two of the main civil society organizations on
elections (SeFaFi and KMF-CNOE) actively participated, but
attendance was otherwise poor, with most opposition politicians
avoiding the event. Participants focused on the need to set up an
Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI),and proposed new
dates (May 19 or 24) for the legislative election, originally
planned for Mar 20. On Feb 4-5, Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina
(Ravalomanana's short-lived "co-president" in the November
transition government) organized a separate conference to discuss
crisis resolution and election plans, but it was cut short (to only
a half day) once Ravalomanana announced his opposition to the
meeting. The FIS military unit controlled by Rajoelina again sought
unsuccessfully to arrest Fetison, who appears to also be losing the
support of his own movement. All sides are now awaiting the
consequences of the impending AU deadline for a return to the
Maputo/Addis accords of 2009.


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5. (SBU) MONJA CALLS FOR NATIONAL CONFERENCE: Former HAT prime
minister, coup leader, and militant Monja Roindefo told the
Ambassador Feb 1 that his movement had ousted President Ravalomanana
because of his undemocratic behavior and poor governance, without
appearing to see the irony in his remarks. Roindefo is personally
bitter against Ravalomanana because of administrative hurdles
imposed during the 2006 presidential election that resulted in
Roindefo's ballots not getting to the polling stations. He also
alleged that Ravalomanana had ordered the district and high court to
invalidate the results of the legislative election in 2007 in which
he was elected as deputy for his hometown in the South. He explained
that he is also opposed to TGV's unilateral moves to elections and
requested the international community's support for a national
conference to create consensus among all the interested parties,
rather than merely among the four movements that were involved in
the Maputo process. He argued that the Maputo charter would never
work because the four movements were all seeking to gain places in
the government to use state resources to finance election campaigns.
The Ambassador replied that the international community viewed
consensus as the only way forward, but wasn't wedded to a particular
set-up, and urged Roindefo to work with Ravalomanana, HAT, and other
party representatives to achieve consensus.


6. (SBU) PIERROT RAJAONARIVELO LAUNCHES "MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY": On
January 28-29, former Deputy Prime Minister (and Ratsiraka-era
Ambassador to the U.S.) Pierrot Rajaonarivelo launched a new
political "movement", formally entering the crowded political arena
after months on the sidelines. Rajaonarivelo has been laying the
groundwork for the Mouvement pour la Democratie de Madagascar (MDM)
since at least September 2009, and claims that 117 political parties
and civil society organizations from around Madagascar have signed
onto his new platform. In the near future, the movement is expected
to transform into a political party, and will likely field
candidates when elections are finally held; Rajaonarivelo himself is
expected to make a presidential bid. Rajaonarivelo appears to
support many of the goals of the Rajoelina (TGV) camp, including a
focus on rewriting the constitution and launching a "fourth
republic", but has remained carefully independent of all four
existing movements, and has made clear his intention to stay outside
of the transition government. He has called for the holding of a
national conference to discuss constitutional reform and proposed
the creation of a third chamber of parliament made up of traditional
tribal leaders.

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ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL
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7. (U) EASSY TO CONNECT MADAGASCAR TO EAST AFRICA: Patrick Hamida,
General Manager of Madagascar's telecommunication company (TELMA),
announced that the East African Submarine System (EASSy) cable will
reach Tulear, in the Southeast of the country, between March 8 and

10. As TELMA already completed the national backbone to which the
EASSY cable will be connected, it is poised to rapidly roll out high
speed internet throughout the country.


8. (U) CREATION OF A COMMITTEE TO SECURE MINING REVENUE: Following
an ill-fated smuggling endeavor in which a 4 kilogram gold bar was
found on board an AIR MAD plane returning from Guangzhou, the de
facto regime is ramping up efforts to control the mining sector. An
inter-ministerial committee composed of officials from six
ministries, the port, and the airport will be created to fight
corruption and illegal shipment of precious stones.


9. (SBU) ROSEWOOD EXPLOITATION MOVES SOUTH: Former North Mananara
Deputy Zakahely Boniface told Emboff Feb 1 that there were
approximately 600 tons of felled rosewood in and around Mananara
national park in eastern Madagascar, south of the main destruction
zones of Marojejy and Masoala national parks. He said there were
about twenty people involved in cutting down the trees, but now they
were afraid to sell the wood because of the rosewood task force and
military present in the area. Although that enforcement news at
first may seem positive, Boniface went on to assert that the
military were taking the wood themselves to the north for sale and
export and personally reaping the benefits. He alleged that HAT
president Rajoelina was involved and benefitting as well. [Bio
note: Boniface was one of eleven independent deputies elected in
2007, despite intimidation by the military, and was imprisoned by
Ravalomanana in 2002 and 2008 for, he claims, political reasons.
End note.]


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